Who to bet on Week # 6: Sides & Totals to consider
Who to bet on Week # 6: Sides & Totals to consider
Last week our week # 5 sides and totals to consider got a lot of good feedback so this week I will try and get all of our cappers involved. below are some of the games that we are considering betting on this week and a few reasons why we like a particular side or total.
Please feel free to join in the discussion and offer your feedback, we would definitely like to hear about how you are viewing a particular side or total.
Tags Boise StateFloridaMarshallMiamiMississippi StateNorth Carolina StateOhio StateOle MissPurdueRutgersSouth CarolinaSouthern MissTexasUL-LafayetteVanderbilt
25 thoughts on “Who to bet on Week # 6: Sides & Totals to consider”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
Anyone see the line movement on the UK game? Haha. Wish I had been able to grab State +14. Definitely think it could get ugly if UK can actually manage to not fall apart in the second half.
Also like the Rutgers game. Line is currently -7.5 at some books.
I’ve been on the Tulane games last two weeks (thanks again Sabert). You think this one is a go regardless of who Tulane starts at QB? I haven’t seen ULL play at all.
Snow – St +14 would have been amazing. That was clearly a mistake. Line is moving in out favor currently right now, as its down to 9.5 at some places. I am looking more into this game, as there are a few stats that don’t favor St. in my opinion, but I think the non-statistical capping favors St. here.
Like the Rutgers line a lot. Obviously have to look more into this one as well. I think things just line up in Rutgers favor, and enough of the players on this team were on the team last year so they know how dangerous UConn can be.
Finally with Tulane – I think it has a high likelihood to be a play this week, it just depends a lot to me as to who the QB is. If you have seen either of their past 2 games, they are so terrible that its almost sad after everything that’s gone on with that team. What will change depending on QB for me is size of the play. If its Griffin, I may not play it at all. If it’s not, it’s almost definitely a play just because it’s ULL’s homecoming, they’ve been playing well, etc.
Got my lean plays locked in for the week.
ULM -3.5
Maryland -5
Rutgers -7 (bought 0.5)
Miami +13
Clemson -10
Ole Miss +11
Unless something else really obvious presents itself I’m done. Probably going to hit the La Tech team total over still though. My place doesn’t have a number yet.
BOL this week guys. Thanks again.
West Virginia – Texas is a tough game to cap, no doubt. Texas didn’t look good against OSU. I’m a little surprised they won the game. BUT, imo OSU has a better OL than WV. When Maryland played WV I saw Geno Smith get pressured all day. I know the public only remembers the last game, but WV had just 480 total yards against Maryland, who obviously has the better defense than Baylor. We saw how bad Baylor’s defense was when they played ULM. They pretty much did what WV did, except on a little smaller scale. Unlike Baylor, Texas has some guys who can get to the QB. The problems they had with OSU is Gundy had a great offensive gameplan in which his rookie QB never held the ball for more than 2 seconds, and immediately delivered it to his skill players and let them make the plays.. Geno Smith and the WV offense doesn’t operate that way. He’s a pocket passer than depends heavily on pass protection. Whereas OSU can hurt you in many ways, including rushing the ball, and receivers coming out of the backfield. As good as WV’s offense is, I don’t think it’s as balanced as OSU’s offense. Believe it or not, I think this could be a lower scoring game than expected. Texas strength is running the ball, WV’s strength on defense is stopping the run (99 ypg). WV’s strength is passing the ball, Texas gives up about 200 ypg, which isn’t bad considering they’ve played some balanced offenses against Ole Miss and OSU. Both on the road. I guarantee you Geno Smith will be pressured much more in this game than he’s seen so far this season. And if they can’t stop Texas run, it will be a long day for them.
I love the UNDER 75 in this game. The public ought to be all over the OVER, but the line hasn’t budged since it came out.
Agreed. Texas D will get more stops than most people think. Number actually went up to 78 (at least that is as high as I saw it) before settling back down. Would love to see this one go into the 80’s like Baylor did.
GoSooners..I think Texas may be a bit over valued right now, especially on defense where they were just torched by a freshman last week. MO, they lost the battle in the trenches last week on both sides while giving up close to 300 yards on the ground. And their tackling? Especially in space, u miss against these kids from WV and its six. I also give the coaching edge to WV. If UT s bookends don t have huge games ( and they did not last week) and Geno has time to sling it, going to be a long day in Austin. Peace.
It could definitely be a long day in Austin, but I highly doubt that it’ll be the only team on the field capable of playing defense that is having it.
Funny how up until that Clemson game the West Virginia offense was barely better than average. They had scored 31 offensive points against a Maryland team that allowed 37, 21 against LSU at home, 43 v UCONN, 23 and an ass-kicking to a bad Syracuse team, 41 v Rutgers, 35 v Louisville, 17 offensive points v Cincy, 24 v Pitt & 16 offensive points v USF. That’s a team that averaged 28 ppg vs 8 average defensive teams and 21 points against a good defense.
Now they put up 70 more against a pathetic Baylor defense and they are once again the best offense since (insert name of an actual good offense here), yet everyone has forgotten how a few short weeks ago they were completely dominated on the LOS by an average Maryland defense and held to 24 offensive points.
Anyone who wants to wager on a defense that allowed 63 points (at home) on the road and whose offense is good, but nowhere near as great as the media has hyped it up to be, against a team that is second only to Alabama in the last 4-years in recruiting, GOOD LUCK. You’re probably going to need it.
Recruiting? I don t follow. UT has underachieved since Vince took a pay cut and turned pro. To be honest, I grade players on current performance, not past potential. I had UT last week, but aside from Ash and Shipley came away underwhelmed. Poor tackling, and speaking of losing the trenches, they could only run the ball late while ok state gashed them for close to 300. Plainly put, Okl. State pushed all those great recruits around on both sides of the LOS. Those all world book ends? Where were they? I have this thing capped at UT -3. I gladly take seven.
Bobbyjones2
“UT has underachieved since Vince took a pay cut and turned pro.”
You aren’t kidding. No team has done less w/ more than Texas the past several years.
But eventually these things even out. Whether this is the year they do for Texas remains to be seen.
I just like Texas’ chances in this spot. This games reminds me a lot of USC @ Stanford, except USC actually has a competent defense.
USC went into that game w/ a massive amount of hype based on three players: Matt Barkley (Geno Smith), Robert Woods (Stedman Bailey) & Marqise Lee (Tavon Austin). The game beforehand (Syracuse) showed that the OL couldn’t protect Barkley against an average pass rush. Stanford’s above average pass rush and run D knocked SC in the teeth and they never responded.
An average Maryland D showed that the WV OL can’t protect Geno and IF (or when) Texas’ DL knocks Geno around for a few quarters, it’s Syracuse 2011 all over again.
But all that is conjecture and we shall see what actually happens on Saturday. I know Holgerson has good knowledge of the Big 12 and maybe he puts together a game plan that was as good as Gundy’s.
In either case I wish you nothing but the BOL in all your games. I have not yet committed to this game, but Texas is definitely my lean.
When capping a game, I like to take the name of the front of the jerseys, and just look at the kids. Nowhere are lines more inflated because of brand names than college football.
Maybe UT makes me a believer saturday.
Keep up the good work, you guys are serious and I read all your opinions before I make my plays.
adding 3* mary/wake u50
to go along with already posted
3* miss +11
2* vandy +7
good luck
might have one or two more for the week
I WOULD LIKE TO GET SOME FEEDBACK ON FEW GAMES GAMES
IOWA ST/TCU
ILLINOIS/WISKY
BUFFALO/OHIO
NAVY/AIR FORCE
ARMY/BOSTON COLLEGE
I LIKE ALL 5 DOGS
THXS
GREAT SITE…
Bradley, unfortunately the only one of these five games I am looking at is Iowa St/TCU, where my first instinct is to also take the Cyclones and the points.
GoSooners and I briefly discussed the Illinois – Wisky game. The biggest advantage I see in this game for Illinois is the fact that Wisky’s offense has been struggling to score, so covering DD could be tough. On the other hand I have seen Illinois play 2 times this season and they are not a very good football team. I don’t think that I have enough guts to take them, but I actually do lean towards the Illini.
My only impression of Buffalo is based on the one time I saw them play a few weeks ago, and their QB (Zordach) was a disaster. Other than that I have no opinion on them.
Army and Navy are both struggling but are both getting DD against mediocre teams.
Trent, I think the Maryland under 50 is a decent play. Maryland’s defense is for real guys. They are giving up only 272 ypg and only 77 yards rushing. And those numbers include their game with WV. Trouble is Maryland can’t move the ball, averaging only 296 ypg on offense.
count me in for 2* kst/kan o52
The Texas WV game should be easy, all we gotta do is figure out who will have the ball Last, as that maybe the winner of this matchup. This may very well be another shootout with Both teams in the 40s-50s. ?
Damn, I hadn’t even thought about the total in the KSU/Kansas game. That may be the safer way to go. Kansas getting a little better on offense each week. They could put up a few points here. We know KSU will.
Guys,
Would love to hear your thoughts on the Southern Cal-Utah game tomorrow night.
Will, up until a few weeks ago I really liked Utah’s chances in this game, especially getting anywhere near the 14 points that was being offered on those GOY lines.
However, I was also making that preference based on the assumption that QB Jordan Wynn would be back and improve the Utah offense and that the defense was one of the top units in the PAC 12.
At this point we know both not to be true as Wynn has called it a career and the defense I saw in Tempe was anything but an upper PAC 12 unit. However, they were also coming off a big emotional win over BYU the week before and quite possibly not prepared for ASU’s “high octane” offense.
I believe the defense will play much better against USC tomorrow night, but I just can’t see their offense doing much of anything. QB Hays is not a very good passer and they lack speed at any of the skill positions to consistently hurt/threaten USC’s D.
For these reasons I went under 48. The 14 and the Utes at home looks very tempting, but I don’t know that even if their D can hold USC below 30 points, that Utah can score enough to cover.
Pez,
Great input!
I agree, Wittingham catching 2 TDs at home on a Thursday night with extra time is pretty tempting.
I think it will very interesting to see how the young Utah offensive line will be able to handle the pressure the Trojan D brings. If they can’t protect the QB, it will be a long night for them. And I agree, with the extra time I imagine the Utes will have come up with some ways to disguise coverages and make Barkley feel uncomfortable (or atleast not 100% in the zone).
Agree 100% with Pezgordo on Ohio St -3. Nebraska was getting killed by Ohio St in Lincoln last year till Miller went down. NU’s offense constantly makes mistakes and I would guess will have at least 2-3 turnovers. The mobile QB kills Pelini and his read and react defense (by the time they react the QB is gone). Only way I see NU in this is if OSU feels generous and gives NU more turnovers than they get. NU’s set of LB’s may be the worst they have had in a long time. NU does not respond well to adversity on the road and things tend to snowball on them. If the score is relatively close at half, I will be all over OSU in the 2nd half as well.
Plus, Ohio St. has a serious coaching advantage.
Are the Oklahoma Sooners as bad as i think? Is the Texas Tech defense as good as i think?
I think the Sooners are in for ALL the can handle in this matchup at Lubock. I myslef Love this home doggie now getting 6. Wonder if the line goes back to the opener of 7. Texas Tech did in fact catch wiseguy money naturally at the +7.
Doug, I’m a big Sooners fan, but I’ve got to admit I’m almost clueless on them this year. I think it’s a mix of internal problems and shuffling players around on the lines because of injuries that has everybody confused on how to play them. Whether they got their problems halfway ironed out in the last two weeks is anybody’s guess. But gun to my head i would probably take Tech and the points this week. But I’m laying off the spread. I do kind of like the under for that game if the TT defense is for real like they say.Plus I think Mike Stoops will have a good defensive gameplan for Tech.