Who to bet on Week # 8: Sides & Totals to consider
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12 thoughts on “Who to bet on Week # 8: Sides & Totals to consider”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
was looking to take vandy at -3 so i definitely see value on auburn at +7…but things haven’t been right on the plains for the past year so they are either a fade or a pass in my book…not putting any money on them until they turn that program over
I like UNLV +28 as I doubt boise state wins by 4 touchdowns and UNLV can score. I also like Stanford -2.5 at Cal.
Just got my plays up for this week and came over to see what you guys are on. I’m glad to see that we are on Arizona State and Tennessee together.
I am on North Texas +4 though. U-La-La has played a soft schedule this year, especially for a Sun Belt team, and I think North Texas has their best team in years. I see this game being close at home for UNT.
Great stuff from some well respected formites. The format is great, especially these early week considerations, top class.
I’m fairly green when it comes to College football but like all sports you want to be on a side that at least doesnt struggle to score and Northwestern, Notre Dame and Penn St all have shown a penchant for it this season.
From my point of view these are now teams to take on as the lines start to get ridiculous in light of their 15-4 ATS to date. Northwestern in particular seems ripe for the picking considering how overratted the coach is, I think he’s clueless.
Once again, great job and thank you.
I’ll push back against you in regards to Pat Fitzgerald being clueless…
NORTHWESTERN IS 6-1
I’m not saying he’s Bear Bryant…but it’s not like he has geno smith throwing to Justin Hunter and handing off to Marcus Lattimore…
I do agree with your other point in regards to those teams doing so well ats and not scoring a lot…although 2 of those 3 have tight spreads
good luck
Patrick, be careful of Oklahoma State this week. While they will likely get their QB back, there are a bunch more injuries including several of his WR targets. I also think Oklahoma State may be having to lay too many points here.
Also, you and I could look good against Baylor’s defense. They are simply horrendous. In fact, I think they easily have the worse defense in the Big 12. TCU’s new QB will have a much stouter test this week against Texas Tech. I don’t like the fact that Tech is coming off a big win this week going into TCU, but they have the better team and I think they should be focused considering they are renewing a game with an old rivalry here. I’m on Tech and the low number this week.
Denny, right now these are just leans. I’ve already found a few games that I’m liking a little better. Your right about Baylor’s defense. But if you feel that way about them, you’ve also got to feel the same way about WV. They are simply awful on defense, and KSU is going to eat their lunch on offense. Plus I think the REAL Heisman contender in that game will be Colin Klein. I think WV is in a little over their heads in the Big 12 in this first season. They barely beat Baylor, and even had problems against Maryland the game before. They beat a Texas team with another bad defense, but they still had to outscore them to get the win. If nothing else, I’ll probably bet the over in that game with two world class QB’s opposing each other. At least the other Big 12 newcomer TCU has some semblence of a defense. The most impressive stat in their game last week was probably the Frogs holding Baylor to just 432 yards. I admit the more I look at TCU/Tech the more it looks like a tossup. You’ve just got to be careful betting against a Gary Patterson coached team at home when your not getting any points…Even though it could potentially be a bounceback game for the Horns, I’m also tempted to play Baylor. They played a very shabby game against TCU committing 6 turnovers. If they can clean that up at all they should be able to give Texas a tussle.
Most of the numbers I look at point towards Iowa State, but I always respect GS when it comes to situational spots.
I have been telling anyone that would listen that I thought WV would struggle in the Big 12 this year. They struggled in the Big East last year and backed into the Big East Championship. Then they destroy Clemson in the Orange Bowl and everyone forgets how difficult it was for them to get there. They also suffered a lot of defensive attrition from last year (6 starters including 3 NFL draft picks). I think K-State goes into Morgantown and pounds them on the ground. Big defensive edge for K-State in this one.
Side with BS about TT – TCU. Defensive numbers are pretty close, but TT has a pretty substantial offense edge. Biggest concern would be TT’s mindset after blasting WV last week and as GS said, TCU won’t want to lose 2 in a row at home, so I would expect a good effort on their part. Still lean Red Raiders.
Yeah, I’m probably going to leave the TT/TCU game alone. The one thing where the numbers don’t tell us anything is the Patterson factor. He can literally overnight get his team to play well and gather a little momentum off a win. TCU looked like an absolute mess after that Iowa State game, and not many gave them a chance against Baylor. I’ve heard some pretty good things about that Boykin kid. He’s got a hell of an arm if TT gives him the time to throw. If nothing else, the Baylor game probably boosted his confidence quite a bit. I’ll probably just leave the game alone. TT could have a little mometum too coming off that big win..As for KSU/WV, with the game being played at night in primetime, I may just stick to the over with two heisman candidates trying to one-up each other. Regardless of what happens in this game, I think WV is really going to struggle when they go on the road in the Big 12. OSU will match them point for point. And Iowa State will grow their grass about 6 inches high and hit them in the mouth with defense. I also think they lose to OU at home.
GS, I think you are right, it will be a shootout in the KSU/WVU game this Saturday night. But, if it does, WVU will win in a shootout. K-State didn’t stop Oklahoma with their great defense, Oklahoma stopped themselves and the offensive coordinators didn’t put the best players on the field. As much as Bob Stoops wants to continue to blow that game off as a loss due to some untimely turnovers, I think the coaching staff is having hard time admitting they lost the game because of poor game scheming and personnel judgments. We saw how good Oklahoma can be whenever they have the right RBs in and they are not trying to hide defensive schemes because Texas is down the road (that came out this last week).
Fact is, WVU is the best offense K-State has seen this season. Yes, WVU is learning about the “ups and downs” of playing in a good conference. But, I believe in “rebound” spots in football and this game is it being played at home. I’m not sure K-State floundered last week because it was a bad spot. I think Iowa State is a good team whenever they play at home and they get underrated.
I know one thing, if K-State wins this weekend on the road at WVU, then they are the real deal and I am not sure anyone will stop them this season. Call it a gut-feeling, but I think K-State loses this one this weekend. I do have bouts with gas from time to time though.
I think I’m going to fire on the WVU/KSU and not really think about it. There is no way on earth WVU can stop KSU on offense. The only thing that gives me a little pause is spread based concept teams always seem to struggle in the RZ to score TDs, with a total above 70, a couple FGs can sink you. KSU is a little unlucky to be going to Morgantown for a night game, that place will be insane.
I don’t know what to make of this SMU/Houston line. It just looks like a big old fat trap. I do think that SMU has the superior D and might have the better run numbers, but they’ll have zero homefield advantage and Houston seems to be clicking on offense. Houston should’ve dropped 50+ on UAB last week, they had to settle for 6 FGs.
Kansas State is a ball control team, but they aren’t afraid to get in shootouts with these spread teams and high powered offenses. Just look at last year against OSU 52-45, Texas A&M 53-50, Texas Tech 41-34. And with their added WR’s on offense I think KSU’s offense is even more potent to where they can trade points with anybody. The other side of the coin on this play is in many of these forums I’ve seen everybody on the over in this game. Not one under. The total has gone from 71 to 73. If you look at KSU’s stats so far this season, the two high powered offenses they have faced have been held under their offensive average. They held a Miami team who averages 440 ypg on offense to 262 yards. And they held an OU team who averages 467 ypg to 386 yards in Norman. So even the total scares me a little.