Jimmyshivers Week 9 ACC Football Picks
At this point in the ACC we have seen some separation of the ACC into 3 distinct classes. Florida St and Clemson are in the top tier by themselves, their talent level and production have made them the only ACC teams that can realistically claim national relevance. The next level of UNC, Duke (hi!), NC State, Virginia Tech, Maryland Miami Georgia Tech and Wake Forest are all in a muddle of teams who seem to alternate between awful and amazing every week. Virginia and Boston College are just bad football teams with no confidence right now.
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14 thoughts on “Jimmyshivers Week 9 ACC Football Picks”
Leave a Reply to Pezgordo Cancel reply
MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
gonna first-guess you guys on this game…
I’m not seeing clemson at all…overall defensive numbers are horrible, and consistently bad as well…one of the 3 worst in all
BCS conferences, along with Texas and Miami…
short week never a good spot for the road team, and the fact that they played on saturday makes it even tougher (lots of teams have the sat off before thurs nite games)
And there’s absolutely no line value with clemson…Tigers were -7 at BC (actually closed 6.5)…is Wake better than BC..?? Of course!! Then why would you lay 5 more pts, or basically a TD more, at Wake..?? you’re in no-man’s land at -12…you basically have to win by 2 TDs…that’s double the spread vs BC
I’m limiting my plays this year and mostly playing totals so I don’t have any action tomorrow nite so i’ll root for you guys but I just don’t see the edge…is Clemson better than Wake? of course…does that mean they roll out of bed and win by 2 TDs…?? I think that’s a tough position to be in
good luck
Trent, no worries, we won’t always agree but I appreciate the well thought out sentiments..
Both teams played Saturday so not sure how the short week adversely affects either. Their’s some natural devaluation with the short week for the road team, but I feel the talent and depth gaps are more than sufficient to make up the difference.
That Clemson-BC line was a product of 1) people not knowing just how bad BC was and 2) a great spot for BC, with them coming off a bye and Clemson off the FSU loss which was supposed to break their will. Watching that game it was clear that even with BC’s ability to move the football (even with Camparano this week, something Wake doesn’t have) they just don’t have the horses to keep up.
Wake being a better football team than BC is also another question for another day. Definitely a better coaching staff for Wake, but I’m not all that convinced that if you switched the schedules around BC and Wake don’t have records that are all different.
This is a Clemson team with only 1 loss that still has dreams of a BCS game berth this year, via Charlotte or at large. It’s the kind of game with a national audience that teams like this try to come out and make a statment. Naturally that doesn’t mean they will roll out of bed and cover, but I like the match-ups enough to consider it a +EV possibility.
It’s a little scary to lay DD on the road, especially against Jim Grobe and his band of misfits who’ve kept every game inside this number all season (except in Tallahassee). I just don’t Wake’s defense has been tested very often and when they have been they’ve failed those tests.
Like you said, it’s not the best situational, but I feel like that’s been factored into the line here. I’ve been wrong often this season, but I have to stick with my guns. BOL this weekend Trent, you’ve been one of my favorite posters and I value your input.
just a few things and then i wish you good luck for tmrw…
1. BC is probably the worst team in the NCAA…i feel bad because being from the northeast it was always nice to see them succeed, and i’ve met coach spaz and former AD Defelipo and they are really good people, and the program had such success for so long (i think it was 7 straight bowl wins)…but they are horrible and getting even worse as attrition is taking a toll…they have honorable-mention high school kids playing for them…that’s unheard of at this level
2. even if you look at the FSU lines for both teams as a “base-line” this game should be less than 10…sometimes value doesn’t matter…i stand firm that tenn +21 last week was a line with value (i ended up not playing it thankfully)…but by several different measures that line should have been around 17…so you can cover a line that doesn’t have value, and not cover a line that does…but those are 2 separate measures of line value and clemson doesn’t pass either so i don’t see this as a “value play”
3. there is a big difference between home and away on a short week…i’ve spoken to coaches and they hate night games on the road…kids don’t know what to do with themselves all day…home teams can keep busy with themselves…at least on a saturday it’s their usual week schedule, and there’s also more time to rest up and get well phsically…getting on that plane or bus on a wednesday after a game saturday is much worse than getting on a friday…not a reason for you to play or not play, but certainly not an advantage…is it any wonder that home teams on thursday night do so well..?? (in nfl too this year)…football players are creatures of habit…i remember jimmy johnson saying when he was coach of the dolphins that he wished every game was 1pm on sunday…playing a road game on a thurs nite after playing saturday is a difficult spot to play in…it’s a lot more difficult for the road team than the home team…and the numbers in the past have shown that as well
I enjoyed reading your insightful situational info, Trent. Thanks for sharing!
Nick-
There’s a good group on this site that has a lot to offer…glad you’re enjoying
Good hit w/ Clempzin last night…glad you got it
(that’s how they say it down there…)
We say it Clempsun down here in Raleigh, was glad to see the Tiggers play well last night. We get to put our Wake-BC theory to the test next week as the Eagles visit Wake. Expect a BC win this weekend makes that line 4ish, but if BC loses it could very well be 7 or so (unless Spaz gets fired this week). Can’t see it more than 7, but if it is I’m all over BC. Good luck this weekend Trent
Good number on NCST-UNC total. After we talked I didn’t get to it in time before they took it off the board because of the weather. The next number I saw was 54, which crossed key # 55 keeping me from playing it.
I’m with you and GS w/ TTech (just didn’t post it), but could only get +7. Should be a close game in any case (or K-State continues to roll. LOL!).
Nice Clemson selection by you and Sabert. BOL this weekend.
Grabbed that total as soon as I put 2+2 together and realized that Hurricane Sandy might impact the game. Looks like that’s lessened somewhat but still feel like it’s the right side.
Really like that Texas Tech play, K State a really good side but this Texas Tech team has put up great numbers against a really tough schedule (Teamrankings.com has their SOS top 5 nationally). Should be a fantastic game.
BOL Pez, Big weekednd coming
BOL this week Jimmy. By the way I got a little bit of the under for the KSU/TT game. KSU plays a style of football that normally isn’t that condusive to high scores. Especially against better defenses of the Big 12 (example ISU and OU this season). They actually scored just 17 on OU when you take away their defensive fumble recovery for a TD. WV’s defense was just really really bad last week. I don’t see the same type of game at all this week with the Cats going up against a stronger D. On the other side, the history of TT on the road says their scoring goes way down, with the exception of the game last week with TCU. Played in-state. So I expect a game played somewhere in the high 20’s.
Good stuff on that under GS, expect both defenses to look to bring a big effort here, and the total is pretty high for what KSU has traditionally done. Good luck tomorrow my friend
Great job jimmy. Looks like I got lucky on that NCST-UNC line movement. Let’s kill them again next week.