SabertStxVii Week 10 College Football Picks
Been an unreal season so far, with an undefeated 7-0 week last week. I was just curious what my YTD numbers look like from last week of October to this past week, including last years bowls. From Week 8 on my YTD record is 94-50 (65%), + 88.5* units. Sustainability, albeit tough, is very good to have. Below are my Week 10 College Football Picks.
28 thoughts on “SabertStxVii Week 10 College Football Picks”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
Double check that Texas A&M play. They are 7 point favorites on the road, not dogs. Otherwise I also took Indiana and Ole Miss. I’m leaning LSU, but probably won’t pull the trigger.
What’s up Sabert. I hope you are enjoying your vacation. Liking Pitt myself this week, waiting to see if it goes back to 17.
Pez — agreed 17 is a better number that could come into play here, and it looks like it already went back there.
A lot of value plays for me this week, hopefully the book isn’t in for another tough week.
Thanks sabert! Drink a cold umbrella island cocktail for me
Thanks Mike– I’m on that request. Been crushing painkillers for way too long.
Pitt is one that absolutely jumped off the screen to me. When you hear announcers saying that “after this weekend, with the exception of Notre dame, we could see 3 of the unbeatens fall”…insane.
Like you, I don’t think Pitt will win, but they are certainly good enough to cover (public perception value).
LSU is strictly a value bet. 10 at home for a top 5 team.
I definitely think that ND has been overhyped by the media to this point and that has helped them a bit get to where they are, but it is somewhat deserved. I think Pitt has the ability to stay within the spread here, and there is quite a bit of value in it.
You are dead on about LSU. 10 points, rivalry game, home running dog. Saban may burn us though.
Saber do u have a lean in thursdays Vatech/Mia game?
thanks
Falc — put a bit of analysis in a comment to FA down a few from yours. Lean VT, but not a lot of conviction on that one. Could be a close game.
Thanks and best of luck.
so ,does this mean texas a & m is NOT A PLAY anymore?
Tom — apologies for any inconvenience. Obviously when I thought I saw them at +7 and saw some of the comments between Trentmoney and others on the Week 10 sides to consider page, iit was a play. At -7, I don’t think that it is a play. I do still think that Miss St. is overrated, but this could be a tight game.
Sabert,
I love all the plays except Indiana. Iowa’s main issue in getting owned lately is not being able to run the ball. Finally, against Indy they will run for 4 -8 yards a clip on 1st down. IMO Iowa will controll the clock on offense, set up play action, and make enough stops on defense to get a win. Congrats on your season so far and keep it rolling buddy!
Wes
Wes — you are definitely right on Iowa. They are a run heavy team. If they are picking up that much on 1st down, it may be a long day for Indiana. A few reasons on the contrary though while I still like Indy:
1. Iowa’s #1 RB Weisman, who helped them turn around their season, is doubtful for this game. Even if he does go, he is banged up. That hurts their running game.
2. Indiana can throw. I am a pretty big fan of taking teams that pass very well vs. one dimensional running teams. If those things you said about Iowa don’t happen, and they don’t set up the play action and pick up first downs, they are in BIG trouble here. They don’t have the ability to come back in a game.
BOL this week my friend. Thanks.
Hammer – Do you like any of the Thursday night games this week? I’m leaning Vtech tonight.
FA you animal.
Here is my opinion on the Thurs night game.
Both teams are coming off of a bye and a tough loss. Miami lost to FSU and VTech to Clemson. Both expected. Both teams are sitting at 4-4 and need this game to stay above .500 and get closer to bowl eligibility.
I have VTech as a 6 point favorite in this game, but the standard deviation between the performance you get from both of these teams is very high, and that is why it was not an official play. If both these teams come out and play the best game of the season, VT should win this one, and most likely cover.
VT should be a good team and what they have done this season is underachieve. Logan Thomas is a freaking joke and people were talking about him being a 1st rd QB draft pick and in competition with Barkley. Both of them have fallen IMO. VT has turned things around finally since they have established some sort of running game.
Miami on the other hand is young, and what we have seen is about what we have expected. Some moments of brilliance and 5 star recruits making big plays, but I saw some ridiculous stat that something like 40% of Miami’s roster is Frosh or RS Frosh. Thats tough.
I think they could stay in this game because it is a Thursday night game at home, but gun to my head here I take VT. Beamer is good on Natl TV and actually really good away from home.
Final Score
VT 38 Miami 34
Don’t forget that Thomas’s entire O Line are freshman. QB’s tend not to do well with an inexperienced offensive line who almost gets them killed every time they drops back. lol
lsu is at +8 for me now, should i lay off?
I don’t see value unless its at 9+. At 9 I’d play it for 1 unit, at 10, 1.5. This game is really just a value play. I think it could go either way, but the public loves Bama and the book needs to get the upper hand with this team I think.
LSU is underrated, but also one dimensional. We need Mettenberger to do something here to keep LSU D off the field. Off the bye, I think they’ll have a few packages of quick passes to get him in the game.
All — I will have a few more weekend plays coming later.
Thanks.
Any thoughts on Tulsa (+7.5)? I haven’t seen anyone talking about this game. I am leaning towards Tulsa in this one and actually think they have a chance to win outright. Any thoughts you guys have would be appreciated.
MM — you are right. I had this one circled to check out at beginning of the week and had a play on it, just needed to do the write-up. They could easily walk away from this game, but I actually think Arky is just a bit too good to give this one away. Tulsa should cover.
How bout Minnesota hosting Michigan.. gettin 12.5 when I could see them winning by a FG. Michigans offense seems to stay at home when they travel while Minnesota defends their place really well. The +12.5 is jumping out at me but I am super tempted to take ML +370. Thoughts?
Minnesota has struggled against Michigan recently (haven’t beat them since ’05) and they got killed 58-0 last year.
Minnesota has been good at home this year but they haven’t been tested there (biggest test an 8 pt loss to NW). I’d love to see Minnesota win (I’m an alum), but there are a ton of wild cards in this game that make this a tough game to play.
Phillip Nelson looked great against Purdue in the first half, but this will only be his 3rd start and he didn’t complete a pass in the second half vs Purdue. Minnesota is also awful against the run so if Denard is healthy, he should have a huge game.
Personally, I think there are too many unknowns for this to be a good play. There are better games out there.
All that being said, I made a small play on Minnesota but only cause I know I’ll be watching the game.
BOL
FYI on your Pitt/ ND bet. I do not know if any of these players will play or not. Good luck this weekend
https://www.post-gazette.com/stories/local/neighborhoods-city/3-pitt-football-players-charged-with-assault-660311/
Thanks for shifting me from Temple to Pitt last week.
And I should have paid closer attention on that So Fla Syracuse game, where I got beat right at the end.
Kudos on a great season. Keep up the good work