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Who to bet on Week # 9: Sides & Totals to consider

Who to bet on - Denard Robinson
Denard Robinson
Who to bet on - Denard Robinson

It was another winning week for TSE cappers as we went 19-15 on posted plays and 2-0 on our newsletter exclusive picks.

Below are some of the games that we are considering betting on this week and a few reasons why we like a particular side or total. Please feel free to join in the discussion and offer your feedback, we would definitely like to hear about how you are viewing a particular side or total.

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28 thoughts on “Who to bet on Week # 9: Sides & Totals to consider”

  1. doug says:

    The Sooners have never beaten the Irish. Sooners may have their own problems with a mobile QB. ND will get some points here. How many? 20…..? I like the +10.5 more than a little.

  2. Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

    GS, was looking to go UNDER in the KY-Missouri game for many of the reasons you state. Both teams really struggle to score. Mizzou QB Berkstresser has really struggled in the past 2 games (albeit against Alabama and Vandy’s D).

  3. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Pez, I tend to agree on the UNDER since UK’s QB situation is also a little dicey.

  4. Brett says:

    ATM does not play Okla. Okla plays ND this week.

  5. Trentmoney says:

    I don’t understand that purdue/minny line…i really don’t…i’m not touching it as i haven’t seen much of either but it makes no sense…i seriously looked twice on sunday night when i saw that line to make sure i didn’t misread it

  6. Trentmoney says:

    just took UGA +7
    on a neutral field i’ll take my chances that they don’t lose by more than a TD
    the adjustment to this line from uga losing to scar and uf beating scar has gone a little too far imo

  7. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    I’m also looking at Michigan State at +7. I really don’t see any difference on paper between these two teams. Wisky is also long overdue to slip up ATS after covering the last 4. Also when Nebraska played Wisky, Burkhead rushed for nearly 5 ypc on them. I’m thinking Bell can do the same thing and keep the rushing battle pretty close. I think it’s a good play Pez.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      A quick look at my numbers had this one just about even (Wisky +1 point better). Sparty has lost 3 B1G games by a total of 6 points. Wisky has won 3 in a row against Ill, Purdue and Minny …. that’s not saying much. I’ll take the +7.

  8. mark says:

    Hey whats up pez and saber!! hope all is with you guys and juss wanna tell ya how helpful you guys have been! im looking for 3 LOCKS and i know there is no such thing as a lock but 3 games that that really strong..i was looking at ole miss, michigan, and arizona OR ole miss, michigan, michigan st? which one sounds better? or if you guys have any other games you like better juss let me know! thanks guys

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Hey Mark, thanks for the comment. I like every team/game you have listed. I know Saber loves Ole Miss again this week. I’ve already bet AZ +7, but just from a defensive standpoint, they have the worst D of the teams you listed, so I’d slightly lean Sparty +6/+7.

  9. doug says:

    I seemed to have noticed this year that we hardly ever have Anyone on these tuesday and thursday night games. Is it just me, or do all of you guys pass these plays?

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      Doug — i typically do actually play them and have a write-up up here. I believe I am 3-1 or something with Mid-Week plays. I laid off last night for a few reasons, but Jimmy and I are both on Clemson this Thursday and have a write-up in our page.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Doug, I tweeted Sabert last night that I was going over 62, but only for a very small amount (just enough to make it interesting to watch). I didn’t write it up because I had little confidence in the play despite my numbers suggesting it goes over. Plus, you know how I hate overs. LOL!

  10. wes says:

    Guys I love MSU +6 over Wisky this week. The badgers are a better team now than earlier in the year, however, they really benefited from playing some easy competition as of late and more importantly bad defenses. MSU is desperate for a win and can easily shut down the Badger rushing attack. Taking the points!

  11. Trentmoney says:

    I’m on 3* ken/mizz u49

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Trent, I jumped on this one yesterday, but only got 48.5. Two struggling offenses w/ QB issues. I’m thinking of using this one as our weekly SEC video.

      • Trentmoney says:

        you should…i was gonna write it up as it’s my top play but since everyone seems to be on it i can do another…i’m sure our analysis is pretty similar on this game…my book just posted it as i was hoping since Monday that it wouldn’t drop below 48

  12. Trentmoney says:

    2* Lou/Cin o52

    thats all for the week…
    good luck everybody

  13. doug says:

    Pez yes i know about those Overs and you, but then again GoSooners and his high wire act and you and those Unders….lol
    Clemson seems to be the choice here for the thursdat aventure!! I see that number still falling from that opener of 14 now 11 and 11.5, wonder who this is that moved it that far? Coupled with wiseguy money and a home dog, it might go further??

  14. Xmas32 says:

    Hey gents, always loving the site. Thoughts on UNM +13.5 at home against Fresno? New Mexico is really one dimensional, but a devastating rushing attack at home in the elevation getting DD is a mighty tasty proposition. Fresno has played some tough teams, but they seem to struggle on the road.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Xmas32, New Mexico and those points looks intriguing. They are definitely an improved team under Bob Davies and they’ve played everyone in the MWC tough including Boise and Air Force.

      There are definitely still on my list. I like home doggies.

  15. MoMoney says:

    Pez,
    I would love your thoughts on which of these games you like best: IND (+1.5) @ ILL, UMASS @ VANDY (-31) or WKen (-7) @ FIU.

    ILL is the worst team in the big 10 and IND has shown spots of decent play. I like IND, but for some reason I am nervous about this game.

    UMASS and Vandy is a no brainier win for Vandy I understand, laying this many points always makes me nervous. I typically don’t play games with spreads this large, but with how bad UMass is it seems to be sucking me in.

    FIU having only 1 win on the year and giving up 37 ppg facing a pretty decent WK team that is in need of a win to stay in the Sun Belt hunt looks pretty good. FIU seems to have the athletes that could produce a Sun Belt win in any game.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      MoMoney,

      Tough choice between Indiana +2 and Vandy minus all those points. WKU giving 7 on the road holds no interest for me personally, especially as you say, FIU has the athletes to compete. I really don’t know what happened to FIU this year, they had nearly their entire defense returning from last year’s SBC Championship team. I guess TY Hilton and QB Carroll were bigger losses than projected on the offensive side.

      UMASS most likely doesn’t score this Saturday, so can Vandy’s offense score 35-40+? I think they probably can. With some winnable SEC games coming up, they need this win if they are to become bowl eligible this year, so got to think they roll in this game. Huge step down in competition.

      I like Indiana +2, but I am always reluctant to take a bad defense on the road. It may not matter in this case because Illinois is just so bad.

  16. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    I kind of like Indiana, but i don’t have a great feeling about that game. Many teams struggle the next week after facing an option offense. Indiana played Navy last week. And now they have to get back to the conventional defense mode. From what I’ve heard, this isn’t always easy to do. Just look at last season the week after the ACC teams had to play option team GT. Almost none of them covered. And many of them lost the next week.

    As for Vandy, I like them this week. Sometimes it’s good to go back and look at history when it comes to some games. Vandy has a history of beating up on teams like this and covering the spread. And those Vandy teams were probably worse on offense than this team.

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