TSE Week 11 Guest Handicapper Challenge
Last week our Saturday Edge Guest Handicapper Challenge winner produced a perfect 5-0 mark, and for the second week in a row it was none other than MoMoney, who is now 10-0 in the past two weeks and 18-2 in the four weeks that we have been doing the weekly challenge. MoMoney has now won the weekly Guest Handicapper Challenge three times in the four weeks we have been doing the contest.
- Previous SabertStxVii Week 11 College Football Picks
- Next Betting on College Football – Week 11 Quick Hitters
22 thoughts on “TSE Week 11 Guest Handicapper Challenge”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
FSU -13.5
Noles are better than VT in every phase of the game. Hokies will play tough at home under the lights, but won’t be able to compete for 4 quarters with a much superior team.
Northwestern +11
Two weeks to prepare and despite a good game out of Gardner last week, think he might struggle a little bit here if Robinson doesn’t play. Lower scoring game than expected. Michigan 27-23 (Tie-Breaker)
Iowa -4
Purdue is a bad, bad football team. Iowa at home and still with a chance to go to a bowl game.
Penn State +7.5
Nebraska played a good game last week but should have lost so I think they may be a little overvalued here. Penn State will be a tough challenge.
Missouri – Tennessee O 60
Every Vol game has gone over this year, so I will continue to ride this explosive offense and terrible defense.
Central Florida -13.5
UCF is 3-1 ATS on the road this year, UTEP is 2-2 at home. UCF has a clear advantage on both sides of the ball, with quarterback play weighting this even more significantly towards UCF. UTEP’s starter is throwing nearly as many interceptions as TDs – not a good stat. UCF should pick up 5-6 ypc easily here as well, allowing Bortles plenty of opportunities to pad his 67% completion percentage against an already suspect UTEP secondary. UCF won their last meeting about a year ago by 17, and UCF is averaging a +20 point differential on the road this season. This one shouldn’t be any different. I’d take it up to -17.
45-24 UCF
UCLA -16 (I got it at -14.5)
UCLA should just about be able to do what they want this week vs. a WSU team apparently in disarray. This is as much a situational play as one based on the numbers, with Leach apparently having leadership and discipline issues. He suspended their top WR this week supposedly for walking out on practice, and has gone as far as to state he’ll be cleaning house for next year. I bet that’s done wonders for team morale… By the numbers we have a UCLA team better on both sides of the ball. These are two teams heading in opposite directions, and it’s very likely WSU has packed it in for the year. I’d say this one is playable up to -20.
Arkansas State -7
ULM has been puzzling the last couple of weeks. They were money the first half of the season, and have been faltering lately, getting absolutely dominated by ULL last week at home. These two are pretty even by the numbers, with ULM being more turnover prone. ArkST on a 4W streak and 3-4 ATS with ULM the exact opposite at 1-4 ATS. Betting on opposite trends, the turnover margin, and home field here. I don’t think this game is as much of a gimme as the first two, but definitely winnable as this number.
Oklahoma State -9 (I got it at -7.5)
When you compare WVU’s numbers for the season, compared to the last three games, you have to ask what the heck happened. Average ypg is down 150 on offense, and they’re giving up even more yards on defense at over 500 ypg. About half way through the season, WVU ran out of surprises and became a pretty easy team to gameplan. Lunt should be back at QB this week after going out against KState last week. I’d also expect Randle to be able to find more room to run against WVU than he managed last week, and with 7 100+ yard games he can really open things up if he gets going. Assuming OKSt stays healthy this week this could be another WVU rout.
Fresno State -3
This is another matchup I think is very similar to OKSt/WVU. Nevada put up crazy offensive numbers the first half of the season (500+ypg), but has since fallen off a bit on both sides of the ball. Fresno has been going the opposite direction. I’m not sure if Nevada just got a lot of credit for putting up a lot of offense early on or what, but this line should probably be closer to 2 TDs in my opinion. Nevada is coming off 2 losses to SDST and AF and horrible ATS run (5L streak, also 0-4 at home). Nevada also won the last three meetings, so a better Fresno team has the added revenge factor here. Fresno is a pretty remarkable 9-1 ATS this year. This one SHOULD be easy money as they keep that streak alive this week.
Nice HITT tonight on Ark. St. &
a nice start to the week. GL with
all your pix.
Thanks! Figured it was the right side, but thought it’d be a little closer honestly. Hoping for another good week.
BOL…
Oklahoma State -9 1/2
I got it at 7 1/2 and I just noticed it jumped 2 points in the last four hours. This game jumped off the page at me. I had K State last week and felt very fortunate. The Cowboys outgained K state by 100 yards and when QB Klein went down I thought that was all she wrote. It still came down to a 4th quater INT for me to win but I liked how OK state moved the football throughout the game, turnovers did them in and that won’t happen in Stillwater I believe.
Ok State 49-24 (Tiebreaker)
Washington +1
I live in the NW and I went to the game when they knocked off Stanford. The Huskies are a different animal at home and the UTES have not impressed me this year, especially on the road.
23-16
Virginia -1
Miami might have beaten Va Tech at home (I had them) but Tech QB Logan gift wrapped the game in my opinion. He threw the ball all over the field and gave the Hurricanes a short field many times. Virginia came off the bye week energized and their defense really shut down NC State and I like them in this spot. Miami besides the Goergia Tech game has been unimpressive on the road
28-17
Alabama – 13 1/2
Texas A & M ran all over the field when they played Miss St and Auburn but Florida and Alabama both shut “Johnny Rocket” down in the 2nd halves of their games. After the close call at LSU I think Saban will have his troops focused and ready for bear.
38-17
Louisville – 2 1/2
I have been impressed with Louisville QB Bridgewater and his abilty to find a way to win games. Syracruse has improved as the season has gone on but I just do not think they match up very well with the Cardinals.
28-20
will trent have more picks this week i like to follow him also
Tom, Trent tosses out a few picks on the site each week. I believe he has two floating around right now (Minny/IL U & WF/NCST U). He will also have a newsletter pick this week.
Rough week last week, looking to rebound. Here are the plays.
Game of the week: Ole Miss -2.5 31-21 Ole Miss
I’m a little biased towards Ole Miss, but they are in a great spot this week. They are coming off a tough loss to Georgia, but now they are coming home w/ a chance to clinch a bowl game, against a team that hasn’t been challenged since Oct. 13th. Ole Miss knows this is their best chance to get a bowl w/ games against LSU & Miss St left on the schedule. They will come out to play.
Oregon -28
Oregon is very good, obviously. I said the minute after the USC game ended that the line for this game would be high 20s even though it should be in the 30s because of a perceived weakness on defense. The truth is, USC has multiple NFL talent players and when you get into a shoot out against a team like that, you are going to give up a lot of yards & points. Nothing about Cal scares me and Oregon should roll easily. 50-17 Ducks
Minnesota -3
Minnesota is one win away from their first bowl in years. Illinois is one of the worst teams in the big 10. Minnesota is still learning how to play with their new QB & they’ve been bad on the road. But I think Minnesota’s motivational edge should be enough for them to win this game by at least 3. If Nelson figures things out early, Minnesota could blow out the Illini. 31-17 MN
Penn State +8.5
This is a team that continues to be undervalued, IMO. I really like what Bill O’Brien has done with this team. They come ready to play every week. I’m not sold on Nebraska either. They should win (although I think a ML play on Penn St has some value), but I don’t think they win by more than a TD.
Arizona 1st Half -17
Arizona had a huge letdown against UCLA after their big win over USC. There are only one win away from a bowl and get an awful Colorado team at home for their Homecoming game. This team should come out fired up and ready to play. Gave the game a look (-29), but think the first half number is better. Score: 24-3 (1st half only)
Good luck everyone!
Utah/Washington Under 47 (Washington 21 Utah 20)
San Jose State -20.5
Baylor/Oklahoma Under 76
Oregon State/Stanford Under 45
San Diego State -7.5
Gone 4-1 I believe 3 times. Coming for ya Mo! Best of luck to everyone this week.
1. Miami +1 at UVA – Virginia is coming off of an impressive performance at NC State. However, I just think Miami is the hungrier team here trying to lock up the Coastal division. What is Virginia playing for? They are 3-6 and they will probably not become bowl-eligible, having to face UNC and Va tech next. I have this game at -9 if played on a neutral field. I think this will be close but Miami pulls it off.
2. Penn State +8.5 at Nebraska – I don’t understand this line. I think Nebraska -6 at the most is sensible. When I first saw this at +7.5 I was excited and now I’m getting an extra point cushion? Yes, please. I think penn state’s defense will get to Martinez and force turnovers. Nebraska’s turnover margin is -9 and Penn State’s is +9. Penn state also has a solid red zone defense scoring %. I may even put a 1/2 unit on Penn state to win SU.
3. Alabama -13.5 vs. TAMU – Alabama is coming off an emotional and physical game against LSU. TAMU rolled through Mississippi State with ease. My first lean was initially TAMU, particularly if the line was around 16. But at under 2 tds, I think Bama has value here. I look to the LSU game as a pretty good indication of how this game will play out. LSU was up 24-12 until a last minute drive by TAMU to make it 24-19 (LSU still covered). I think Alabama’s offense is better than LSU’s and their defense is equal if not slightly better. Going to Alabama will be daunting for a freshman qb, and though his name is Johnny Football, I believe he gets exposed here and throws a few picks. The only way TAMU has a chance is if they force Bama into a shootout and I don’t see it. Bama rolls 38-17.
4. Utah -1 at Washington- I know Washington has been great at home, but so does Las Vegas, and that has been factored into the line. Utah has been playing good football as of late. Yes they have been beating up on the PAC-12 basement teams but still, it is momentum-building. I think Utah has a big advantage in coaching as well and always seems to turn it on in November.
5. Pittsburgh -3 at Connecticut – I think Pittsburgh is much better than Conn in all aspects. I will gladly take 3 points here. Line held low because this is a potential letdown spot after tough loss with Notre Dame, but I don’t really buy it.
IOWA -5 – Iowa sucks but hasn’t quit. Purdue sucks and has quit.
Texas -10.5 – Cyclones hurting without their heart and soul MLB Jake Knott. Steele Jantz has a poor day.
Alabama -13.5 – Alabama D > Freshman Superman QB on the Road with C+ nickname
Penn State +8.5 – Bill O’Brien outcoaches Oscar the Grouch
BYU -39.5 – Idaho fires Robb “the Voice” Akey during bye week two weeks ago. Vandals still reeling.
Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe MoMoney has won for the 3rd week in a row …… and 4th time in 5 weeks. The guy is KILLING IT!
Snow is either 4-1 or 5-0 Pez
I got Snow at 3-2 …. mainly because UCLA allowed WSU to backdoor them. That was a tough loss.
Yep. Terrible loss. It was late and I didn’t even bother watching the second half. Woke up pretty upset – that was one of my bigger bets of the day. I guess I discounted the look ahead to USC a bit too much. Bad beats all over.
Not sure
Great week of games, BOL
Nice work MoMoney! I got robbed on Ole Miss & Penn State. Both teams blew DD second half leads and were covering with less than a minute left in the game. Tough ones to lose.
We all had some tough losses this week. I also had Penn State (+9). Nebraska has got to be the luckiest team in the country right now. They get to play Michigan w/o Denard and B4 Gardner was ready, they get a phantom personal foul penalty on a pick six & a bogus pass interference penalty against Sparty and against Penn State they get the benefit of a very generous call on the Nittany Lion TD that clearly crossed the goal line before being knocked loose.
Huskers are very lucky Pez
My “key@” game every week has done well for me as I parlay it with many other plays. If that game is ever wrong I wipeout for the week.
Great job Mo Money,,,
Like purdue this week