Jacksonville +7 @ Atlanta: In this battle of two mediocre to bad teams, I think Jacksonville has a major advantage with its pass rush.  I’ve seen Matt Ryan fold under pressure way too many times this year to believe that they can handle being TD favorites against a team that excels at rushing the quarterback.  The Jaguars sack the quarterback on 8.67% of attempts, and that puts them at 4^th in the NFL.  Jacksonville has one of the league’s worst run defenses, but Atlanta has no ability to exploit that weakness.  Atlanta ranks 30^th in rush attempts at 21.90 per game, and they only average 3.7 yards per rush.  I think Atlanta is a 1 dimensional offense that can run into huge problems with its porous offensive line.  You saw it happen all night on Thanksgiving, when the Saints defensive line put on a clinic, and the Falcons coaching staff did absolutely nothing to adjust to the heat Matt Ryan was facing all night.

Gardner Minshew has been all over the map this season, but he has shown that he can produce against bad defenses:

Atlanta ranks 25^th in passer rating defense at 99.50 and 26^th in yards / attempt allowed at 7.4.  I’ve done some of my best work against bad defenses as heavy favorites, and I think this is no different.