In part 1 of the Handicapping Tutorial series, I touched upon the simple tools and formula’s in Microsoft Excel that I utilize every single day in capping not just college football, but all sports. In Part 2, I will give some color in the sources I use to grow my knowledge before season, as well as during.

Handicapping Tutorial – Part 2

The sporting world today is dominated by statistical analysis. Not just from a gambling or sport’s investing perspective, but GM’s are now behind the curve if they aren’t utilizing statistical analysis, similar to the “Money Ball” theory, in the building of their team. Players are becoming much more accustom to analyze advance statistics prior to a game. Coaches use stats to game plan. You cannot escape it. Knowledge is king, and the more you know, the better.

Part 2 of the handicapping tutorial will cover the knowledge capital. I will go through many of the different places I find statistics and information and will frequently reference these in the tutorials to follow.

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Pre-Season

With 124 teams, it is very hard to keep track of every single team and all the off-season occurance’s. So, let other people do it for you. Here are some of the sources I use and how I incorporate them into my data analysis or plays.

Phil Steele

Phil Steele was one of the first guys to publish his statistical findings. He still claims he doesn’t use it for gambling purposes, and I am a little weary of his game projections. What he is really good at though, is pre-season analysis. He has a magazine he releases that analyzes every team, which is very helpful. Check out his blog as well, where he post lots of useful information. Any of his charts he post can be Paste Value -> Match Destination Formatting into excel.

SB Nation

SB Nation is an unbelievable source of information for every single team. It stands for “Sports Blog Nation,” and besides The Saturday Edge obviously, I don’t think there is a more comprehensive supply of knowledge. They have an Advance Statistics Blog that has extremely in depth, well-explained schematic and statistical analysis. I read pretty much anything this blog post. Its a great blog to follow if you are just a fan following your team, or a sports investor trying to find an edge or insight into the team, as those very close to the program as a majority of the bloggers.

Football Study Hall, the Advanced Statistic Blog for SB Nation,did amazing work posting a profile of every team in the country. This profile analyzed who the team lost, who they gained, and what their Rival’s rankings were. This was a crucial part of my early season analysis.

During the Season

Some of the crucial analysis I do in capping games is utilizing different stats. I talked in Part 1 about the web query. I primarily pull my information from two websites: Ncaa.org and CFBstats.com.

When you are looking for web queries, you want to find a site that stays consistent in its format, and both of these websites do that.

As I mentioned above, I also like to read some blogs just for perspective. I enjoy what Phil Steele has to write. I don’t necessarily love how he handicaps a game (more historical, not as forward looking and predictive).

To get the most updated lines at the big off-shore books, I use Pregame.com’s Sportsbook Spy. A very handy tool to get everything in front of you at once.

Good to Read

A certain amount of capping comes from knowing the team. Its impossible to know everything, but you can never do enough reading or research. There are many places to do that. What’s important is being able to flush out the garbage and focus on the important things. Don’t ever make a play based on one thing you read, because there is always a story with the opposite side out there. Some of the things I like to read:

The RX Forum

This is the forum where all of the TSE guys met. There is some good information, with lots of readers and contributors. There is also alot of garbage.

Beyond the Bets

This site has emerged as the go-to for all things gambling related. What many don’t realize is they also have a great forum. It isn’t quite as active as some of the others, but there is tons of really smart/sharp guys that contribute thoughts and information.

BTB Twitter Beat Writers

Another thing that BTB did which is so helpful, is compile a list of all of the beat writers for each team. This is frequently the best read on a team. The beat writers usually get information the fastest.

CFB Matrix

Dave Bartoo, a TSE guest, has a great model that relies on talent and coaching. He has a pay service, but also has a great twitter and website.

There really are just too many websites to list, but those are some of the few that I like to frequent. If you have any that you like to use, please let me know. The intellectual capital that can be found online is astounding.

Coming Next…

Stay tuned for Part 3 of the Handicapping Tutorial. This is where I will finally get into the capping. I will focus Part 3 on how to handicap the early season games, while also touching on the Future’s market.

 

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For analysis, commentary, plays and randomness, follow @mtsabert on twitter.