Who to bet on Week #10: Sides and Totals to consider
Ole Miss RB Jeff Scott
SEC Football - Ole Miss RB Jeff Scott
It’s hard to believe we are already entering the tenth week of the season. Conference play is starting to get down to some pivotal games, as some teams are now emerging from the pack. As we saw last week; injuries, depth, fatigue, and weather are starting to play more of a factor now than early in the season.
43 thoughts on “Who to bet on Week #10: Sides and Totals to consider”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
2* miss st +7
tx am getting too much respect on the road in sec imo…
I looked at that one too. Miss St will definitely be the toughest road environment A&M has played in all year. However, I thought A&M was getting too much respect on the road last week, but they definitely proved me wrong against Auburn. I understand Miss St is much better than Auburn on both sides of the ball; should be one to keep an eye on.
Line is out of whack…line should be miss st -3 when compared to common opponents the last few weeks
tx am has a 3pt win at miss and a 2pt win at la tech…performance at auburn is irrelevant imo
good luck
Everything about Auburn is irrelevant.
LOL!
Pez –
How confident are you that the LSU line will drop? I also think it will and am wondering if I should hop now.
Doc, I think it’ll fluctuate between 8 and 10. Can’t imagine it goes above 10, but you never know. I didn’t think OU would go above 10 last week either. Right now I am seeing 9, but from everything I am reading it seems everyone loves Bama.
A lot of familiarity between these two teams w/ a lot of great athletes on the field. Bama definitely with the offensive edge, but big HFA to Les and the Bengals.
Doc, I read this today at The Sporting News:
An overflow of early money came in on No. 1 Alabama at the Wynn on Sunday, creating what sports book director John Avello called a “ridiculous” line for the rematch of the BCS Championship Game.
Avello had contemplated opening the Crimson Tide at -6.5. He settled on -7 when he hung this week’s first point spread on the game at 3 p.m. PT Sunday.
By closing time at the Wynn, Alabama had grown to a 10-point favorite over the No. 5 team in the nation, on the road in one of college football’s most hostile environments.
“Ten? That’s just ridiculous,” said Avello. “The 10 is never going to hold up. It’s just a reaction to who the better team is. For a team of LSU’s caliber to get that many points at home … it’s ridiculous.”
Avello said he had received some LSU money and expects the spread to be bet back down during the week.
“I don’t know if it’ll get all the way back to seven, but it’s coming back,” he added.
Stay tuned.
Pez-
just a heads up…wazzu had 19 at the half against oregon, settling for 2 short fgs and missing a pat…so it wasn’t about oregon letting up in that game…although that was their best offensive performance of the year
Trent, you are correct. As I recall the Ducks were sluggish right out of the gate in that game.
Added UW/Cal U 52.5 …….. both offenses struggling. Cal D usually plays better at home (allowed 27 to ASU, 17 to UCLA & 21 to Stanford). UW D has not played well on the PAC 12 road allowing 52 & 52, but those were against the league’s top 2 offenses (OR & AZ).
One additional note, UW DC Justin Wilcox was LB coach at Cal before heading out to Boise and Knoxville to become a DC. So he has some familiarity with Tedford’s offense. I don’t know if that’ll help, just some food for thought.
Pez,
That Nebraska defense is mediocre this season, but they can be effective in some situational spots. They have trouble vs spread teams with speed. Michigan St doesn’t run the spread, and they don’t have playmakers with speed.
Michigan moved the ball on MSU for 5.1 yards per carry. Ohio State had 4.1 yards per carry. Both run shotgun, zone-read sets, similar to Nebraska. I think Nebraska can run it at around that 4-5 yard clip, which should be better than Michigan St’s ypc with their ground and pound set. Like I said before, Nebraska should be able to throw it better than Maxwell and that struggling pass O, especially since the Huskers defense ranks #1 in the country in opponent completion percentage.
Michigan State’s defense got lucky last week too when Wisky’s starter, Stave, left the game. Their backup, O’Brien, has been horrible all year, and he led the Badgers to just 25 total yards in the 2nd half.
The key will be turnovers. Neither team can afford to give up cheap points. Unders may be a stong play too.
OL, I usually don’t get too deep w/ match ups, unless they are just really extreme. I’m sure both coaching staffs know a lot more about the match up advantages and disadvantages than we’ll ever know.
Also, the drop off from Stave (a freshman w/ average numbers) to O’Brien was minimal. The drop off from the best running QB in the country to a back up w/ almost no playing time was extreme.
Anyhow, with all that being said, after running all my numbers I have this game almost dead even. Nebraska w/ the obvious advantage on offense, Sparty w/ the defensive edge.
I just prefer taking better defenses at home, especially when they are getting points …. or in this case a point. HA!
Also, in Maxwell’s first 4 games he had 3:4 TD:int ratio. In his 5 Big 10 games he has a 6:2 and Sparty has only lost 1 fumble. So their QB is getting better and they don’t turn the ball over.
Nebraska on the other hand turns the ball over nearly two and half times per game and that number gets slightly worse in Big 10 play.
And last but not least, Dantonio vs Pelini ….. advantage Sparty!
I understand that coaching staffs analyze matchups way beyond anything we see, and they address those weaknesses and strengths. However, you still have to consider how teams fare against offenses/defenses with similar playing styles.
For instance, UCLA ran all over Nebraska in week 2. You could then use that as an argument of why Ohio State would run all over Nebraska, because both teams run the ball out of the spread with similar styles. Now, it is less valid to use that argument this week with Michigan State, because the Spartans run an under-center, conventional power running game. It’s like comparing apples to oranges in my opinion. The Wisconsin matchup is the best indicator of how Nebraska will defend against MSU up front, because of their similar running style. It’s not like Nebraska has a disadvantage on the line of scrimmage, they aren’t getting blown off the ball in every game.
Most people just see that Nebraska overall this year has been bad against the run, and they think Bell and MSU are going to be able to run wild on them. That is where you have to look closer at matchups and playing styles to see how good NU’s chances are at stopping what MSU will try to establish.
Take this example, Indiana (who ranks #118 in rushing defense) only allowed MSU to run for 2.9 yards per carry. When that same Indiana defense played against the spread, zone-read running styles of Northwestern and Ohio State, they gave up 394 yards and 353 yards respectively. Now, should I expect Iowa to run for 300+ yards or something closer to the 2.9 yards per carry. Iowa has a similar conventional offense (struggling at the moment) to Michigan State, so I would lean more towards the 2.9 yards per carry, with Indiana having the potential to stop or slow them down at least, especially with their RB Weisman out. If I didn’t consider the matchups and playing styles, I would’ve saw that in general Iowa likes to run the ball and Indiana in general is bad against the run, leading me to believe that Iowa has a clear advantage in this category.
You make some great points that are certainly worth considering. However, the point I am trying to make about not “over analyzing match ups” is that there are so many more variables involved in the outcome of a game than just comparing how Nebraska did vs two zone read options team (UCLA, Ohio State) and one power run team (Wisconsin).
For example, I believe the Wisconsin game has absolutely zero significance as to how well Nebraska will do this week vs MSU.
First, I believe that Nebraska game was Stave’s first career start ……. a night game in Lincoln. Probably not the best place to make your first career start.
Second, as I recall Nebraska jumped out to a big early lead and Wisky was playing catch up the entire game. So they were taken out if their usual run game (which was struggling before they ever went to Lincoln) at a very early stage.
So with a freshman QB making the first start of his career in a hostile environment and with zero assistance from his teams vaunted running game, Nebraska still had to hang on for life and win the game on a defensive stand on the final drive of the game.
I’m just saying that the likely hood of all those “positives” happening for Nebraska in East Lansing this week against a better defense and an improving QB is unlikely.
That doesn’t mean they can’t win the game, it just looks to me like it will be a very difficult task.
Wisconsin actually jumped out to the early lead, as Nebraska pretty much gift-wrapped them two touchdowns off the bat. That brings me back to my original point that turnovers will likely decide this game. If Nebraska protects the ball, they will probably get the W. If they don’t, yeah, it will be much harder for them to make a comeback like they did vs Wisky.
I’m just saying Nebraska’s D is much better when they can load the box and play 3 linebackers on the field at the same time without worrying about speed mismatches. This has been the key to NU’s defense for the past two years, ever since they went away from the Peso-nickel package designed stop the pass-happy teams of the Big 12.
I understand there is much more to take into consideration when looking to make a play on this game, but I am only looking to address one issue with the points I am making about Nebraska’s D. It doesn’t mean they are a lock to win the game because of it, it just means that I don’t think MSU will run wild on them like convential wisdom may lead the public to believe.
Well I certainly am not expecting MSU to run wild as they really have not been able to do that all season against FBS foes. I’m just suggesting that Maxwell is improving (hopefully his receivers are too), Sparty has a better defense than Nebraska, Dantonio is a better coach than Pelini and because there are so many variables involved in a game I don’t over-emphasize match-ups.
Just seems to me that Sparty is the better team, has the better defense, the better coach and the HFA …. and they have a little revenge working in their favor.
With that combination how many points do I have to give?
First off, I think if we continue to reply to each others comments, we will be down to one word per row pretty soon, haha. So I am going to go ahead and make my closing arguments.
Nebraska has a better offense overall. They have a more efficient and effective passing attack that is capable of giving MSU problems. They also run the ball better, and have better WR’s, TE’s, and skill position players capable of breaking a long TD.
The Huskers defense is just as capable as MSU in stopping their opposition on Saturday (I’m not saying they are just as good overall as MSU’s D, but they have less weapons to hold in check given MSU’s O is worse than NU’s).
Both kickers are solid, and I would give a small edge to Nebraska in the return game based off the numbers.
NU has plenty of motivation too as they now control their own destiny in the legends division.
Something to keep in mind with the Bama/LSU game. Bama won last year’s mythical national championship game 21-0. But as improved as McCarron was throwing the ball over what he was at the beginning of that season when they lost to LSU, Bama still rushed for only 150 yards in the game. Well below their season average. And even though they won 21-0, 15 of their points were by 5 FG’s. They didn’t score a TD until 4 minutes left in the game. Basically in junk time when the game was already decided. Now I think we can all agree that LSU isn’t the same team they were last year. But I would lay odds that they have a radically different gameplan and do better on offense in this game than the 5 first downs and 92 yards they had in the title game. LSU’s defensive stats are still close to what they were last year. So i still think Bama will struggle to find the endzone. Especially with the game being played in the regular season at night in Baton Rouge with a week to prepare as opposed to a neutral site BCS game with 5 weeks for Saban to gameplan.
The play in the LSU/Alabama game is the UNDER 42.5 (I don’t expect that line to stay around long, I got mine as soon as it came out today).
I also think Mississippi State is overrated and it was proven last week against Alabama. Alabama was the first REAL team MSU played. Texas A&M’s QB will keep them in any ball game and I think the linesmakers know that another loss is coming in this game for MSU where the timing is not good following their 1st loss of the season.
Don’t understand your logic at all…Miss st is over rated because they lost to Alabama..?? really?? i can see if they were a big fav vs tenn and lost (they weren’t and they didn’t) or if they failed to cover as a big fav vs mtsu that they would be considered over rated…but losing at bama?? does that mean that 8 other teams are over rated??
and txam has played only 2 teams: uf and lsu, both at home, both losses…if you consider la tech a real team (they haven’t beaten anybody so i don’t) then txam is 0-3 ats vs “real” teams…yet they are favored on the road by a td…
And how can you even be considered overrated when you are a +7 home dog..?? the road fav who hasn’t beaten anybody is the over rated team, not the +7 dog…!! by definition how can you be considered “over rated” if your rating is that you’re not even good enough to win at home…??
and you mention the linesmakers know another loss is coming…what does that even mean? you do realize that you can lose and still make money when you’re getting +7…does the fact that the line has dropped to 6 mean that txam was over rated at -7…?? or that miss st is still over rated?
you can think miss st is bad…or that they will finish poorly…or that they won’t cover…but they certainly are NOT over rated if they are 7-1 and +7 at home to a team that’s 6-2…what should they be..?? +10…??? +14…???
Jackson State
Auburn
Troy
South Alabama
Kentucky
Tennessee
Middle Tennessee
Stop me whenever I mention a GOOD team that Mississippi State played and beat.
They were 24 point underdogs to Alabama as an undefeated team for a reason — the linesmakers knew they were overrated and not near as good as their record indicated. That is also the reason why once the game started, the cover was never really in doubt.
Most of the decent power rankings that I like to look at and use have Texas A&M winning by 9 to 10 points in this matchup.
Sometimes, Trent, it’s not about who you have beat, but how close did you play really good teams. Texas A&M was in both the games against Florida and LSU with chances to win. When was MSU ever close to Alabama?
Trent, I don’t think you are a dumbass, but I’m not one, either. It’s not ludicrous to have a team go 6-0, 7-0 or even 8-0 and still be overrated based upon the competition they played being light. Especially considering the competition they have left on the schedule. If you can’t admit that, then you are just not the capper I thought you were.
I think the line favors Texas A&M here. MSU has just lost their 1st game for the season and with it whatever hopes they probably had for a conference championship. You can expect some “letdown” Saturday. You can think what you want and play it however you want. If you end up being right, I’ll even come in here after the game and say, “yeah, you were right about that bet,” if it will make you feel better. I’ll even bring the cookies and milk to help you celebrate.
you didn’t just compare florida and lsu to alabama did you…??
you’re missing my point…i’m not saying miss st is a legit 7-1 team…that’s not the question here…i almost took bama -23 but i only play 3 score favs about once a year, and am about 10-3 over the past 15 years doing so, and already won my only one this year fsu -27.5 vs BC…i just don’t lay those pts on a consistent basis
but an illegitimate 7-1 team is over rated if they are -7/-3/pk vs another quality team
they are not OVER RATED being a +7 home dog…!! they are being rated to lose by a TD…how is that over rated?? again, what do you think the line should be…10? 14?
maybe if you just used the term “not that good” it wouldn’t have set me off…but using the term “over rated” just didn’t make sense to me when referring to a +7 home dog vs a team with a worse record
no cookies and milk
bring bourbon if you’re gonna come to my party
good luck
No comments on the Sooners this week? I think that loss will carry over to the Iowa St game. Iowa St does play very well at home and the Sooners are Always questionable in Big 12 road games.
LSU will be more than exposed this week as they cant compete with Alabana on offense, much less the D. Alabama D better than the Irish.
Why is the Oregon / USC line so low? Is being on the road that big of a factor?
Nick, being on the road is HUGE in college football. When the LVH future lines came out a few months ago USC was 2-3 point favorite. I’ve been telling GS since April/May that USC was getting too much love, but they still have a ton of talent, just not a lot of depth or a proven coach. I really don’t think the line is too low. I like Oregon at a TD or less, anything above that I’ll pass.
As I mentioned to OpeningLine in a comment above, I don’t place too much of my capping emphasis on “match ups” because that is what these coaching staffs are being paid millions of $ to exploit and/or minimize. Plus if team A can’t stop the run and Team B is a great running team, you think the people setting the odds (and everyone capping the game) can’t figure that out? However with all that being said, it is still difficult for me to “see” USC’s depleted, thin and inexperienced DL doing much to slow down Oregon’s running game. But that is Monte Kiffin’s job, not mine. LOL!
Haha, I see! Thanks, Pez!
Where did Shivers get those early lines for the Virgina and Texas Tech picks? he had +14 for Virgina and -2.5 for TT. My guy has 10.5 and 7. Somethig is fishy. Thanks
Bet Online I think. Those were the opening lines. TT line was REALLY early.
https://lineprojector.com/ncaaf-week-10/
2.5 was available for minutes, 14 was available for a few hours. Nothing fishy here, the betonline.com numbers come out around 430:440 every week and I was sitting there ready with my numbers right beside me. Almost dropped the laptop when I saw -2.5 for TTU. I immediately posted them on twitter and started a thread asap. I still like both plays at the current numbers, though only UVA for a 4-unit play.
The home Dog after and outright Dog win has been a pretty strong trend over the last decade. It has covered at about a 65% clip. The only teams that I’m seeing this week that qualifies is Michigan St. and Tulane. MSU won outright as a dog to Wisky last week. And now the public has bet this week’s game from PK to Michigan +1.5 as a home dog to Nebraska. Tulane is the other qualifier after upsetting UAB as +5 dogs last week and this week are +3.5 home dogs to Rice. Indiana came close, but didn’t quite make it. They knocked off Illinois as a 2 point road dog last week and the line opened at IU +1.5 this week. But has now been bet to IU -1.5. So unless we see a reversal, it looks like Sparty and Tulane will be our only qualifiers this week. Something else i should mention, the home dog is the sweet spot with this trend. But any dog after an outright dog win “in conference” has also had a winning trend record over the years. I haven’t looked at all of the teams who qualify under this trend this week. I know Ole Miss does after knocking off Arky last week.
Another strong trend I heard occurs when the line crosses 0, it is usually a sign to take the new favorite, as they cover at around a 70% rate. Nebraska and Indiana already qualify this week, and I’d have to look for others. Just something to think about, since we are talking about trends and such.
The Nebraska/MSU game is a tough one. I know MSU QB Maxwell is playing better. But it’s all been on the road where he’s hitting over 65% of his passes, and has thrown 7 TD passes to just 1 int. If he can do that at home, Sparty will be tough. I would think LeVeon Bell would have more success running against Nebraska since the Huskers are giving up nearly 200 ypg. If MSU can keep the chains moving like they did against Wisky, Martinez could have penty of bench time in this game.
It will be interesting to see if Sabert goes to the well again with Ole Miss. The influential CFN Scout has them winning outright by 3 so the +14 might be an endangered species.
took the bait…
2* usc +8
Whaaaaat. haha. GL!
hi trent
was wondering if you will have other plays other the usc and miss st
im your oldest follower 78 years young
thank you
tom
got:
miss st
usc
utah/wash st u49
good luck young fella
2* w va -3.5
2* wazz/utah u49
where is saber this week
He said he would be in the middle of the Carribean until the weekend and may not have any to post or smaller amount than normal.