SMU Mustangs @Baylor Bears (-32, O/U 76)

This is a strange matchup, because thanks to Baylor’s offseason of incredible upheaval it’s hard to get a read on just what the Bears are going to be capable of this year.  On the one hand, the Bears were a healthy QB away from at least a share of the Big 12 title (though you could say the same for TCU) and the recruiting has been top tier for the past 5 years.  On the other hand, there was the terrible, horrible, no good, very bad thing that removed the head coach, several transfers and much of the depth that Baylor was going to count on to reload this year.  And that doesn’t even mention the linchpin of Baylor’s defensive improvement, Andrew Billings, moving to the next level, leaving Baylor lacking in experience on the O-line and playmakers on the D-line.  With so many question marks, it’s hard to feel good about betting big on Baylor one way or another.  With that rather weighty disclaimer thrown in, though, there’s still value to be had in weeks where the opponent is as unique as SMU.

The Pick- Take the over.  Baylor 66, SMU 38

SMU doesn’t have the talent defensively to be able to slow the Bears, so it’s not a big leap to assume that the Bears will do more than their share in covering the over.  That said though, while SMU is still lacking in defensive talent, they return an absolute ton on the offensive side.  The mustang’s starting QB, top two running backs, top eight pass targets and seven o-linemen with starting experience return, and while Baylor’s secondary should be decent, the decimation of the d-line and lacking pass rush means that they may have to hold on longer than a decent secondary can.  In some games you can just feel the points piling up to justify taking a huge over, TCU at Texas Tech last year was one of them, and this game has all the hallmarks of another.

Iowa State Cyclones @ Iowa Hawkeyes (-15, O/U 51)

Two rival fanbases in varying states of upset this week.  Cyclone fans are despondent because they dropped their opener to an FCS opponent for the third year out of four, taking a bit of the shine from what should still be a very good new coaching hire.  Iowa fans are pleased that things came together for a Rose Bowl win last year, but seem concerned about coach Kirk Ferentz’s new ten year contract extension after one big season in a string of relatively disappointing ones.  Despite the negativity though, this game should actually be quite interesting, and has several bets with value- particularly after ISU’s loss to Northern Iowa last week.

The Pick (Of the week)-  Take the Cyclones and the points, but the under is a great bet too.  Iowa 18, ISU 10

Two things were lost in the box score of Iowa State’s loss to Northern Iowa- the first is that Northern Iowa is actually a very good FCS team, ranked #5 in the preseason FCS coaches poll and #3 in the computer rankings for FCS teams, and even highly ranked FBS teams can struggle with strong FCS competition (As TCU’s game with FCS computer ranked #6 SDSU illustrated).  The second is that Iowa State’s defense actually did really well, though the box score showed UNI with 25, 15 of those points came from an ISU fumble, safety and interception, and UNI’s other touchdown came on the possession after that ISU safety as well, leaving just three points as UNI’s non-assisted offensive output.  While the fact that ISU’s offense self-destructed a bit is definitely cause for hesitation, Iowa’s defense is not as turnover focused as UNI’s, and though the talent level is definitely an upgrade over UNI, ISU probably isn’t going to turn the ball over four times this week.  Combine that with a bit of history- Iowa hasn’t beaten Iowa State by 16 or more in any of the past five games, Kirk Ferentz has beaten Iowa State by 16 or more just three times in his long career as Iowa Head coach and Iowa rarely beats even its FCS opponents by 15 points and you have the makings of a tight defensive slugfest.  That will probably be enough to let Iowa escape with a win, but not enough to cover a two touchdown spread.

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Arizona State Sun Devils (-3, O/U 79.5)

Just looking at the over/under, the thought is immediately “Man, that’s a huge over for anything”.  Then the names on the marquee click and the next thought is “Well… that actually sounds about right.”  Arizona State welcomes Texas Tech into the infamous world of “Pac 12 after dark” this week in one of the Big 12’s marquee out of conference contests coming off a very down season in 2015 and with defensive issues aplenty.  Texas Tech… remains Texas Tech, which means that the offense is going to be good enough to outscore most opponents, while the defense will be bad enough that the offense will have to outscore most opponents if they’re going to get a win.  Those are the sort of things that tend to make an over/under tempting, but this matchup may actually be stilted more in one teams favor than the general courtesy home team spread would indicate.

The Pick- Take Tech and the points or outright.  Texas Tech 47, Arizona State 34

It’s probably a bit early in the year to make a good call on such a massive over/under, as while each team historically offers offensive firepower and defensive susceptibility to firepower, there’s a lot of variability that comes into hitting an O/U that high.  The safer money is picking a winner, and there are a lot of reasons on both sides of the ball to take the Raiders on the road.  The first is that Tech’s QB Patrick Mahomes was one of the most talented offensive players in the nation last year, and that was hobbling around on a bad ankle for a significant chunk of the season.  Mahomes is accurate, makes good decisions and has the feet to pick up a first down or more anytime the defense drops too many defenders to stop the ball from coming out quickly- and his strengths play in perfectly to the weaknesses of the Arizona state defense, who were ripped by Northern Arizona’s Case Cookus for a 70% completion rate at almost 12 yards a pop last week.  The Sun Devils built and padded a lead in the second half because Northern Arizona wasn’t able to establish any sort of run game, but Texas Tech’s air raid passing game commands so much attention that they manage a very efficient running game as well.

Still, in order for Tech to pull the upset they’ll need to have more than just the more consistent offense, and this is where Tech may start to take steps forward for the first time in not just Kingsbury’s career at Tech, but in Tuberville’s tenure before it, Tech is returning the same defensive coordinator as last season, and while Tech has been susceptible to giving up big plays in previous seasons, Arizona State managed just one play of more than 20 yards against Northern Arizona last week on both the ground and in the air, choosing to dink and dunk at about 6-7 yards a take, running more plays, but also increasing the likelihood that Tech’s turnover focused defense can make a play to turn the game on its head.  Take Tech this week and enjoy the fireworks.

Last week’s good call/hard lesson of the week.

The under on West Virginia/Missouri certainly turned out to be a good pick, but Texas surpassed all expectations of a new offense and a true freshman quarterback in their OT win against Notre Dame.  I will certainly think twice about betting in games featuring teams with an entirely new offensive or defensive system in the opening week in the future, particularly if they have the raw talent of a team like Texas.