Smitty’s Week 2 Picks

Not an ideal start last week going 1-2, but given the unknowns going into the opening weekend, not horrible. The next four or five weeks is where the real money is there to be made in college football. I’m a little short on time as I’m traveling this week, but here are my plays below.

Central Florida +35.5 @ Michigan

As I mentioned in our AAC preview, I really like this UCF team this year from a value perspective. Central Florida is being priced similarly to Hawaii last week, and if UCF and Hawaii met on a neutral that is a game that UCF would win by two scores, probably more in my opinion. When you look at Central Florida this year, you cannot underestimate the coaching upgrade. Scott Frost brings over the Oregon offense and he has a quarterback in Justin Holman who desperately needed a coaching upgrade. If you look at UCF’s roster, they recruit very well for a non-power 5 program and Frost didn’t walk into a bare cupboard. You won’t find me making an argument that UCF is on par with Michigan from a talent perspective, because they obviously aren’t. But is Michigan 36 points better than UCF? Not in my opinion. If UCF can score 14 points in this game, I think they cover. If they get more than that, we’re sitting very pretty. It’s an ugly spot, but I am going to continue to buy in on UCF if they are priced like this.

Tulsa +28.5 vs Ohio State

I’ll keep this one short and sweet. Tulsa’s offense is simply too good to be getting this many points. Do I think Ohio State is going to put up a lot of points? Absolutely. Enough to cover 4 scores against a team as offensively potent as Tulsa? Nope. When you factor in the spot for Ohio State going to Oklahoma next week, I think this plays out very well. If Ohio is up, say 35 points, and pulls their starters, Tulsa is going to keep slinging it and running tempo. Truthfully, in my opinion if Ohio State doesn’t come out really strong early, Tulsa has the ability to hang in this game for awhile. Nonetheless, with Tulsa’s offense at the very worst will give us a backdoor opportunity.

Middle Tennessee vs Vanderbilt UNDER 47.5

Death, Taxes, and Vandy unders. Rinse and repeat. As long as Mason is at the helm for Vanderbilt, their style of play is extremely predictable. Grind out the clock and play great defense. Vandy really lacks any explosive play capability which is the death of unders, and I think Middle Tennessee is certainly talented enough to play with Vandy and I really think they could be a live dog in this game if I’m looking at the points as well. First to 20 points wins this game.

Ball St +18 @ Indiana

I watched nearly every snap of both these teams games last weekend and was fairly shocked when I saw this spread open as high as it did. Thanks to FIU being unable to move the ball with any consistency whatsoever, IU was able to grind out a win that was a bit closer than the score suggested. To me, IU’s offense looked very clunky, and the defense played fairly well. But, Ball State is a different animal than FIU offensively. Ball State is a team I’m high on right now, and with the new offensive philosophy I think they have a chance to go into Bloomington and give Big Bro a scare Saturday.

The card:

UCF +35.5

Tulsa +28.5

Middle Tennessee vs Vandy U 47.5

Ball State +18