Who to bet on Week #11: Sides and Totals to consider
There is less than a month remaining in the college football regular season. This can be a hectic time of year, especially if you also handicap the NFL, NBA, and NCAAB on top of NCAA football. A lot of times bettors will try to overcompensate if they are in the red towards the end of the season. Hopefully none of you will have that problem this year, especially if you have been following TSE. Our handicappers posted a cumulative record of 26-13 (67%) last week.
23 thoughts on “Who to bet on Week #11: Sides and Totals to consider”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
Pez — Even though I don’t play many O/U, I checked out the USC/ASU one and I agree. I have this one ending up around 70 points. The one issue I have with this play is how bad ASU is in the RZ. USC actually has decent RZ defense as well.
This game should be a disaster, and neither teams are well coached (USC is absolutely terrible honestly according to my coaching matrix). Finally, in my correlations, these two teams playing each other really correlate with a ton of points.
Like the play.
Sabert I got on Ole Miss @ 2 1/2 for a normal play on Sun night. Heritage still has it at that. Should I hit for more??
For reference, I am going to probably end up playing it at 3.5-4 if I can get it at 2.5. If I can’t, I think it ends up being in the 2.5-3 range. Depends on how numbers run later in week with outside factors involved.
I know it is a lot of points to take on the road, but does anyone like Oregon -28? I just do not see this game being close the way Cal has been playing lately.
Seth – I love Oregon here. They will need to continue to blow teams out, and I can see Cal just getting dejected after getting down really early in the game. The first half line may even have more value than the game.
Oregon first half always seems to be a good bet.
I happened to be watching the Maryland game last week and considering they were down to a linebacking QB and lost their No 1 RB, Georgia St D was pathetic. They had one danger to defend, Diggs yet failed multiple times. If NC has any ligitimate passing game it will be enough but I’m not as expert in this field as yourselves.
Once again, great site and opinions. Thanks.
Any thoughts on Florida. I know its a huge line, but with their defence and coming off last weeks game…I see this being over by halftime.
My first look is actually on LA here, but I will analyze this one more later for sure. Before last week, La-Laf was running the “everyone go deep and I’m going to chuck it as far as I can” offense. I think gotta be careful and look past last week in this one.
ULL surprised me with that dominating performance over ULM last week, especially considering how poorly they played North Texas the week prior. ULM seems to be on a slide ride now, and I’m looking at Arkansas state tomorrow.
As far as Florida, 26 points is a lot for them to cover. They’ve covered that against Kentucky, which isn’t a big deal, and SC, an admittedly better showing. But I agree, my initial lean is ULL. Looking forward to see if you have anything else on this one.
I agree. I think more of the value is on U-LA-LA, but I’m not sure if I’ll pull the trigger.
GS, Utah may hold the ST’s edge, but not the defensive edge. As I pointed out last week, this UW defense is better than the generic NCAA stats suggest. They have played some very good offenses.
UW is allowing 28 ppg vs teams that avg 32.82 ppg, so they are holding teams below their offensive season avg by 4.82 ppg. Whereas Utah is allowing 24.75 ppg vs teams that only avg 28.65 ppg, so they are holding teams below their offensive season avg by 3.90 ppg. So the Huskies are nearly 1 point better on defensive points allowed. Huskies also have a much better RZ defense than Utah too (only Oregon & Stanford are better at preventing TDs).
At best (for Utah) these two defenses are more or less equal. UW’s overall SOS is a lot more difficult than Utah’s too.
Utes actually have the edge on offense, which is surprising considering how bad their offense is. But the UW offense has been struggling all season, especially on the OL.
That is why I really wanted to get this game at 48 or above on the total. Two good defenses against two struggling offenses is usually a good combo for an under.
Pez, the eyeball test from watching both of these teams the last several weeks tells me it’s going to be very close. The Utah team that played Oregon State 3 weeks ago looked much different to me than the one who struggled through the first 6 weeks of the season. If it hadn’t been for the early OSU touchdown, Utah might have beaten them in Covaillis. They held OSU to a season low 227 yards and outyardaged them by about 100 yards, but their 4 turnovers to OSU’s 0 was the difference in the game. I like both of these teams and coaches. But you have to be careful with Whittingham. His teams have a tendency to play better in the second part of the season. They started out 3-4 last year, and ended up 4-1. They at least appear to be following that same path this year. But because of UW’s tougher schedule and the way they play at home, I’m a little torn on this game. I would really like to play the under. But it’s already been bet down to 46 from the opening 50..
GS, back up to 47. I doubt it makes it to 48, but if it does I’ll pound it.
When I saw Utes play earlier in the season against Devils and Trojans they simply didn’t have the speed yet to compete in the conference. Subsequently ASU & USC had very little trouble moving the ball on them and beating them.
Utah was lucky to catch Oregon State in a good spot and Vaz’s second career start where he struggled.
No chance I’d even consider Utah in this spot. Utah is not a good road team (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS), they don’t have enough speed on either side of the ball to yet compete in the league against good teams (Cal & WSU are NOT good teams).
I’m not saying I am all over UW, they have problems of their own, but they also have a lot more talent and speed than Utah, so I will definitely be on them at home plus points to some extent.
2* Minn/Ill u47
Lines are getting tighter…go with what has worked
Nathan Scheelhaase is the Zach Maynard of the Midwest.
and there’s no keenan allen or a semblance of a running game…
Trent,
For what it’s worth, Jonathan Brown, Illinois’s best defender and starting MLB is out for this game. Still like the play but wanted to make sure you knew. I’m also on Minny -3 and this news makes me feel better about the play since they struggle to stop in run in general.
yes, Wes..i did know that but thanks anyway…to balance it out, minn’s leading wr is very doubtful and 2nd leading wr is “Q” so it was a wash to me
good luck
now they are listed as out