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2019 Pac-12 South Season Win Projections

Here are my Pac-12 South season win total projections for each team. All conference point spreads are based on my Pac-12 Power Ratings. I used the available current point spreads at 5Dimes for most of the non-conference games.

If 5Dimes did not have week #1 or #2 point spread available, or they didn’t have a GOY line posted, I estimated the point spread based upon comparative lines.

For example, using comparative point spreads of common opponents, I estimated Arizona -4 at home to Texas Tech as follows:

Oklahoma is currently -19 in Norman vs TTU on September 28th … -16 on a neutral. OU is -11 at UCLA on September 14th … -14 on a neutral. So UCLA would be a 2 point favorite over Texas Tech on a neutral field.

My numbers have Arizona -2 at home vs UCLA … UCLA -1 on a neutral field. Therefore, Arizona would be -1 vs TTU on a neutral field and -4 in Tuscum.

I used Sagarin for games against FCS teams.

The first number to the right is the point spread and the number in parenthesis is the estimated win percentage.

ARIZONA

@ Hawaii -11 (80%)
NAU -27 (100%)
Texas Tech -4 (62%)
UCLA -2 (53%)
@ Colorado -3.5 (60%)
Washington +3.5 (40%)
@ USC +6.5 (32%)
@ Stanford +6.5 (23%)
Oregon State -13.5 (83.5%)
@ Oregon +8.5 (25.5%)
Utah +3 (42.5%)
@ASU +4.5 (37%)

6.43 wins

Current 5Dimes price: 6,5 (+100 O/-120 U)

ASU

Kent State -25.5 (100%)
Sacramento State -41 (100%)
@ Michigan State +9.5 (25%)
Colorado -11 (80%)
@ Cal +1.5 (47.5%)
Washington State -1.5 (52.5%)
@ Utah +7.5 (27%)
@ UCLA +2.5 (46%)
USC -1 (51%)
@ Oregon State -9 (75%)
Oregon +1 (49%)
Arizona -4.5 (63%)

7.18

Current 5Dimes price: 7 (+140 O/-160 U)

COLORADO

vs Colorado State -11 (80%)
Nebraska +9.5 (25%)
Air Force -6 (66%)
@ ASU +11 (20%)
Arizona +3.5 (40%)
@ Oregon +15.5 (12%)
@ Washington State +12.5 (17.5%)
USC +7 (30%)
@ UCLA +10.5 (21%)
Stanford +7 (30%)
Washington +10 (23%)
Utah +16.5 (11%)

3.76

Current 5Dimes price: 4 (-135 O/+115 U)

I have the Buffs favored in only 2 games this year, and a conference dog of a TD or more in 8 of 9 games. So they will need a few upsets just to get to 4 games. They also play the 4 best teams from the Pac-12 North.

UCLA

@ Cincinnati +3 (42%)
SDSU -10 (77%)
Oklahoma +11 (20%)
@ Washington State +5 (36%)
@ Arizona +2 (47%)
Oregon State -14.5 (86.5%)
@ Stanford +5.5 (35%)
ASU -2.5 (54%)
Colorado -10.5 (79%)
@ Utah +8 (26%)
@ USC +5.5 (35%)
Cal -4 (62%)

6.0

Current 5Dimes price: 6 (-105 O/-115 U)

I have the Bruins favored in 5 and more or less a coin flip at Cincinnati and Arizona. They’re dogs of less than a TD at Wazzu, at Stanford and at USC. Home vs OU and away to Utah appear to be the only two probably losses on the schedule.

USC

Fresno State -13.5 (83.5%)
Stanford -3 (57%)
@ BYU -3.5 (60%)
Utah -1 (51%)
@ Washington +6 (34%)
@ Notre Dame +10 (23%)
Arizona -6.5 (62%)
@ Colorado -7 (70%)
Oregon -1 (51%)
@ ASU +1 (49%)
@ Cal -1 (51%)
UCLA -5.5 (65%)

6.66

Current 5Dimes price: 7 (-125 O/+105 U)

I have USC favored in 9 games, but 4 of those games are literally coin flips and they’re also short favorites of 3.5 or less in 2 other games … so if they go 4-2 vs Fresno (W), UW (L), ND (L), AZ (W), CU (W) and UCLA (W), they’d also have to go 4-2 (66%) in those other 6 games where their estimated win percentage is less than 60% in 5 of those games in order to get to 8 wins.

UTAH

@ BYU -5 (64%)
NIU -15 (87%)
Idaho State -35.5 (100%)
@ USC +1 (49%)
Washington State -6 (66%)
@ Oregon State -13.5 (83.50%)
ASU -7.5 (73%)
Cal -9 (75%)
@ Washington +3.5 (40%)
UCLA -8 (74%)
@ Arizona -3 (57.5%)
Colorado -16.5 (89%)

8.58

Current 5Dimes price: 9 (-150 O/+130 U)

I have the Utes favored in 10 games, three by less than a TD. And I have them as short dogs at USC & Washington. So despite my number being 8.58, I believe there is a much higher probability of Utah hitting 9 wins than of them only winning 8 games.

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