GoSooners College Football Picks for Week #11
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14 thoughts on “GoSooners College Football Picks for Week #11”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
GS, I liked the play before the passing of Royal, but you have to think it adds a charge to this team/atmosphere on Saturday. Even if most of the players don’t know much about DKR, you can believe they know how much he meant to Mack. I expect a big defensive effort against a limited ISU offense.
I had TTU against Texas last week but was impressed with what we saw out of Texas last week. A part of that was that I had TTU overvalued in my numbers, but this Longhorns team looked very dialed in. I can forgive the struggle against Kansas in a tough spot, this looks like a good match-up.
Curious to your thoughts about Okie Light and West Virginia. Something odd is happening with this WVU team right now and I think an improving OSU defense will give them a ton of issues. Geno’s confidence looks shaken and they will need to score 35+ here to stay close as the defense is a dumpster fire, I just don’t see it in Stillwater.
Jimmy, the Texas players were very familiar with Royal since he showed up frequently to their practices and games. I can assure you his death puts extra emphasis on Mack Brown winning this game since Royal was kind of a mentor to Brown. OU ran 85 plays on the ISU defense last week. And now the Clones have to face a better running team on the road this week. I think Texas performance in the Kansas game is keeping this line from going up. But it’s all about perception. Don’t forget that a young OSU team had the same problems beating Kansas on the road, only to come home the next week and beat ISU by 21. Texas always gets better this time of year. I expect them to look very good in these next two games and be 9-2 before they go to Manhattan in their last game to get thrashed..Ha!
For OSU/WV my line on the game is OSU -24. And my numbers pretty much match up with the line. WV also suffered the worst kind of loss last week when they had the game in the bag and allowed TCU that 95 yard pass. I’m tempted to take OSU. But the weather is going to be the great equalizer in Oklahoma this weekend with rain and 30-35 mph winds and a big temperature drop expected Saturday. WV had a ton of problems in Lubbock when Geno Smith had to deal with the winds for the first time. They’ll be just as bad or worse this week. I think this could be much more of a ground/short pass game than these teams normally run. Plus these coaching staffs know each others offenses well since Holgerson came from OSU and the Pokes are still pretty much running his Texas Tech offense. And WV’s offensive production has come way down in their last 3 Big 12 games. So the 80 total I believe is a little high for this game.
I agree with you here GS. I really think that OK can cover this. The book seems to be out on how to shut down the WVU team. Their defense is absolutely atrocious. My numbers have this one being a two score game, and if it is as bad as weather as you say, the ground game will be much more important. That also favors OK.
Also glad to see you on Tulane, you got a good number as well.
BOL with ALL your action this week as Always!
I myself think that Kansas is going to have a Real tuff time keeping up this week.
Love this site!!!
Curious to see what you have to say re: Nevada. I’m on the other side this week.
Snow, there are a lot of intangibles here that make me like Nevada. They are coming off two weeks rest and Fresno is on their 11th straight game, and now have to go play in the altitude of Reno.. Nevada is coming off their worst game of the season against an Air Force team that played a perfect game. It’s a big reason why I went against AF the next week vs Army. These teams very seldom throw in two perfect games in a row. And on the other side of the coin they rarely throw in the kind of game Nevada played last out two games in a row. With so much on the line I think Nevada plays big here and will be the spoiler. I also really like Nevada’s rushing attack vs Fresno’s rush D (173 ypg). I think Nevada can somewhat control the clock and keep this game very close if not get the outright win. Fresno is getting a lot of props for beating up on 3 pitiful teams in their last 3 games. While Nevada has played two of the better teams in the MWC the last two games. I’ll be surprised if this game isn’t close either way. I’ll happily take the points.
Great. Thanks for insight! Fingers crossed.
Hey GS, I would like your thoughts on the Boomer Sooners this week. I noticed that it’s supposed to be very windy in Norman tomorrow. How much do you think this hinders their passing game?
Thanks!
Xmas, it’s not just a little bit windy, it’s very windy in Oklahoma right now. And this is expected throughout the weekend. I think it will definitely affect the long pass. So as fast paced no huddle as these offenses are, I still lean to the under. What surprises me is the totals haven’t come down more for either the OU or OSU games. The problem with Baylor is they are giving up 211 ypg on the ground. So I think they get a good dose of RB Williams/Clay. Landry Jones has also been very sharp passing the ball the last couple games. Even against Notre Dame he was pretty good. Right now I lean OU -21.5. But I think if I put any money on this game I’ll go for the under or the Baylor team total under instead of the spread. OU has to go to WV next week. So if they get a big lead they might start pulling some players. That’s why i would rather just play the under in this one. Another thing about this total. Baylor hasn’t scored more than 21 on the road against decent defenses, and isn’t quite the offensive threat that they were with RG3. If OU holds them to say 17 points, it means OU would have to score 60+ for this total to go over. So that’s another reason I would be leaning to the under here. BOL
Doug, I’m also leaning Texas Tech. But most of Kansas games have also gone under the total. So the under 57 would be my second choice.
GS, I put a small play on that under at 59 when we were discussing it earlier in the week. Wish I had gone an entire unit now w/ the line change.
Pez, I think the under 57 is still good. Last week Kansas only had 342 yards against a terrible Baylor defense. And almost all of that damage was done on the ground. KU stil can’t pass the ball. They had only 96 yards with 2 int’s. This week they play a much better defense. I would be surprised if Kansas does much at all in this game. I can easily see a 42-10 type of score.