In previous baseball handicapping articles, I discussed 5 Tips to Making Smart MLB Bets, Why to Consider Betting on the First 5 Innings and 5 Things to Avoid when Betting on Baseball. Today, I would like to give you some real examples.

Every year, we find that the most profitable pitchers to bet on are usually not the superstars, but more often the above average pitchers that are usually not respected by the oddsmakers despite proving that most games can be won by their team whenever they are called to duty.

Today, I will break down 5 under the radar pitchers that have a good chance at being profitable to bet on in 2018. Again, this is not a suggestion to auto ride them in every start, but it is a note to acknowledge the value when available.

 

Lucas Giolito (Chicago White Sox)

Let’s start with the not-so-low-key name, in comparison to the rest of the list. Lucas Giolito has been a top prospect in baseball for awhile, and has had his fair share of tweaking and adjusting in his journey to the Majors. Despite his near phenom potential, he has been able to avoid the headlines. This is largely due to the fact that his team was quite incompetent in 2017, and he didn’t join the corps until the Chicago White Sox were more or less eliminated from any Playoff contention. Couple that with the fact that there were even larger name prospects on the team last year, and well…maybe Lucas is still quite under the radar.

In Giolito’s small sample, he had seven starts with the White Sox near the end of the season, and I was highly impressed. Chicago went 4-3 in his starts, and they were underdogs in every single one of them. Since there has been very little talk about his 2.38 ERA during that stretch (involving five very Ace-like performances), expect his value to remain high for at least the start of the year. The Los Angeles native has not proven any heavy strikeout potential yet in the majors, so expect him to continue to stifle batters with his command.

Giolito is expected to start the season at the number two spot in the pitching rotation behind James Shields, but I would not be the least bit surprised if he becomes the number one guy sooner than later. I expect Chicago to continue to grow and develop, and have a much better season than last year. At a top spot, Giolito will most likely have high value going up against top pitchers from other teams. I believe he will prove to be one of the Elites within his first few seasons, but do take advantage of his value early before the books catch on.

 

Andrew Cashner (Baltimore Orioles)

It was just three years ago, when Andrew Cashner was seen as one of the best emerging pitchers in baseball. After a series of injuries and bad rhythm created by them, Cashner is nowadays seen by many as just a damaged pitcher who can be effective as a “filler” in a rotation.

Cashner signed a two year deal with the Baltimore Orioles just weeks ago, and this could be a Diamond in a Rough signing for them. Baltimore was hindered by pitching woes last year, and witnessed very significant struggles from their top two pitchers in Kevin Gausman and Chris Tillman. Tillman was the most profitable pitcher to bet on in 2016, but went through injuries that really made 2017 a large speed bump for him. Nonetheless, Cashner is still projected to be the number four pitcher for Baltimore to start the season, with Gausman, Tillman, and Bundy preceding him in the rotation.

Andrew Cashner had a fantastic 2017 in my eyes, as he did not get the respect of anyone in the baseball world, but still managed to string together a respectable season. Cashner finished 15th out of all major league starters with a 3.40 ERA, and bettors would have profited 3 units had they taken him in all 28 of his starts in 2017. The Rangers went 14-14 in his starts, and this really helps to illustrate his value last season.

Part of the reason for a lack of acknowledgement of Cashner’s performance is the fact that he was among the lowest of all starting pitchers in strikeouts, with 4.64 Ks/9 in 2017. Cashner is a contact pitcher, and they are often snuffed by oddsmakers because they don’t have a backup power weapon if their location is not where it needs to be. However, he was consistent with his style and only had five bad starts all season in 2017. Now he is on a better team, in a more favorable matchup spot in the rotation, so expect his value to remain high and for him to continue to dazzle with his newly introduced cutter pitch.

 

Chase Anderson (Milwaukee Brewers):

Speaking of athletes who are completely snuffed by coverage, the guy who had the 6th best ERA out of any starter in 2017 shiuld not be under the radar. But let’s face it, casual MLB followers don’t even know who this guy is, and it is just baffling. At least the Milwaukee Brewers have had the sense to name him the Opening Day pitcher in 2018.

Chase Anderson had my eye from the minute I saw the consistency in his cutter last year. In my opinion, 2017 was Anderson’s breakout year. The Texas native added two clicks to his fastball, and also evolved into a five pitch guy with the addition of the cutter to his arsenal. This allowed the Brewers to be victorious in 14 of his 25 starts, where he recorded a 2.74 ERA. Of those 25 starts that Anderson had, the Brewers were only favored in five of them. I don’t think it is necessary for me to state this, but clearly Anderson was a significantly profitable pitcher last season.

Coming into 2018, he may get a little bit more recognition, but the lost value in that will be tacked back on due to the fact that he is likely going to remain at the top of the rotation and facing top competition. If Anderson can maintain the same type of rhythm with his cutter, he may be en route through a similar journey as Jake Arrieta. Perhaps it will take this season for heads to finally turn, so take advantage of his value while you can.

 

Jose Urena (Miami Marlins):

The Miami Marlins will be hard pressed to find themselves in any positive light of attention in 2018, but there are a few bright spots coming into the year, and Jose Urena is one of them. The Santo Domingo native pitched his first full season as a starter in 2017, and remained very low key despite putting together a very impressive and consistent campaign. In all 28 of his starts, the Marlins won 17 games and Urena finished the season with a 3.82 ERA and only saw five outings with a 4 ER or more. The 26 year old is primed for a breakout season, and I would not be surprised if he turned some heads this year.

Urena relies heavily on a four seam fastball with an average velocity of 95 mph, and has a nice slider and changeup as secondary pitches. He has molded his arsenal to the conditions of the home indoor stadium, and is virtually the only pitcher (with the exception of newcomer Sandy Alcantara) in the rotation who exhibits power in his arsenal. He has been announced as the opening day starter, which means he will likely remain as the team’s Ace in 2018. He may have some tough matchup competitions, but with that comes a lot of value. 

Obviously, the Marlins are not expected to be contenders this upcoming season, so don’t blindly ride Urena against top competition. However, there will be lots of added value in good spots to take him. Urena was the 8th most profitable pitcher in 2017, with a +7.57 unit profit, and will receive likely even higher value in his starts this year.

 

Jason Vargas (New York Mets):

The New York Mets have quietly and gradually improved their team throughout the winter, and have the potential to be decent contenders in 2018 if all the cards fall into place. Part of their building process included the acquisition of veteran Jason Vargas. The 35 year old has never been known for velocity or extravagant stuff, as he has never averaged a fastball above 89 mph in any season in the majors. Vargas has always been a cool and composed pitcher that has relied on groundouts and flyouts, and started last season very well with a heavy change up and curveball duo. He has nearly completely eliminated the four seamer from his arsenal, so expect the odds to go up even higher for him this year in some instances. 

Vargas will become a regular starting pitcher in the National League for the first time in his career, and will likely be at the back end of an ultra stacked Mets pitching rotation. Expect him to turn some heads early in the season, and have many National League sluggers looking for answers. He was the fourth most profitable pitcher in 2017, at +8.80 units. Look for that number to possibly rise, as Vargas becomes one of baseball’s most stable but versatile pitchers. At worse, we will have some favorable totals when he is going up against top pitchers.

 

The Saturday Edge

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