I was dead wrong on the Purdue Boilermakers and their game against Boston College. Penn State delivered for me as they ran all over Illinois and had a strong finish to cover against Illinois. It appeared I would be 2-1 on the week but Ohio State elected to pass downfield while leading Tulane by more than 30 points in the game’s final five minutes. They would eventually score and cover against the Green Wave, dropping me to 1-2 on the week and 5-8 after four weeks of play.

Conference play has begun in earnest now, here are this week’s games featuring Big Ten squads: Central Michigan at Michigan State (-28.5), Indiana (-16.5) at Rutgers, Purdue (-3.5) at Nebraska, Michigan (-15) at Northwestern, Ohio State (-3.5) at Penn State

Indiana (-16.5) at Rutgers – Noon on BTN

My first pick this week is going to test just how poor the Rutgers Scarlet Knights are playing. Indiana has never been this high of a favorite in a conference road game but I don’t think the spread is high enough and I think the Hoosiers win this contest by 20+. The Scarlet Knights won their opener against Texas State but have been woeful since, getting blasted by Ohio State, Kansas and Buffalo. Their offense is not particularly strong at anything and I anticipate the Hoosiers defense flexing some muscle against Rutgers. IU lost against Michigan State but a pick six and a fake field goal that resulted in a touchdown masked the fact that Indiana was right there against MSU. Previous IU opponents Florida International, Ball State and Virginia have been varying degrees of successful (particularly the Cavaliers) and it leads me to believe the Hoosiers are better than Kansas or Buffalo, both of whom blew out Rutgers by well more than 17 points. IU will look to re-establish their running game and I expect Stevie Scott to have a nice afternoon. The only concern for IU would be the first half suspension of Marcelino Ball after a dubious targeting call. However, I don’t think that is near enough reason to shy away from picking the Hoosiers to win big and improve to 4-1 on the season.

Michigan (-15) at Northwestern – 4:30 on FOX

There is absolutely no reason that Northwestern should be able to hang around with the Michigan Wolverines. The Wildcats best offensive weapon, Jeremy Larkin, was forced to retire this week due to a diagnosis of spinal stenosis. Clayton Thorson has not exactly looked like a future NFL quarterback. The defense has been far from dominant as Purdue, Duke and Akron all had successful days against Northwestern. Meanwhile, Michigan has responded nicely to their season-opening defeat against Notre Dame as the offense has scored 49, 45 and 56 in three successive blowouts. The Wolverines appear to have found some rhythm in their running game and Karan Higdon is putting together a very nice season thus far. I know it can scary to take a road team giving a large number of points, particularly when everything is pointing to the favorite as the obvious choice. But quite frankly, I don’t see how Northwestern is going to score more than 14-17 points and they would need to keep the Wolverines in the 20s to cover. Give me Michigan as they continue to beat up on overmatched opposition before we really find out what they are made of in October (Wisconsin, Michigan State, Penn State in successive weeks).

Ohio State at Penn State (+3.5) – 7:30 on ABC

This is one of the biggest games of the season and the hype surrounding this contest has been building for a couple of weeks now. I know Ohio State won against TCU in Dallas but that was not a hostile atmosphere and it will come nowhere close to matching what the Buckeyes will see in State College on Saturday night. Penn State’s offense is operating at a very high-level and they have a great balance of running and passing. Trace McSorley is in complete command and a big night against Ohio State on the national stage could vault him into the Heisman discussion. While Penn State might not be quite as fast as TCU, the Horned Frogs didn’t look all that dangerous last weekend as Texas shut them down in the second half and I think Penn State has better skill position players and a better quarterback that will certainly test the young Ohio State defense. Make no mistake, it is scary betting against a team with the amount of talent the Buckeyes have and Dwayne Haskins appears to be a special quarterback. I just think the atmosphere that we’ll see at Penn State on Saturday night will be about as intimidating and hostile as there will be in the entire country all season and I will be taking the home team to get the job done.