Pezgordo’s Week # 10 College Football Picks
Pezgordo’s College Football Picks – YTD: 60-51 ATS
9-3 last week. I went 8-2 on posted picks and 1-1 with newsletter exclusive picks, which included losing the newsletter ML parlay pick. I hate losing this pick. I am now 2-1 with posted ML parlay picks, but 8-2 overall on them for the season. I vow to get back on track this weekend. I was 3-0 in PAC 12 selections last week and I believe I am 9-1 the last two weeks with totals (all unders).
Tags AlabamaCaliforniaColoradoECUGeorgia TechLSUMarylandMichigan StateMississippi StateStanfordVirginiaWashington
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17 thoughts on “Pezgordo’s Week # 10 College Football Picks”
Leave a Reply to Seth Cancel reply
MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
Good luck. I really like the LSU +10 and Under 42.5 picks. I don’t understand why LSU is a double-digit dog at home. I’d say LSU’s HFA is one of the best in college football. Also, the total doesn’t make much sense. Last year, both totals closed at 41 and I’d say LSU’s offense has taken a step back for sure. Are they assuming Bama scores all the points? I don’t like LSU to score more than 14 and if I like the cover it goes without saying that the under will hit as well.
Thanks Seth. You bring up a good point that I should have included in my write-up and that is typically, favorites and the under are correlated (obviously sometimes more so than others). So in this case as you point out, if LSU covers than most likely the under is going to hit.
I think the total is a little higher than 41 because everyone has seen Alabama’s offense put up a lot of points against some mediocre defenses. LSU’s D is holding teams below their offensive season avg’s by almost 11 points and no one has scored their season average against them.
Alabama’s D is doing even better, holding teams to 18.05 ppg below their offensive season avg.
Just looks like points will be hard to come by in this game. I’ll say something like 23-16 or 20-17 either way.
Best of luck this week(end).
Wash and Cal total now 51.5. It sure looks to be the right side of this matchup to be under. I see you have this play valued at a little higher level than others? You Really like this one this best??
Doug, on PAPER this game stands little chance at going over. Unfortunately they’ve decided not to play the game on paper and instead they are going to play in Strawberry Canyon at Memorial Stadium (My attempt at humor).
But seriously, of all the things I look for in an under, this game qualifies in every category. I have one set of numbers saying 44 and another set suggesting a range of 31.5 to 50.5.
I have two sets of correlations that lean heavily towards the under. We have two of the (statistically) worst QBs in the PAC 12, neither team runs the ball particularly well, and Cal will be w/o their best offensive playmaker Kennan Allen (who would have easily been the best player on the field tonight).
Defensively neither team jumps out at you, Cal is allowing 28 ppg and UW is allowing 30 ppg. However we also have to take that into the context of who each team has played. Cal has played 5 teams that average over 30 ppg. They are actually allowing 28 ppg to teams that avg 31.14 ppg … so on average they are holding teams below their offensive season avg by a FG …. UW avg’s 16.14 ppg.
UW has also played 5 teams that avg 30 or more points per game, including the PAC 12’s top 2 offenses (OR & AZ). They are allowing 30.14 ppg, but that is against teams that avg 34.39 ppg. So on average their defense is actually allowing fewer PPG vs what their opponents avg than Cal is …..Cal only avg’s 22.75 ppg on offense.
The main point is that although neither of these defenses are statistically dominant, they are also not as “bad” as their stats suggest. Both D’s will be taking a major step down in the offensive firepower they’ll be facing tonight.
Plus the fact that the only offensive playmaker that would have been on the field tonight isn’t playing can only be a good thing. Cal now had to rely more on QB Zach Maynard w/o his favorite target to throw to against a Husky D that just held Oregon State to 17 points last week.
Of course with all that being said, there is always the chance that we get a game like Cal played last week against a weak Utah offense wherein the Utes barely had 300 yards of offense but produced 49 points (21 directly off turnovers or special teams and 4 short fields).
Nothing kills an under like ST’s or defensive scores and short fields. But I believe the “odds” of that not happening a second week in a row are in our favor.
Pez thanks so much for all your logic. Yes they do play these things on the field, shame but true.
So Under it is…..BOL to all.
Hope you held off on your play on Pitt…after their starting RB, LB and their best receiver were charged with assault today I can’t see the team allowing them to play Saturday.
Nope I made that play as soon as it went back to 17. I don’t think it’ll have much effect on the line or the game. Graham was/is good, but the frosh Rushel Shell is a stud.
Pez,
I’m looking at taking Miss St, but I’ve held out so far hoping that the line will go up to 7.5 eventually. Any chance that will happen, or should I just be happy with the +7?
Also, since I know what side you are on in the Neb-MSU game (haha), how do you feel about the under, 44.5?
OL, I don’t think it gets to 7.5 …. and/or if it does it happens right before kickoff. Earlier in the week I was waiting to see how the line would move hoping to also get +7.5, but then it went down to 6 / 6.5, so when it got back to +7 I took it.
Quick note. I am seeing Miss State +7 (-105) at BetOnline, so maybe it does get to 7.5.
My numbers and correlations say under, but my gut thinks it might go over. I can see both teams getting into the 20’s. But there is no way I would play an MSU game over (7 of 9 have gone under, 1 over and 1 push).
So my only consideration would be under. 45 is a key number, so at 44.5 I would wait for 45 or pass.
If you had to pick a side on Cal-Wash, what would it be? Washington usually bad on the road, but the public is all over them. However, the spread has held at Cal -4 for the most part.
If I had to I’d take UW +4. Mainly because I think it is going to be a low scoring game and these two teams look pretty even.
Statistically I have this one about dead even …. slight lean towards Cal offensively, but w/o their best player on the field tonight, that advantage is nullified.
Memorial Stadium is usually a good HFA, ASU hadn’t won there in years. But Cal has already lost 3 games there this year and the UCLA win was just a “bad” game from Hundley.
24-21 either way
Well sometimes it pays to be lucky too. Eight turnovers in the UW-Cal game, three in the RZ. And that doesn’t even include 3 more turnovers on downs.