SabertStxVii Week 11 College Football Picks
First off, I’d like to apologizes for everyone that commented a question, or tweeted a question to me last week. I was displaced from society in the Caribbean for the week, as well as dealing with apartment flooding issues in NYC. Before I get to my Week 11 College Football Picks, just a little bit of insight I thought about while drinking “Painkillers” on the beach.
44 thoughts on “SabertStxVii Week 11 College Football Picks”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
Just out of curiosity, when is the last time you missed a 4 unit play?
Snow — don’t jinx me!
3.5: 3-0
4: 2-0
4.5: 1-0
With that being said, game of inches and luck. Just gotta try and be on the best side possible. If Griffin goes down in the Tulane one, I still think they have a shot, but it would have NEVER been a 4 unit play.
Haha. I’d be taking that bath too. Hit it hard already yesterday.
Thoughts on tonight’s Ohio/Bowling Green game? I like Ohio, but the better defense getting points always makes me a bit nervous.
Sorry I didn’t see this. I tweeted that my lean was on Ohio but I am trying my hardest to stay off of the MACtion this year. So unpredictable and my system doesn’t like that conference unless you’re a consistent team like N. Illinois.
Saber thanks for all the plays this year and your insight, especially on the BTB forum.
Would you be open to letting us know how your coaching matrix system works?
Yeah of course. Glad I can help I enjoy posting and hearing others opinions. I learn a lot on BTB.
So my coaching system takes a bunch of stats that I think coaches have a big impact on. I would love to add some more “edges” to the system but right now I look at wins on the road, RZ O/D, RZ TD % O/D, 1D O/D, 3D O/D, Penalties, Turnovers. I think coaches can control game planning, discipline, and playcalling. turnovers can be a bit of luck I think, but I believe it is a function of playcalling.
From these stats, I have a ranking matrix that correlates each stat to a percent that they effect winning, and ultimately that ranks each team. The ususal suspects are at the top, with Bama being heads and toes above the rest, with Kansas St. being right on up there.
Ok great.
I’m new to the whole PR thing. Developing my formula. But, having trouble with transferring the data.
Is there any way you do your PR on excel on a mac?
Trial and error is the best way to do it. Great thing about this field is you can back test it with so much sample size.
EWWWWwwwwww I still have a PC for a few reasons and a big one is excel. In PC you can use webqueries to download data offline with the click of a button. I tried to do this on Mac on one of my buddies computers and I couldn’t figure it out.
What I’ve learned in excel (macros and non-macros) is from google. You can pretty much google anything with excel and there are great forums out there for that. I think webquieres are the best way to get a bunch of stats downloaded and then you can splice them however you need from there.
Just started following your picks last week after watching the board for about a month. I am very impressed with your matrix and how you approach capping games. I’m up overall this year, but lack consistency. I like the play on Tulane, curious what your thoughts are on continuing to fade Umass. They look like they have accepted their fate the past few weeks against Vandy and again last week against NIU.
Thank Bobby. The hardest thing is consistency. For example, I LOVED fading Tulane, and I LOVED riding La Tech, but at some point, you have to be able to , in finance trading terms, “exit the position.” At some point, it will turn against you.
That is a big reason why I am not a huge fan of trends. You can find a trend out there to support any play you make. Who says that trend holds up? There are millions of different variable in a football game, so saying that one trend is statistically significant seems a bit erroneous to me.
Continuing to fade UMASS may be a good thought here but Akron is just SO soooo bad. The past two times I/we were on UMASS, they were playing 2 teams that I have ranked in the Top 50. They got close to covering that 17 number vs BG, they covered it against Ohio and Miami — two decent MAC teams.
They were totally out skilled in their past two games. NIU has been top of the MAC for a few years and has been recruiting well, and Vandy is an SEC team. I actually may lean Mass here, but its tough to read the motivation of a team thats on the tail end of a 3 game road trip after traveling everywhere and having nothing to play for.
Just my thoughts, I will probably lay off this one as I see some better opportunities out there, but my lean would probably be them covering this one. Akron’s D is a joke.
Hey sabe need a sure winner for tonights games
No such thing as a sure winner. If there was Vegas wouldn’t be in business. I have 3.5 units on FSU tonight, which is a bigger than normal Thursday play for me. JimmyShivers is on it as well.
Ok sabe sounds great this sight is awesome and love your insight to these games and the format you use
When I was in Vegas, I took two games of the year at Golden Nugget just for fun. Both of my picks faded FSU (Florida +7.5 and Virginia Tech +3). I think the Florida bet still has value but man was I wrong about Va tech. I’ll be taking FSU -14 and hoping that I don’t double my losses.
I definitely think that the Florida bet has some value. I think that line is within a FG either way, barring any crazy stuff happening.
Goodluck tonight my friend, we are on the same side. I think we are in good shape, but you never know.
Ahhh, I got middled. Oh well, I kind of set myself up for it. Why didn’t FSU just play for the field goal? I think the hardest part of sports betting is learning to let go and move on.
Seth,
You are absolutely right. That is one of the hardest things to learn. I suggest having some sort of system that tells you how much to bet. With a system in place, you won’t try and “double-up” when you are down, and you won’t short-change other bets either.
One of the best mindset of a gambler is having a short-memory in some instances.
FSU left alot to be desired last night and I thought was terribly coached. It happens, we move on, and will get it back this weekend or somewhere along the way.
Thanks as Always for your input. Line now FSU -12.5, someone or some group is now on the VT side.
BOL as Always
I saw that Doug…Tulane also moved back to a PK, although LVH still has it at 1. Will bury yourself if you try to chase steam. I look at it, but never try to make a play based on it.
Goodluck tonight doug.
A ton of big money came in on VT driving down the line. The over dropped steadily over the past few days as well. I teased FSU and got by on the skin of my teeth! They left a ton of points out there this evening.
Navycross — totally agree with you here. FSU left tons of points out there and did exactly what they had to to win. On paper, this team is heads and toes better than VT, and i thought they would play like it.
Bad playcalling and dominated in the trenches. VT played with the super bowl effect, and it showed.
Congrats on sneakin by with the tease!
Still early but not looming good
What am I missing on this Pitt line? Pitt is consistent on both sides of the ball, Uconn has an average defence (based on who they have played) and their offence is absolute garbage. I can’t be the only one questioning a line with a team who hung in there with ND through triple OT last week.
I think a lot of it is this is considered a big letdown spot for them, back on the road for a 2nd week in a row off a huge effort at ND. But you’re right, Pitt should take this one easily just looking at the numbers. I’d be surprised if UCONN doesn’t turn the ball over at least a couple times.
Snow is right. Call me crazy, but as I was typing out a response to this comment and doing some due diligence, besides the letdown factor, which totally could happen, Pitt should own this game.
I posted the write-up on this one above.
Wow, good lord what a let down on Pitt. Pitt has covered every game but one this year and UConn has only covered 1 game!! Brutal. They better show something second half.
I haven’t heard anyone talk about the NW/Michigan game. I got this one earlier in the week at NW (+11), curious to hear thoughts on this one. I saw that the line in now down to +8. Does anyone see value in NW here?
I grabbed it at +11 too. Chronically undervalued NW team (8-1 ATS), playing reasonably well on the road, one game back of Mich and Neb. They take care of the ball and have been running pretty well going up against a mediocre Mich run D. Denard will be back, but could be splitting reps with Gardner.
Saw a lot of value at DD, less so currently. I see this being a one score game.
This is one of the games I am looking at playing. If you can catch NW getting DD I think there is value, I just haven’t decided on my play or not yet.
NW is well coached, doesn’t turn it over, and gets the job done. Michigan on the other hand, is also well coached, although they are baddddd at passing. I almost hope Denard plays here. I think this one could be closer than 2 scores.
Northwestern should be ready for this game, I’m just worried about their defense in the big house. It is already a bit skeptical, and Michigan will be the best skilled team all around that they have faced. They do have experience against the dual threat QB though as they played Nebraska 2 weeks ago.
Will keep you posted on if/what I play here. I think its NW or nothing.
Saber-
Huge fan of the site, followed you guys over from the RX last year. Love reading the group’s analysis.
Noticed you had Georgia on your leans but didnt play it. Any reasons?
Keep up the great work!
Ducks,
Still adding games to my weekend list. This may be a bigger week for me. I like Georgia. They are playing for the SEC East this week, and should not take the Tigers lightly. How the hell does Auburn score against one of the Top 5 defenses in the nation? I think they get maybe 10, which gives UGA a good range. UGA should roll here.
I think they should cover, I just need to look into it a little more. Check back for updates.
I agree and am on them myself. Only thing that gives me pause is the Kentucky game, where they didn’t have a lot of incentive. The stakes are higher for them now but I still have concern about a less than A+ effort from them in a game they SHOULD win handily. I think you can say that about all of their remaining schedule too (Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech).
Thanks for the feedback-
Ducks — wanted to let you know I made UGA a play and have a more extensive write-up up top. If they are halfway into this game, they cover. If we get a half-assed performance like we did from FSU last night, they won’t. The good news is, UGA>FSU and AUB<VaTech I think, so our worst case is still solid.
On a side note which of the following picks do you guys feel is the “safest” this week? I am in a pool with some buddies, kind of like an eliminator pool, and for the first time this week I can’t seem to make a pick. I have narrowed it down to the following games:
LA Tech (-20)
Oregon (-28)
Minn (-3)
Penn St (+7.5)
NW (+9.5)
Georgia (-15.5)
Any thought/suggestions you guys have is appreciated.
MM
Thanks for the write ups & pix Saber. I followed you
over here from the other site. Off to a slow start
this week but I think Sat. will be a big day. I cant
believe how flat Pitt came out that 1st Half. Looked
like they had been on a 5 day drunk. Had they come out
ready to play like they played the 2nd H it would have
been a EZ blow out winner. Hind-site is 20/20. Good luck
on the rest of the plays this week. PS–I got the news
letter–TN-VOLS.
Thanks for the plays saber! You play any halftimes bro? I love me some halftime betting lol
No problem man. I do play some halftimes and typically post them on twitter. Also play some in games as well. If you don’t have twitter, I’d get it. Also, I’ll try to remember to post some halftimes here or in games too.
Awesome man! Can’t thank you enough for all your posts have taught me this year. This site rocks. BOL today bro
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