Pezgordo’s Week # 11 College Football Picks
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21 thoughts on “Pezgordo’s Week # 11 College Football Picks”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
Have been playing a few of your unders this season and likeing it too! Lets hope we can cash this under tonight.
BOL with ALL your action this week.
b0BOL
Thanks Doug. On paper tonight’s total isn’t quite as good as last weeks UW-Cal game where we had 2 inept offenses. But we also have an elite defense tonight, so hopefully that will pay off.
Like it!!
very selective…
clem/mary u55 would seem to fit your “only one team scores/total in the 50’s” model…
Yes, they were one of the first games on my list. Jimmy wasn’t to high on Mary’s D though. Thinks they are beat up and just lost their top LB. But it is still on my list. Last week Mary ran the ball 44 times and only attempted 18 passes (9 completions).
MD’s Diggs (WR/KR) and Brown (RB) are both out for this game. They have been the best WR/RB, so this is really going to make it hard for MD to score.
Thanks for the info Michael. I really doubt Mary scores more than 10-14 here, will Clemson score 40+? Under normal circumstances I would doubt it, but who knows how much help the Mary offense will be to the D.
That FSU-Va Tech push SUCKED. FSU D was overrated as usual. Since when does Logan Thomas actually look like a competent QB? Plus the freaking number was sitting at 51 for most of the day and by the time I got around to finally taking a look at the game it had moved to 50.
Pez some of “us” went under 49.5 coupled with FSU…..Thats the tuff part of following at Bad numbers. You prove it almost every week with a push or a win. By you playing extremely early to the good numbers that some of us cant reach later always shows down.
FSU was just Wrong….What was i thinkin a Double Digit Road Chalk on thursday night….I must have been drinkin! Whew!!
I am really sorry Doug. I should have gotten that total posted at 51 so at the very least everyone got 50. The thing is, 49 & 50 aren’t even key total numbers (48, 51 & 52 are much stronger #’s), but that freaking safety threw everything out of whack.
As for laying DD on the road, I guess that is a personal preference. Sabert has done it several times throughout the season with great success. I personally will ALMOST NEVER lay DD on the road. Last night’s game is a great example of why I won’t do it. On paper FSU was superior to VT in every way. But Thursday night at home in front of a national TV audience? You could almost be assured that FSU was going to get VT’s best shot. I believe Sabert calls it the “Super Bowl” effect. Last night was VT’s Super Bowl.
One last point and I mentioned this on Twitter before last night’s game. There is a correlation between favorites & over and underdogs & under. And the closer the percentage between the two the stronger the correlation.
Using last nights game as an example, the spread (13) was 26% of the total (let’s use 50 for the example). That is a pretty high correlation. I know most books won’t even let you make a correlated parlay (under w/ dog or fav w/ over) at 30% or more.
So by going favorite/under on such a high % of the total, your wagers were kind of at odds with each other. Not to say that FSU couldn’t have beaten them 27-10 and you would have won them both, just saying that from a % perspective, the odds of that happening are not in your favor.
Pez,
Looking at 3 more games and would like your thoughts. LA tech (-20) vs Tex. St, Kent St (-6.5) vs Miami (OH), or Penn St (+7) vs Nebraska.
MoMoney, I have been short on time this week and haven’t had an opportunity to look at as many games as I usually do.
La Tech -20. I really know very little about Texas State, but as a personal rule I don’t look to take bad defenses on the road, especially laying 3 TDs.
Kent State -6.5. I’d lean Kent State. OpeningLine pointed out to me yesterday that Miami, OH’s run D is not very good and Kent can run the ball.
Penn State +8.5 (now, I saw it as high as +9.5 yesterday). I was able to take a look at this one and based on my numbers, 8.5 is too many points. Nebraska has also been living on the edge last few weeks, getting some good “luck.” Penn State has a good TO ratio and may not “help” the Cornhuskers. Could be a close one. I may still wager on this one myself.
Understand about the parlays. That was the first riad chalk that i have been on this year……..bout right….lol
Moveing on the the Newletter as thats maybe what i use along with Texas Tech as starting 0-2 is not a real good position starting the morning, as i am sure you might have had that feeling at some point in your life. Looking forward to the Newsletter matchups!!!
Bol with ALL your action as always.
Pez,
Man,love the news letter you guys put out and your work on SEC press pass. They have been a great help. Do you dabble in NFL picks at all? I could use help on sundays.
Thanks Eric. I am glad that you like the newsletter and weekly SEC video (even though last week’s pick was terrible). No I don’t do the NFL. I’ve never enjoyed it enough to devote any of my handicapping time to it. College football keeps me pretty busy.
Good luck this weekend.
Just found this site this past week.
Was following Sabert & now I’m here.
Some very good cappers here & alot of
good reads. Just wanted to stop by &
wish u good luck this week on your pix.
I will be with ya on the Col/Ariz Un &
maybe a couple of others. Thanks for the
pix.
TNVOLFAN, I am glad you found the site and that you like it. I hope we can keep winning. Best of luck to you today.
Pez,
Excellent work with your selections and the site. Knock em dead this week buddy.
Continued success.
ERM, great to hear from you man. I see you are having a solid season over at the forum. BOL to you and let’s kill them this weekend.
LOVE TSE! Great info from all!
Still have only received 2 newsletters- only have a access thru my phone, and don’t ha e a “junk” folder- any suggestions?
Thanks!