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2019 Pac-12 North Season Win Projections

Yesterday I posted my season win total projections for each Pac-12 South team. Here are my Pac-12 North season win total projections for each team. All conference point spreads are based on my Pac-12 Power Ratings. I used the available current point spreads at 5Dimes for most of the non-conference games.

If 5Dimes did not have week #1 or #2 point spread available, or they didn’t have a GOY line posted, I estimated the point spread based upon comparative lines.

For example, using comparative point spreads of common opponents, I estimated Oregon -22.5 at home to Nevada as follows:

Purdue is currently -9 at Nevada on August 30th … -12 on a neutral. Nebraska is -2.5 at Purdue on November 2nd … -5.5 on a neutral. Nebraska is currently -9.5 at Colorado on September 2nd … -12.5 on a neutral. So Purdue should be -7 on a neutral vs Colorado. Oregon is -15.5 at home vs Colorado … Oregon should be -22.5 at home vs Nevada.

I also used Sagarin for estimated FCS point spreads. Typically I’d just put 100% win probability, but I know UC-Davis and Eastern Washington are solid FCS schools, so I wanted to make the win probability as accurate as possible.

The first number to the right is the point spread and the number in parenthesis is the estimated win percentage.

CALIFORNIA

UC-Davis -14 (85%)
@ Washington +9.5 (25%)
North Texas -10 (77%)
@ Ole Miss +1 (49%)
ASU -1.5 (52.5%)
@ Oregon +8.5 (25.5%)
Oregon State -13.5 (83.5%)
@ Utah +9 (25%)
Washington State pk (50%)
USC +1 (49%)
@Stanford +7.5 (27%)
@UCLA +4 (38%)

5.87

Current 5Dimes price: 5.5 (-130 O/+110 U)

Based on current market prices, I have the Golden Bears a little overrated. I really like their defense, and though their offense is still going to be terrible – they have absolutely ZERO KNOWN PLAYMAKERS – it could be more efficient with better QB play.

With that being said, Cal has 5 Pac-12 road games this year, and I have them as pretty solid dogs in all 5. I also have them as short dogs at Ole Miss and short favorites at home vs ASU, Washington State and USC.

OREGON

vs Auburn +3 (43%)
Nevada -22.5 (100%) 
Montana -29 (100%)
@ Stanford +1 (49%)
Cal -8.5 (74.5%)
Colorado -15.5 (88%)
@ Washington +4 (38%)
Washington State -5.5 (65%)
@ USC +1 (49%)
Arizona -8.5 (74.5%)
@ ASU -1 (51%)
Oregon State -19 (97%)

8.29

Current 5Dimes price: 8.5 (-150 O/+130 U)

OREGON STATE

Oklahoma State +15.5 (12%)
@ Hawaii +5.5 (35%) 
Cal Poly -14 (85%)
Stanford +11 (20%)
@ UCLA +14.5 (13.5%)
Utah +13.5 (16.5%)
@ Cal +13.5 (16.5%)
@ Arizona +13.5 (16.5%)
Washington +14 (15%)
ASU +9 (25%)
@ Washington State +14.5 (14%)
@ Oregon +19 (3%)

2.72

Current 5Dimes price: 2.5 (-140 O/+120 U)

STANFORD

Northwestern -6.5 (67%)
@ USC +3 (43%)
@ UCF +3 (43%)
Oregon -1 (51%)
@ Oregon State -11 (80%)
Washington pk (50%)
UCLA -5.5 (65%)
Arizona -6.5 (77%)
@ Colorado -7 (70%)
@ Washington State +2.5 (46%)
Cal -7.5 (73%)
Notre Dame +5.5 (35%)

7

Current 5Dimes price: 6.5 (-140 O/+120 U)

Similar to Cal, based upon current market prices, I am apparently bullish on Stanford. I have them favored in 7 games, and even if we make them short home dogs to both Oregon & Washington, I still have them favored in 6 games and underdogs of less than a TD in the other six games.

They have 5 Pac-12 home games and two of their four Pac-12 road games are against the two weakest teams from each division (Oregon State & Colorado).

WASHINGTON

Eastern Washington -20 (100%)
Cal -9.5 (75%)
Hawaii -20.5 (100%)
@ BYU -6 (66%)
USC -6 (66%)
@ Stanford pk (50%)
@ Arizona -3.5 (60%)
Oregon -4 (62%)
Utah -3.5 (60%)
@ Oregon State -14 (85%)
@ Colorado -10 (77%)
Washington State -6.5 (67%)

8.68

Current 5Dimes price: 9.5 (-120 O/+100 U)

I have UDub favored in 11 of 12 games (pick at Stanford being the lone non-favorite). They have five Pac-12 home games where they are virtually unbeatable — Washington is one of only four Power Five programs with an undefeated record at home in the past two seasons and they are 19-1 over the last three seasons.

Despite my number (8.68) showing a pretty solid edge over the current market number (9.5), with 4 of their 5 toughest games being in Seattle, I’m not too anxious to bet this one at the moment.

WASHINGTON STATE

New Mexico State -32 (100%)
Northern Colorado N/A (100%)
@ Houston -7 (70%)
UCLA -5 (64%)
@ Utah +6 (34%)
@ ASU +1.5 (57.5%)
Colorado -12.5 (82.5%)
@ Oregon +5.5 (35%)
@ Cal pk (50%)
Stanford -2.5 (54%)
Oregon State -14.5 (86%)
@ Washington +6.5 (33%)

7.66

Current 5Dimes price: 8 (-115 O/-105 U)

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