Who to bet on Week # 5: Sides & Totals to consider
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
Sabert, I’m liking Ole Miss too and I know GS has already wagered them. My concern is their defense(of course). I hate taking bad D’s on the road. Texas put up 676 yards on them (in Oxford) and I consider Alabama’s offense to be better than the Longhorns. Plus Ole Miss is turning the ball over 3 times per game. As we saw in that Arkansas game, Alabama doesn’t need any shirt fields.
Pez,
I at first glanced liked Ole Miss, but as we’ve discussed a bit, they are grossly undermatched in size and talent. I think Bama can score as much as they want here. They will be blowing Ole Miss off the line of scrimmage on every single play. Ole Miss has a young defense that is super, super aggressive. I expect them to blitz a lot and probably get a bit out of position. Regardless, Bama will score. The question is, how much?
I know we have chatted about this; I think the over might be a decent play. This will be the best O that Bama has faced all year, and it is fast paced, no huddle. If Ole Miss can pick up some first downs, they should get a few scores on the board. I think they could be around 20ish, but that may be best case.
I think Ole Miss team total may be something interesting to look at as well.
Sabert, any update on Bo Wallace’s shoulder? I saw a video and he said he hurt it pretty bad on Saturday. I read where they expect him to practice today (Wednesday), but no one knows (or is saying) how bad the injury is.
Pez,
Bo will be a go. He has had some soreness but has also been participating at practice. The question becomes, if he gets crushed a few times, how long do they keep him in, knowing this game could already be a lost cause.
Very up in the air still on this one.
Love Penn St,
You can’t tell me they won’t be super motivated because of the Illini coach flying in and trying to recruit players in the off season after the Sandusky meltdown, plus they have looked good the last two weeks while the Illini has looked very bad, It is my play of the week. I like Minnesota but the line has gone up and the public is all betting the Gophers, never a winning formula. Lastly, Michigan State’s offense is terrible and unless their defense scores a couple of times I think the Buckeyes win.
Winman on the left coast
Thanks for the feedback Winston. A couple more reasons I am leaning towards Penn State is they are definitely the potential running dog in this game and getting points w/ the better defense is more often than not a good combo.
I still haven’t ruled out Minny. Iowa just doesn’t have the offense to pull away in these types of games.
I’m on the other side of the MSU – Ohio State game. MSU offense has definitely not shown much this year, but slow down Miller and Ohio State is pretty average on offense too. Sparty has the better D and home field. Should be a close one though.
I know everything says Georgia here. But I think this is a classic lookahead spot for them to SC next week. The Dawgs played about as perfect a game as your going to play last week against Vandy. But I want to see them do it two weeks in a row. This time against a more talented athletic team who is getting the same amount of points that Georgia gave Vandy. What the oddsmakers are saying is in two short weeks Tennessee has gone from being -3 favorites over Florida to +14 to Georgia. Is Georgia 17 points better than Florida? I don’t think they are. When we’re talking strictly about line value, i think Tennessee is the play. Of course line value is just a number. I think it’s just a matter of if you think Tennessee will have a different gameplan for georgia than they did Floirda. I think they will. Georgia hasn’t been quite as stingy against the run as Florida has. I think the Vols could have a bit more success there than people think. I also think Bray is capable of trading passes with Murray. All I’m looking for is a cover here, not a win.
GS,
Totally agree here. I was on UGA at first, and obviously up there that is my lean. I think they get up to a 3 score lead in the 2h, especially with their defense being finally fully put together.
There are a few reasons why I am starting to back off this play. UT is such an obvious backdoor cover. I can see UGA being up something like 30-14 with 5 minutes left and Tennessee still stretching the field and putting in a worthless TD. I think UGA’s defense will overwhelm UT too much and UGA comes away with the win at home here. I don’t think the look ahead is as much of a factor because UGA knows Tenn is a legit team.
How does Tenn win? Establish the run. If they can get the run together and consistently pick up 4 yards a clip, UGA will have to respect that, opening up Bray’s throwing lanes. If UT can’t get the run established nor the play action in that case, they are in for a longgggg night in Athens I think.
Pez –
First off, I love this sight and love what you guys do. It’s fun for me to read, and a great way to get some valuable information from some knowledgeable people. Keep up the good to all of you guys.
I just want to throw out a few comments on the Neb/Wisc UNDER. I am a diehard Cornhusker fan so do not ask me about the line, I’m biased but…I objectively see this game going OVER for a few reasons:
1. Wisconsin’s struggles on Offense are well documented, but the switch at quarterback could give them some life and someone for them to rally around. (See Joe Ganz replacing Same Keller in ’07)
2. Nebraska’s defensive struggles were also put on display at UCLA this year. Nebraska has a somewhat underrated secondary, and we aren’t bad at stopping the pass….however, we are AWFUL at defending the run. This will be the first time this year that we will even be in our base D after playing our first 4 games against spread opponents. Sean Fisher will see significant playing time this year as a result of that (which is a bad thing) and Alonzo Whaley will also see the field over David Santos/Zaire Anderson (now injured) meaning we just got slower in order to try and defend an much bigger, more physical Wisconsin team.
3. Nebraska will put up some points. This is as skillful as the Offense has been in 10+ years, and it looks as if Taylor Martinez is much more comfortable in the offense. Barring a debacle, I see the scores putting up 30+
4. Via vegasinsider.com America is currently all over the UNDER and the total is actually creeping UP. Line movements opposite public appeal smell funny.
Hope you guys find this somewhat insightful. BTW I’ll be cheering for the SKERS, but Wisc might not be a bad BET!
BOL to all of you guys this weekend. I’ll be following you guys!
Doc, first off thanks for the kind words about the site. We really appreciate it. Secondly, thanks for the fantastic comments and insight into the Wisky-Nebraska game. This is the type of information I am looking for and want to see more often on the site. Great stuff.
It has certainly given me some things to think about. It is still tough for me to “see” either of these teams hitting 30 points in this game. Not that it won’t happen, but from my perspective I see a very good Wisconsin D, whose strength is against the run, neutralizing a good Nebraska running game.
On the other hand I don’t think Wisky’s offensive troubles will be solved in a week and/or w/ the new QB. So an average Nebraska D should be able to at least slow them down.
But it sounds like you know your Cornhuskers and while 50.5 appears a little high to me, I will certainly proceed with caution concerning this total.
Thank you again for your insight. I most certainly did find it helpful.
Doc — no opinion on this game as I am not as familiar with you on either team, but really, really good and insightful comment. Please stick around; your input is valuable.
If you guys don’t mind, I’d like to post a few comments on some of these games.
First, the thing I like most about the Minnesota bet is the fact that Minnesota takes care of the ball well. They have never had more than one turnover per game this season. That is a huge factor going on the road against a team that is struggling a great deal and is turnover proned themselves.
Secondly, Wisconsin is not good, guys. Offensively, I watched this new QB last weekend and was not impressed with him at all. He does not have good arm strength and leaves a lot of passes up in the air too long. I think Nebraska will intercept this kid several times this Saturday. UTEP practically gave them 14 points last week on two defensive miscues that left receivers wide open — and when I say, “wide open,” I mean there was NO ONE around them. Wisky should have been beat last week on their on home field by UTEP. I don’t consider Lamaison a good QB by any stretch of the term, but he didn’t have much trouble passing the ball on this Wisky defense. I know Nebraska is primarily a running team, but they are better at passing the ball this season than they have been the last couple of seasons. I think they will open their running game up if they hit on a couple of passes and I think Wisky will give them the opportunity. I really think this game will be all Nebraska.
I disagree with you guys though on Penn State/Illinois. I am on Illinois and feel good about it. Illinois has played the way tougher schedule, and that includes a La Tech team that has done nothing but beat everyone they have played this season. I’m not ready to buy into Penn State getting it all together because they have beat a bad Navy and Temple team AT HOME. In fact, the only road game they have had was against Virginia and they lost that one. Penn State’s offense is nowhere close to what Illinois has seen in Arizona State and La Tech. And, all I see is everyone talking about Penn State’s motivation because of Illinois recruiting their players in the offseason. What about the fact that this is the first conference game and last season Illinois was dreadful in their conference games? All the talk in the offseason with this team has been about doing better in the conference games. Well, here is the first opportunity, coming against what I still believe is a very mediocre team at best, and Illinois plays it at home. I still think Illinois has a good defense, especially for Big Ten play where their defense will hardly be challenged. I like Illinois.
Good luck this week, men!
BS,
Great stuff as always. Absolutely with you here on Minny. This was another play I was looking at. This Iowa team has done zero to impress me all year while Minny has done tons of things. They are winning games, and even if they don’t win this one, I really feel like they keep it close.
Also, good point about PSU. Motivation plays a minimal factor in NCAA. Gotta remember these are 18-22 year old kids. Every kid wants to go out and win, play for their school and students, and possibly get drafted. There may be added motivation here or there, but in general, it isn’t as big a deal as we all sometimes make it. I;ve been saying it since middle of the season last year, La Tech is no joke, and any team that takes them lightly will get a rude wake up call.
Have not seen Wisky really play, but I’ve seen UTEP and they were abysmal. So if that says anything about Wisco, then its not a good sign. I’m off that game too.
Thanks and best of luck.
BS and Sabert, I completely disagree about Illinois. I’ve now seen them play on two occasions and this team is completely lost, especially on defense.
I have read several articles where the players were and are frustrated on defense because they have not been properly prepared.
True Penn State has nowhere near the offensive firepower of ASU or La Tech, but both those teams put up 50+ on this defense. Penn State won’t need to score nearly as many points.
I also believe that emotion is HUGE in college football. I’m not very good at identifying it and when it will or won’t play a major part of the game, but I believe it is the reason why lesser teams are sometimes able to beat more talented teams and why sometimes there are blowouts between teams of equal talent and experience.
Any read on the Washington-Stanford game?
As a Spartan I’m sure I’m a bit biased but MSU looks to be the bet this week. While we all know about MSU’s struggles on offense, but to me it’s simply the receivers dropping passes a half a dozen a game and extremely conservative play calling from Rousar and co. Maxwell is a bit tentative in the pocket, but this limits his turnovers as his natural inclination to is to check down to Bell or Sims. The offensive line is overrated (marginal talent especially with Fonoti injured) but they can still run on average defenses. State still has a good defense, with the only real weakness being their run defense as they aren’t getting much from their second starting tackle next to White. OSU doesn’t have a ton of offense outside of Miller running a creating outside of the pocket. MSU has a ton of speed on defense and have had success against a Dennard Robinson who is similar to Miller. OSU’s defense is nothing special. MSU will make enough plays to win 17-10 or so…
SpartanDawg, im curious about this Stanford-Washington game as well.
I wonder if Sarkisian with the extra time has planned a way to mitigate the aggressive D line play from Stanford. With screens and draws and maybe Price can get outside the pocket and buy some time with his feet because that O line is very thin and Stanford can wreak havoc on opposing QBs (ie Matt Barkley)
I also am curious to see how Nunes will be able to handle the hostile environment…he is an older QB but inexperienced on the road. I am also very interested to see just how hostile the crowd will be with the game being played at Century Link field at 6pm local time on a week night. If the Washington defense can load the box and limit (less than 200 yds rushing haha) Taylor, they can force Nunes to beat them with his arm.
I think this was all comes down to Keith Price vs Josh Nunes.
I am not the person to comment on this as I haven’t seen either play a full game yet, but what I will say is game is won in the trenches and Stanford has a very, very good D-Line and Wash I believe I saw that Wash only has one healthy OL that started the year, and its the C. Someone please correct me here if this is wrong, but even if its not, this still really favors Stanford I believe atleast on that side of the ball.
you are right..very depleted O line for UW
GS and I were discussing this game today. As a PAC 12 fan, at least for me, this is a very difficult game to cap because I believe I can identify the positives and negatives for each team.
First, Will and Sabert are both correct when discussing UW’s OL problems. It is pretty depleted at the moment and QB Price’s numbers have suffered accordingly.
I personally think that Stanford’s front seven, which is loaded with talent, will dominate Washington.
But the problem I have w/ Stanford is that they have played two pretty good D’s (SJSU & USC) and have scored 20 & 21 points. Do you really want to give a TD and wager on a team that may only score 20-24 points?
In addition this is QB Nunes’ first road start. He was not impressive against USC. The Cardinal will lean on their strong running game and UW will probably load the box accordingly.
I am hearing that Ole Miss QB Wallace is not playing. Brunetti is a one dimensional QB that has not shown the ability to throw with consistency. Ole Miss will struggle to make first downs and score. IMO, Bama will crush SEC opponents when given the chance because it keeps them high on the list of any recruits in the region. If Wallace is not playing, I will gladly eat this chaulk.
Wallace will be playing, for sure. If there is one team in the country I would say that I know, it is this one, for multiple reasons.
With that being said, everything you said could be true haha. Bama has all the pieces to completely obliterate Ole Miss, but I think Ole Miss has some talent and speed on O that could put up some scores on Bama (not saying that they will cover per se). On D, OM doesn’t stand a chance. They are super aggressive, so we’ll see what happens.
Something else that a lot of people are missing out on is the fact that Ole Miss now has Hugh Freeze. As much as I loved Nutt, and I personally know the players did, he was not a good coach. Freeze is a genius. Ole Miss has been working on quite a few trick plays to have up their sleeve to hopefully get somethign going here and catch that Bama defense off guard. Trust me, they will pull out all the stops here.
With that being said, take it for what its worth.
I will be at the game and will see this one in “3D”.
Savants,
Love the site, keep it up!
First off, Tennessee-Georgia: I agree with GS that is a total look ahead spot for the Dawgs with the South Carolina game looming next weekend. However if the rumors are true that Rambo and Ogletree play I feel like that will serve as a shot of adrenaline for the defense and pick them up and energize them in this spot. I also agree with Sabert on this one in regards to a backdoor cover by UT. Richt will call the dogs off late in the game with a substantial lead while Dooley with his family connections to UGA, will keep slinging away until the final whistle. Tough line.
On a different note; sure would love to hear yall’s thoughts on the Middle Tennessee-Ga Tech game. I know the Blue Raiders have had an extra week to prepare for the option but can their scout team actually prep them for the speed at which Tech will run it with?? I personally see the Jackets bouncing back from the OT loss and running away with this one (something like 52-17). Or is OT loss too emotionally draining to lay nearly 4 TD’s the following week?
Thanks guys!
Thanks for stopping by Will.
With regards to UGA, I think it is going to be a do not touch game for me. Too many moving parts, rivalries, and coaches decisions, with me being fond of neither coach.
I may actually have some thoughts for MTSU here. Ga Tech is off a really tough OT loss. They played absolutely terrible. Will they play that bad again? No. I know I always say this doesn’t happen in NCAA, and it typically does not, but Ga Tech has Clemson next week. I think their coach may be looking ahead a bit here. The option can get up by a few scores, and then they can plug in the backups to eat up the clock. Johnson is going to want to keep his guns as healthy as possible for the HUGE battle next week. I think this can be a factor. Also, MTSU, like you said, has 2 weeks to prepare for the option. They should be prepared, but that doesn’t mean they will execute it well.
Just some food for thought.
Will..That was a devastating loss last week for Ga Tech. The kind of games where you have a comfortable lead and then things fall apart in the second half, are really the worst kind of losses on the psyche of a team. This is actually a game I’m considering. MTST has a very capable QB. Plus MTST has had that all important extra week off that helps in practicing for the option. Although I doubt MTST has anybody in camp who is even remotely close to being able to duplicate GT’s option. But I find it hard to believe that Johnson can get his team fired up for this game. My only concern is just how good MTST really is. My feeling is with their lack of defense, they are one of the weaker of the Sunbelt teams. But the Sunbelt has upped their game in the last two years, as we’ve seen with ULM and WKU. No doubt though that this is a potentially good situational play with Clemson on board the next week for GT. So I’m still weighing my options on this game.
Thanks for the responses guys, very insightful!
MTSU is not very good. Them and FAU are good fades against teams that are looking for a win. Like has been stated here so far, is Ga Tech really going to care much about this team? They know they can beat them with one hand tied behind their backs. I am on the UNDER 63.5 simply because I don’t see a lot of motivation here for either team. It could just be a couple of teams going through the motions hum-drumming out a respectable score and let’s get to a conference game.
Hey guys,
Great work, love the site.
One game I haven’t seen much for comments on but I think is a huge play is Florida St. -17 vs. USF. USF hasn’t impressed at all (back to back losses to Rutgers and Ball St). Say what you want about the improvement of Rutgers and Ball St this year, those aren’t great losses. In a vacuum, FSU is at LEAST 27 points better than USF. Factoring in a road game and a potential letdown game after huge win against Clemson, I don’t think that gets the line down to -17 in my eyes.
I could go into all the advantages FSU has in this game, but the thing I love most about this play is that even if FSU comes out soft and is tied at halftime, their offensive is so explosive that they could easily cover with the blink of an eye. This game has the potential to get out of USF’s reach early. Final score prediction 45-13.
(Two side notes helping support FSU: Seniors on FSU lost to USF freshman year, potentially small revenge factor; FSU’s D was their strong suit coming into the season, Clemson needed to pull out every trick in the book & scored two 50+ yard TDs, USF’s O isn’t Clemson’s.)
I think one of the main reasons you do not see anyone on FSU or Clemson is because the situational plays work against both teams here in this week’s games. Both teams will be in a “letdown” mode after last week’s hype and game.
Riley, thanks for the thoughts on FSU/USF and I am glad you like the site.
As SoonerBS points out, it really doesn’t seem like a very good situational spot for FSU after having played that emotionally charged game against Clemson last week. Now that certainly doesn’t guarantee that FSU won’t just come out and destroy a lesser team like USF (who have a really bad QB I might add), but you just might want to keep the motivational angle in mind when deciding if you want to invest in this game.
From my personal perspective, I don’t really like to give DD on the road, so FSU isn’t even on my radar. USF on the other hand would be (I love good home dogs), but I don’t have much confidence in BJ Daniels. He’ll occasionally surprise you, but based on my experience with the guy, those moments are far and few between.
Thanks again for the thoughts and insight and keep them coming.
I think BJ Daniels is the key here. I believe he will try to be a superhero and end up actually causing more harm than good against that FSU defense. He was not heavily recruited by Florida St (although from Tallahassee!) so you know he is going to come out wanting to prove them wrong for over looking him. I wouldn’t be surprised if Daniels tried to force a couple throws resultingin USF turnovers and short fields for the FSU offense to capitalize on.
Bottom line: I would not feel comfortable laying the points with USF with a Jekyll and Hyde QB like BJ Daniels.
Sorry I meant *I would not feel comfortable taking the points with USF
Cal – ASU
I have watched Cal QB Maynard for two years and he makes the worst decisions in the clutch. Cal has some great talent but somehow they find ways to lose games. ASU on the otherhand is terrible when they travel, I loved them last week after the UTES-BYU game emotionally drained Utah. ASU is a PHYSICAL team this year and I think Maynard will gift them with at least two interceptions at key times during the game and ASU will win a close game.
Winman
Stanford – UW
WA offensive line is starting two sophmores and a freshman tonight because of injuries, the public is taking Stanford but the line has come down from 8 to 6 1/2, I love Stanford because they are are a physical, run first/ball control offense that I think is underated nationally because well, they are Stanford. Their back seven totally dominated USC on the line and center or no center for USC would have still won the game. The last two years they have won by like 100 points and I don’t see this one being close tonight. 34-10 Stanford, I was 9-1 last week so I am sure I am wrong here because I am due for a dive.
Winman
The game hasn’t been good to new QB’s so far making their first road starts this season. Stanford still has an excellent defense, but they are going to find the going much tougher after losing a 4 year starter at QB, who was the heart and soul of that team.. They also won 10 games ATS last year. So they are due for a fall against the numbers this year. It’s one reason why you really have to pick your spots with this team. I would much rather bet them as a dog than as faves. Especially on the road.
Good Call Go Sooners! I am 0-1 for the weekend…
Winman
Whats the read on Mizzou-UCF? Am I crazy to think that the UCF front 7 dominates the Mizzou o-line?
SpartanDawg…I’ve been looking at this game all week. By all rights Mizzou should win it. But then I start thinking, this is Mizzou. They are still a Big 12 North team that just happens to be in the SEC. They’ve only got 12 starters back this year. Less than that when you count the injuries on their line. It was very obvious to me last week against SC and even against a depleted Georgia defense, that they aren’t ready for the SEC. Their going to continue to get punished on the road. I’m betting that Kentucky gives South Carolina a better game this week than Mizzou did. To me it’s pretty much a tossup game at UCF. Being an early game helps Missouri’s cause. Not quite the rowdy drunken Florida crowd for that game. A must-win game for Mizzou or they might not make a bowl. Outside of maybe their home game with Kentucky, there are no guaranteed Missouri wins in the SEC.
Thanks for the input. I’m also curious what you think of the BYU game tonight. Is 25.5 too many points to ask a putrid offense to cover?
I was leaning towards the under 49.5. But I kind of liked that new kid Hill. I think he’s got much more potential and a better arm than Riley Nelson. If he plays it might give BYU a bit of a spark on offense. But I don’t see Hawaii doing much against that defense.