Pezgordo’s Week # 9 College Football Picks
Pezgordo’s College Football Picks – YTD: 51-48 ATS
6-5 last week. I again went 5-5 on posted picks, but nailed the newsletter ML parlay pick, needing an absolute miracle finish out of Ohio State to preserve the win. I started Saturday out 5-0 and then faded hard with some questionable picks (Kansas & Southern Miss) and some bad luck (lost the UCF – Memphis total on 2 defensive TDs and a garbage TD w/ 39 seconds left in the game),
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20 thoughts on “Pezgordo’s Week # 9 College Football Picks”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
BOL as Alwats. Looks like a very nice card.
How many times did beating the closeing line come into play?
Thanks Doug. Good question on the number of times beating the closing line has come into play. I went back over my games and there were 6 instances where I would have lost had I not beat the closing line.
Considering I am 69-61 on the season (all games wagered, not just posted), that is close to 10% of my winners (it would actually be right at 10% If I deduct my 8 ML parlay wins).
Here are the games where beating the closing line paid off:
Indiana – UMASS U 51 (final score 45-6), line closed at 48.5 …. this was a push
Alabama – Arkansas U 54 (52-0), line closed at 49 … WIN
Vandy – UGA U 55 (48-3), line closed at 49.5 …. WIN
Colorado State +13 (19-31), line closed at 11.5 … WIN
Michigan – Purdue U 59 (44-13), line closed at 55 … WIN
Iowa State +7 (21-27, Line closed at 6 …. WIN
Of the 12 games where I did not get the better of the closing line, none of them had an effect on my wager.
if my math serves me correct iowa st covers a +6 closing line in a 26-21 game…
Trent, are you saying my math sucks? HA!!! Just kidding. You are correct, I wrote in the incorrect final score. It was 27-21 Kansas State over Iowa State
What exactly does it mean to beat the closing line?
Nick, the closing line is the final number available before kickoff. The objective is to beat this final number. The premise being that in an efficient marketplace if you are constantly beating this number than you are doing something right.
For example, if a game opens at -6 and closes at -9, it most likely means that someone and/or some influential group saw value at -6 all the way to -9, and no one with influence saw any value at +6, +7, +8 or +9.
So if you were on the -6 or -6.5 and the number closed at 9, you were on the “right” side or the same side as the guys who moved the line.
It doesn’t mean and/or guarantee you are going to win that particular wager, but in the long term you are more likely to win when you beat the closing line.
It’s also a way to gauge your perception of the market and of line value…if you had that game priced at 4 you would have jumped on +6, only to see your view of the marketplace proven wrong as it climbed to +9…time to adjust your power ratings and lines…if you had that game priced at over a TD or -10, then you jumped at -6 seeing that was a cheap price, and that the market would move in your favor…scalpers make a living at this with reduced juice outs, and trying to hit “middles”…but for the handicapper just playing straights, it increases your probability of winning (-6 instead of -9 and the game ends at 7 turns a loss into a win) and confirms that you’re ratings and ability to set lines are sharp
Trent brings up some more very good points, especially about gauging your perception of the market. You want the opinion of the marketplace to be in line with yours as often as possible.
Ohh, okay. Thanks so much guys. Is beating-the-closing-line is more an observation after the fact, rather than something you can monitor and jump on? I can see how checking up on how the line moves can be a valuable tool for evaluating models. When the Sportsbook sets their lines, are they always trying to set it as close to the actual outcome as they can predict or do they also create lines to capitalize on public opinion?
Nick, you can only monitor whether or not you have beaten the closing line after the fact (but you usually have a pretty good idea during the week if you are on the right side if the line movement).
However, to actually beat the closing line, it is usually something that has to happen beforehand during the week (unless of course the closing line ends up being the best line available).
I am sure in a perfect world the bookmakers would love to set a line that generated wagers 50/50 on each side, but that isn’t how it works. Therefore I believe the bookmaker is setting a line whereby they can take advantage of public opinion. I believe that is why a lot of “public” teams have inflated lines.
Thanks for the response. Looks like you guys agree on Ky Under
Geo + 7 and Aub + 15 this week so far. I like those plays with 2 of you are on them.
Pez, I really like Auburn +14.5 this week too. I think that is way too many points to be laying on the road. Auburn has to be able to contain Manziel though. They had trouble against scrambling QB’s Browning of ULM and Boyd of Clemson earlier in the year. Also, the way to move the ball on this A&M defense is by throwing on their young secondary. I’m not sure Auburn has a potent enough passing attack to establish drives throughout the game. Still, 14.5 is a lot of points for an A&M team that has been shaky on the road.
A few other things to consider. Neither Florida or LSU were able to pass the ball on A & M. Of course they both have solid run games and elite defenses, but the Auburn D is better than their stats would indicate at first glance.
They’re allowing 411 ypg, but that is against some pretty good offenses (teams that avg 417.30 ypg). And other than Ole Miss, a game that was 27-20 late before two big/freak plays inflated the final score, and Vandy (because they only avg a little over 13 ppg), Auburn has held every other opponent below their offensive season avg.
So I am not as concerned about the Auburn defense as I am about their offense. They are going to need to score some points in this game (at least 20+). The A & M D has played surprisingly well all season except for that La Tech game.
But bottom line, 14.5/15 points is just too many to give on the SEC road unless you are an elite team, and A & M is having a solid first year in the SEC, but I don’t think they are an elite team by any measure.
Pez, I also got OU/ND under 48 for a half a unit. That’s about as far as I want to play this game. Whenever Stoops plays a good rushing team, he likes to try to match and test them with a run of their own early in the game. So I suspect we’ll get a healthy dose of Williams in the first half to take some pressure off Landry Jones. BOL tomorrow.
That’s good if Stoopy tries to run the ball w/ ND. I don’t think OU will have too much success, the ND front seven is pretty salty. Who knows what will happen, but I see this as a 24-14 type of game …….. w/ OU winning …. maybe. HA!
Pez, I watch Stoops interviews and weekly show. And whenever OU plays a good rushing team that week, he always talks up OU’s ruhsing game and how imperative it is to be able to run the ball. If a team like WV or Texas Tech comes to town, I don’t hear a word about the run. He knows like we do how your chances go up in covering the spread if you can halfway match the other team’s rush numbers. What I’ll be looking forward to watching in that game is how successful the Sooners will be when they get in the red zone using the Belldozer. OU is one of the best red zone offenses in the country. And ND one of the best rush defenses in the red zone. Something’s got to give. But I have a feeling it’s going to lead to more FG’s than OU normally has. As long as OU wins the game, I’ll happily trade the 7’s for 3’s to get the under.
I count 10…
I couldn’t resist the last one (UCLA). It’s actually a few more because I was on your total tonight too.