College Football Reality Has an SEC Bias

There’s been some complaining across the national landscape that there’s a “media bias” which favors Southeastern Conference teams amongst pollsters. Mississippi State stunned the world with its jaunt to #1 in the country (45 of 60 first place votes). Ole Miss isn’t far off their heels at #3 (with three first place votes). The best “one-loss” teams are both from the SEC, with Auburn at #6 and Alabama at #7. Georgia isn’t too far back at #10.

You could see why this would anger avid fans from other parts of the country. But, the last eight BCS championships games have overwhelmingly showed that College Football REALITY has an SEC bias.

SEC VS. THE WORLD IN BCS CHAMPIONSHIPS

Florida (+7) beat Ohio State 41-14 (covered by 34 points)

LSU (-3.5) beat Ohio State 38-24 (covered by 10.5 points)

Florida (-5.5) beat Oklahoma 24-14 (covered by 4.5 points)

Alabama (-3.5) beat Texas 37-21 (covered by 12.5 points)

Auburn (+1) beat Oregon 22-19 (covered by 4 points)

Alabama (-10) beat Notre Dame 42-14 (covered by 18 points)

Auburn (+11.5) lost to Florida State 34-31 (covered by 8.5 points)

I left out the Alabama-LSU game three seasons ago because that was the SEC against itself. The listing shows the last seven times (over eight seasons) when an SEC team has played an outsider. The SEC is 7-0 against market pointspreads, with a 6-1 straight up record that just missed being 7-0 even though Auburn was a double digit underdog.

There were extenuating circumstances when Colt McCoy left the Texas/Alabama game early. But, even if you were to pencil in a Texas victory there (far from a certainty, of course), the trend is still dominant. The SEC is the best, and it’s not even close. The average cover margin over the seven games was 13.1. The median was the 10.5 cover by LSU over OSU. Even though the marketplace was aware that the SEC was great…the SEC still beats championship expectations by double digits as a “typical” result.

The market has been incorrectly biased against the SEC!

Books could be written about why this has occurred. An easy shorthand from the stathead perspective is to look at third down conversions in those games. The SEC has dominated the point of attack during this stretch of superiority. They march down the field when they have the ball. They put up a wall even when very talented opponents try to march.

THIRD DOWN CONVERSION RATES (SEC team listed first)

Florida 53%, Ohio State 11% (Buckeyes just 1 of 9)

LSU 61%, Ohio State 23% (Buckeyes just 3 of 13)

Florida 71%, Oklahoma 46% (Gators 12 of 17)

Alabama 17%, Texas 35% (the only loss, and SEC defense was still solid)

Auburn 53%, Oregon 33% (“unstoppable” Quack Attack only 5 of 15)

Alabama 62%, Notre Dame 25%

Auburn 56%, Florida State 17% (Seminoles just 2 of 12)

It’s a tribute to Florida State’s playmaking offense last year that they could come-from-behind to win the championship with just 2 of 12 on third downs. Over the seven games in total, the SEC converted 62 of 114 for 54%, while their opponents were 25 of 97 for 26%. In the biggest games of the year. With everything on the line.

It’s also a reminder that third down conversions are a great “indicator” stat for quality in college football. One of the quickest paths to understanding strengths and weaknesses of any program through a statistical lens is to study their conversion rates on both sides of the ball. If your handicapping time is limited, take a shortcut to the third down stats.

The SEC dominates college football because they dominate the point of attack when possessions are on the line. Until somebody else starts doing that to them in the biggest games that matter most, the conference deserves all the poll respect it’s been getting.

Some misleading final scores from last week…

• Oklahoma needed a kickoff return TD and an interception return TD to surge past Texas 31-26. The underdog Longhorns won total yardage 482-232, yards-per-play 5.7 to 4.6, and third down conversion rates 39% to 9% (Sooners just 1 of 11 on third downs). Oklahoma was very lucky to avoid back-to-back losses to TCU and Texas with current Big 12 favorite Baylor still ahead on the schedule.

• In one of the “hidden” stunners of the whole season, Oklahoma State was outgained 379-275 by horrible Kansas in a 27-20 victory. Okie State broke a late 20-all tie with a game-winning kickoff return for a touchdown. State’s offensive TD’s came on drives of 48 and 30 yards. They managed only 4.0 yards-per-play compared to 4.9 for Kansas. The Cowboys were favored by three touchdowns, and were fortunate to get out of Lawrence with a win.

• UAB’s 56-21 victory over North Texas was keyed by a 5-0 turnover advantage and three defensive touchdowns. North Texas actually won total yardage 451-448, while UAB’s advantage on a per-play basis was only 6.2 to 5.7. Both teams were 43% on third downs. Be careful attributing too much “explosiveness” to UAB off that scoreboard result.

• Clemson beat Louisville 23-17 without scoring a single offensive touchdown…while converting only 2 of 16 third down tries! A punt return TD and a fumble return TD helped make up for a lack of offense. Louisville had its own issues on third down with a 1 of 17 debacle. Louisville was the slight stat victor with a 264-229 edge in yardage, 3.8 to 3.2 per-play. Should have been a 13-10 type win for the road dog.

• Kentucky needed two interception return touchdowns to pull away from Louisiana-Monroe in its 48-14 victory. The Wildcats only won total yardage 352-264, and were a woeful 1 of 12 on third downs against a Sun Belt opponent.

• Hawaii was more dominant than its 38-28 scoreboard win over Wyoming would have suggested. Don’t forget to check on those late night finishes! Hawaii won total yardage 513-322, rushing yardage 232-101, yards-per-play 6.8 to 5.1, and third down conversions 44% to 20%. One of Wyoming’s TD’s was on a fumble return. Thirty-one of Hawaii’s 38 points came on drives of 66 yards or more (75-71-86-51-66 on their five TD’s). Wyoming only had two long TD drives.

See you again next Wednesday.

Jeff Fogle is a freelance writer living in Austin, Texas. He writes about college and pro football, college and pro basketball, and MLB on his blog StatIntelligence. You can follow Jeff on Twitter @JeffFogle.