If sports betting was simple, we could all quit our day jobs and handicap for a living. Unfortunately, sports betting is not easy, and plays that should win all the time, usually don’t even win most of the time.

Betting on baseball is no different.  Many people mistake elite pitchers for profitable pitchers, and vice versa, mediocre pitchers for non profitable pitchers.

In fact, the pattern is often the opposite. A franchise pitcher who has a style that scares Vegas, will make for very little value. As I discussed in my previous article, 5 Under the Radar Pitchers that may have great value in 2018, the most profitable pitchers are often the ones that stay low key. Today I will discuss starting pitchers with very little room for profitability. 

Here are 5 Pitchers that offer low betting value in 2018:

 

Chris Archer (Tampa Bay Rays)

As much as I admire the Tampa Bay Rays development system, their struggles for this upcoming season are almost inevitable. Tampa Bay saw several significant departures this winter, and will look like a glorified AAA team to start 2018. One of the bright spots currently in the roster coming into the season is number one Pitcher Chris Archer. Some may go as far as to call him an Ace, as he is the only truly proven pitcher in that Rays rotation. However, he certainly has not put up elite numbers so far in his short career.

Archer finished last season with an above 4 ERA, and has a career ERA so far of 3.63. While this is still a solid start to his career, he is also getting a lot of undeserved attention, as he is often put in categories of others who have maintained elite numbers over a longer period of time.

The reason for him be overvalued is due to his ability to generate strikeouts, and throw effective 95+ mph fastballs. Archer has averaged nearly 10K/9 innings in his five full seasons so far, and will likely continue to record high strikeout totals win or lose.

This year, I’m afraid that loss category will go up even more. Tampa was already a team on the decline last season, and Archer still turned out to be a favorite in half of his starts in 2017. I expect the oddsmakers to show him even more favor this season, as him being on the mound may be some of the only times that Tampa Bay moneylines are well respected upon creation.

However, with the lack of talent in every other aspect of the team, I don’t see much value in taking him at reduced odds. Really pick your spots with Chris Archer in 2018, because there won’t be many.

 

Madison Bumgarner (San Francisco Giants)

At this point, I am sure most baseball followers are aware of the improvements that the San Francisco Giants made to their team this offseason to overcome a last place finish in 2017. These improvements will put the Giants back on the list as a household franchise coming into 2018, and with that may come some lost value.

Madison Bumgarner, who is the undisputed Ace of the Giants, is known for his clutch performances during intense periods of the season. However, Bumgarner does not necessarily rank as a top pitcher during the regular season. While still putting up Ace-like numbers, you will rarely see him competing to be the lowest ERA during regular seasons, and you will see multiple implosions by him when least expected as well.

Mad Bum will show up for big games, including those against the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw, but will slip at other times against teams that are not that good.

Bumgarner will continue to be seen by the Sportsbooks as one of the best pitchers today, and in doing so will continue to receive terrible odds on his starts. Last year, in his 17 starts, Bumgarner ranked as the third least profitable starting pitcher in baseball, with a unit loss of -9.01 units had you bet him in every start.

While he has a better team in front of him this year, his odds may end up getting worse and worse to the point that the Giants will have to win nearly everytime he is pitching in order for profits to be seen.

Also upon speculation, keep in mind that the Hickory, NC native sat on the shelf for extended periods of time in 2017 as a result of injuries that were sustained in extracurricular activities such as wood cutting and dirt biking.

One may question whether motivation is any longer a factor for Madison, who already has three World Series Rings before the age of 30. If there is any lost interest in the sport on Bumgarner’s behalf, then perhaps even look to bet against him and try to profit simply off the high odds.

 

Yu Darvish (Chicago Cubs)

The Chicago Cubs have re-established themselves as a household franchise in the MLB, and are generally going to receive extremely high favor and praise from oddsmakers as long as they remain competent. That they will, as they acquired Japanese Ace Yu Darvish in the offseason.

Darvish has never really had the benefit of having a team that consistently closes out wins for him when he pitches, but he has always ranked among the top in strikeouts in his career in the majors. He holds an MLB career average of 11 Ks/9 innings, and with no significant tweaks to his arsenal, I don’t expect much to change here.

Darvish has always received high favor mainly due to his strikeout ability and Ace status, and now we can couple that up with him being on a team that is also already receiving high favor from recent accomplishments.

None of the top three Cubs pitchers were profitable last season, and I expect that trend to continue. The Cubs would have to go back into 2016 form for anyone to have much of a chance to profit in regularly betting them with their Aces.

 

Rick Porcello (Boston Red Sox)

Apart from the Boston Red Sox being the Boston Red Sox with their lucrative signings, there is no other justification for Rick Porcello’s monster $20+ million a year contract.

In all seriousness, nothing in his 9 season career so far has indicated or suggested that he is even remotely close to elite. Okay, he did win a Cy Young with a 3+ ERA and a 22 win total because of his all star team behind him … but other than that, he had maybe one other respectable season. However, he did get paid, and along with the pay came the hype.

Porcello has a career ERA of 4.25, and is coming off a 4.65 ERA season which is more or less par for the course of his career. He is a five pitch specialist, that can fall into and out of rhythm any time. Under normal circumstances, Porcello is the number three pitcher in that rotation, and will continue to be absurdly overvalued against the opposition.

A very startling fact from last season shows that the Red Sox were favored in 31 of Porcello’s 34 starts, but finished with a losing record with him on the mound.

Will sportsbooks come to their senses and adjust his odds back down to more reasonable numbers? If it were any team but Boston, New York, Chicago, or Los Angeles, I would say possibly. However, on an even more stacked Red Sox team than last year, expect him to continue to be overvalued for a negative profit once again if betting on him.

 

Jake Arrieta (Philadelphia Phillies)

When we think of the most intriguing journeys of any pitcher in the past decade, Jake Arrieta’s name comes to mind. The 32 year old has had quite the transformation in his eight year career in the majors so far, as he stepped foot in the MLB in 2010 as a very mediocre pitcher who relied quite heavily on a very average four seam fastball.

Jake was seen as a incompetent struggling Orioles pitcher through his first four seasons in the majors, and then hit a switch in 2014 with the Chicago Cubs. Arrieta started working on a very unique cutter pitch which allowed him to be in immaculate rhythm for nearly two full seasons, earning him an all star appearance, a Cy Young award, and ultimately a World Series Ring in 2016.

Last year however, Arrieta started to slip a bit as he lost command with the pitch that he had executed so well for a couple years. He still finished with a respectable 3.53 ERA, but the main concern here is that adjustments had to be made, and we may never see his cutter be as effective as it was at the end of 2015.

Sportsbooks, however, do not see things in the same light, as the Chicago Cubs were favored in all but one of Jake’s 30 regular season starts last year, for a -4.28 unit loss had you taken them every game which he started.

Will he see the same kind of respect in a Phillies uniform? Probably not to that extent, but he will be the undisputed Ace to start the season due to his established stature. Arrieta is going to continue to be overvalued, but this time with a less potent lineup backing him up than he is used to.

I expect Arrieta to continue to be looked at as an Ace, but for him to perform as just an above average pitcher longing for another readjustment in 2018.

 

The Saturday Edge

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