“The Money Zone” (the difference between my calculated spread and the actual spread is between 2-6).   Games that fall within this tier have hit above 55% on a 350+ game sample.  I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run.  Since I’ve been running the formula, about half of all games fall within this tier.  This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc.  I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.  Think of the Money Zone as the 401k of your bankroll.

**2018 Money Zone Record is 15-6 (71.40%) ATS so Far!**

“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week:  Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow.  Read below for my in-depth analysis.  **2018 Shorestein Says Picks of the Week are 9-3 (75%) ATS so Far!**

New Orleans @ NY Giants +3.5:  Am I truly crazy for taking the Giants 2 weeks in a row?  If you’re a Giants fan, you would probably say yes….

However, this is more a play on how poorly the Saints defense has been so far.  I am honestly shocked, but if you read my season preview on the Saints, I mentioned that there was a possibility the defense could have trouble rebounding from it’s epic defensive failure in the playoffs last season.  Here is what the Saints have yielded for 2018 against the likes of Fitzpatrick, Tyrod Taylor & Matt Ryan:

These statistics are alarmingly bad.  I’ve been studying passing numbers for the past 5 years or so, and I honestly don’t think I’ve seen anything close to this before.  Granted, we are still operating on just a 3 game sample, but these types of trends don’t just go away.  At this rate, it’s hard to justify a team as a FG+ road favorite with a defense that is playing this poorly.

So this is obviously good news for Eli & Co.  The protection held up against a very talented defensive line in Houston, and they were able to right the ship on offense like I believed they would.  The challenge will come on defense for New York.  They’ve been good this season (notably in the red zone), but their lack of pass rush is a concern for me.  In order to slow down all of the Saints’ weapons it starts with making Brees feel some pressure in the pocket.  Keep an eye on the status of Olivier Vernon, and hope that he is good to go.

Random Thoughts from Around the League:

• Patriots…. Woof!
• Miami’s defense has been a true surprise for me. I think the Patriots will get their act together  this week, however.
• Mahomes’ first trip to Denver will be interesting….. Von Miller should give him a proper introduction!
• I was close to using Oakland as one of my picks of the week….. but then I started pulling numbers and none of it backed up my conclusions. That defense is just brutal, but don’t they have to win at some point?
• Fitzpatrick almost pulled off a 4^th quarter Money Zone miracle last week, but we were due for a loss like that.
• I thought Wentz looked pretty rusty last week. Indy’s defense also better than I anticipated.
• Chargers lost for me last week in typical Chargers fashion. Blocked punt TD, Missed extra points are all par for the course with that team that everyone loves to pick as their preseason “SuperBowl Favorite”
• It was nice to see Seattle get on the board and with Earl Thomas making plays all over the field. The league is more entertaining when they are relevant.
• Everyone is all jazzed up about the Bears, but until Trubisky learns to make NFL throws he’ll be just another Dak Prescott.

Good Luck!