Kansas City +3 @ New England:  It’s always dangerous to fade the Patriots at Gillette stadium but I think this is 1 of only 2 teams in the NFL that doesn’t seem afraid to play there.  The Chiefs have had great success offensively in New England, and I will continue to play them as an underdog in these situations.  Here is how the offense produced the last three meetings:

In Kansas City, I see a team that is getting healthier each week as they’ve returned key players on the offensive and defensive lines.  Mahomes is getting better protection and they are running the ball more effectively.  They remain defensively challenged against the run, as they rank near the bottom of the league in yards per rush and total yardage, but the Patriots haven’t had any success running the ball this year.  In the AFC Championship, the Patriots offensive line devastated the Chiefs run defense and mixed in passes to Edelman and Gronkowski to take over the game.  I just don’t see the same team this year, with a beatup offensive line, and no play makers on the outside to compliment Edelman.  While the Chiefs have given up a ton of yardage as usual, they still have an effective pass rush, and they force turnovers at a high rate.  This is generally the type of opportunistic defense that gets paired with a high flying passing game.  If Kansas City’s offense is hitting at all cylinders, the most relevant statistics to watch are these:

When you’re scoring in the mid 30’s it’s hard for the opposing team to stay committed to the run.

The Patriots strength is obviously on defense.  I expect Belichick will make adjustments to what worked for the Chiefs in last year’s title game.  I definitely think the Patriots have a top 3 defense, but I’m beginning to think their dominance in the first half of the year was primarily due to their weak schedule.  I think they’ve faced 5 legitimate quarterbacks this season.

They shut down 3 of the 5, but in two of those games the weather was a major factor so I’m not sure they’d have the same result in ideal conditions (weather appears fine for Sunday).  I would not be surprised to see Mahomes have a big day against this defense.  If that happens, I don’t think the Patriots offense is strong enough to win and cover.