ACC Pick of the Week: Florida State @ North Carolina State

The Wolfpack have actually won two of the last three times in Raleigh (28-24 in 2010, 17-16 in 2012). Although NC State lost the 2014 matchup at Carter-Finley Stadium, the Seminoles didn’t take their first lead in that game until late in the third quarter. And that was with No. 1 overall pick Jameis Winston.

Quarterback Deondre Francois has taken a lot of hits over the last month, and that likely won’t end on Saturday as the Wolfpack are tied for 19th in the country with 24 sacks. Darian Roseboro is developing into a solid defensive end, and Kentavius Street will be a factor. The stats won’t necessarily show it, but this is a physical defensive unit.

Stopping Dalvin Cook is the top priority for anyone playing Florida State, and that will be the key. NC State ranks 17th nationally in run defense at 112.9 yards per game, so it should be a great matchup.

I like NC State with the points here. Florida State just doesn’t have a lot left to play for with three losses now, and the Wolfpack are a hungry group still looking for that first signature win under coach Dave Doeren.

The Pick: NC State (+5.5)

North Carolina State DT Kentavius Street could be a key player against FSU on Saturday.

Bonus Pick: Virginia Tech @ Duke

Virginia Tech’s offense is really starting to click. The Hokies have scored 37 and 39 points in their last two games, and a lot of that has to do with Jerod Evans’ development as a passer. He averaged 209 passing yards per game in his first five, but the junior has averaged 324 pass yards per game over the last three. The Hokies can see the finish line now, and getting to the ACC Championship will motivate this team down the stretch. I like the offense to keep rolling in this one.

The Pick: Virginia Tech (-11)

Trending Up: Dalvin Cook and Virginia Tech’s Chances to Win the Division

Because of the win over North Carolina earlier this season, Virginia Tech took a big step towards making the ACC Championship with last week’s Pittsburgh win. They also have a favorable conference schedule down the stretch with Duke, Georgia Tech and Virginia remaining. Also trending up is Dalvin Cook, who exploded for 169 yards and four touchdowns last week against Clemson. That game put Cook over the 1000-yard mark, and he now sits at 1,069 yards and 11 touchdowns on the season.

Trending Down: Louisville’s Chances of Making the College Football Playoff

The committee had Louisville ranked seventh after the initial rankings, and that doesn’t offer a lot of hope for the Cardinals. Texas A&M and Ohio State both sit ahead of them with one loss, and Louisville doesn’t have another marquee matchup on the schedule. Also, Washington will almost certainly get in if it wins out, so a lot has to happen for the ACC to get two schools in the playoff.

Game to Stay Away From: Louisville (-25) @ Boston College

The spread here is tricky, and it’s one I would stay away from. Boston College won its first conference game since 2014 last week, and the Eagles rank 7th nationally in total defense. BC could build momentum off last week’s win and keep this game close, or the complete opposite could happen. Ranked at No. 7 in the initial CFP rankings, the Cardinals will need style points moving forward. After last week’s close game against Virginia, this just seems like one to leave alone.