SabertStxVii Week 8 College Football Picks
Keep on grinding out solid weeks. Ended up going 5-2, +4 units. Little upset about some money management but overall, have no reason to complain about how I’m doing halfway through the season. Below are my Week 8 College Football Picks. If you don’t see a game you’re interested in, please leave a comment and I will give you my thoughts.
- Previous TSE College Football Picks – Week # 7 Summary
- Next Who to bet on Week # 8: Sides & Totals to consider
33 thoughts on “SabertStxVii Week 8 College Football Picks”
Leave a Reply to marv martin Cancel reply
MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
Congrats, another awesome week.
I was just looking at the ULL game. I feel like the line should have been a little higher. Maybe NTexas being at home, playing a tougher schedule, keeps this under a td?
Any thoughts on Oregon -9 and Georgia -28? Thanks.
Lonnie,
Wanted to wait to respond till I got my post on tonights game up there. That is my play, obviously for a small amount. You are right on about your analysis.
I think with ASU and Oregon opening in double digits, the only play for you, unless it gets back up there, is Oregon and at 9, there is some value in taking it under 10, but I think you can wait til later in the week. The line should hover around here. Few things too keep in mind about this game. Oregon should win I think, and probably by a decent amount. With that being said, they are travelling on the road, with a frosh QB, etc. against a hungry ASU team. I think if Oregon doesn’t give ASU chances, they take this one probably by double digits. This is not a game that Oregon will call off the dogs. Pounding good opponents is good for them, specially after getting ranked 3rd in BCS, every point matters. Will be a no play for me.
Like Georgia at -28 as I think it ends up like 42-7, but what is tough about that line is a trash backdoor or flukey TD blows the cover. Also, this can be an overreaction to last weeks game. UGA should come out of the gates strong off the bye after getting trounced by the Cocks but just a very touchy line. UK is in a world of hurt,so can’t see them doing much at all here though. Think there are other better plays on the board, but don’t dislike this one.
Another great week Sabert. I especially liked that Texas A & M jinx. LOL! Just kidding. La Tech didn’t know they were beat. Unreal finish.
Pez — never again will I tweet about a game before its over, especially a team that I’ve been betting on for the past year because their offense is so high tempo. Rookie move!
BOL as Always. After Tenn gave up a last seond TD well i should say 9 seconds last saturday, i may Neva wanna hear Rockytop again….Tenn is goind to give alot of points here, wheather they can muster a couple TD’s i surely dont know.
LOVE your Auburn selection.
Doug,
tough beat on UT huh. They definitely booched that game away. I am on them again this week, as the must win is even more pressure. The good thing about last week is if you bet with my unit money mgmt system, we knew wed be up even with that loss. Agree Tenn gives up points, but I think Bama O slightly overrated if you clog the box and make them throw. Think they can score 21ish.
Thanks on Auburn — they are a firestorm but no reason at all to be a TD underdog to Vandy!
Goodluck my friend. Write-ups to come soon.
Hello Saber, just found out about this site and it’s great. Can I ask you a question?
When you posted your early picks on Monday and their units are those the games you played early or were those just opinions. I only ask because Monday you had Lafayette at 1 1/2 units but today at only 1 unit. Are your final plays just the ones you are playing?
Thank You
Tony
Tony — thanks for stopping by, glad you like it.
Good question, I should have been more clear. The plays I posted are plays I got on early in the week, but once I do the write up, I will post what I will play it at. A majority of the time, they will stay the same, and possibly even increase in value. Very rarely, do I completely buy back a play (lots of reasons for this: go with my instinct, line moves out of favor to buy back, etc.). Sometimes though, I will buy back some and/or buy more of a play. I will post a loss if I incur one, or a different line if I buy something at a different line.
For example, Week 6 I got Ole Miss at +11 and +13.
My advice, unless I highly suggest otherwise, is just wait til the write up. IF there is a specific game you like, comment in my thread and I will get an email and answer it. Check on weeknights probably at 6pm before games and I will have a write up if I’m on it, and my weekend plays will be up Thursday and Friday.
I am just trying appeal to the majority of readers. In the past, I have been asked to post plays earlier due to people being busier later in the week, having restrictions of when they can put in plays, etc.
Let me know if you have any more questions.
great season so far. keep up the good work.
i don’t bet until game days so no questions at this point.
Thanks alot Marv. Goodluck this weekend.
What are you guys thoughts on the LSU and GA Tech games? I can see a somewhat let down spot for LSU, despite playing against A&M and I see a solid bounce back effort from Tech, in believing they are much better than the pitiful effort put forward against MTSU last time out. I have been on the fade BC train all year, which has been solid, and see a Tech effort covering and winning by at least 17-21. I see A&M as a solid team, but the way LSU manhandled USC last week showed the legitimate strengths of their team, and I see this game as a once a for all “Welcome to the SEC” game for A&M.
TS — thanks for the comment.
For the LSU A&M game, I am still analyzing this one. I think it is a shootout that comes down to the end. I think Manziel is slowed down, but not totally stopped. When we look at LSU we can’t look back one week or two weeks, gotta take the whole season into account. My stats have LSU winning this game, but my correlation Matrix have A&M winning. I think it comes down to the last 5 minutes with A&M and Manziel driving down the field for the win, possibly by a FG. We have to remember he is a freshman, and yes he hasn’t turned it over much, but he’s only seen one defense comparable to LSU, and that is Florida. I see LSU stopping Manziel similar to how they slowed Driskel. I think my play is A&M or nothing as I don’t see LSU winning by a TD.
Tech game is interesting. Fading BC has been profitable, but GT is in a terrible spot. They have no defense at all. I think Rettig is decent and they’ve averaged 24 PPG. Thy will probably score more than their average against this bad D, meaning that GT needs to get near the 40s. May be tough as GT offense eats up clock.
Best of luck.
Tennessee will need to try and establish some sort of running game against the Tide, even if they have to pass to set up the run. The Vols ran over 200 yards, averaging 6.2ypc against Mississippi State last week, and that really helped keep them in the game. Otherwise, if the Vols are unable to get anything going on the ground, Alabama’s defensive ends will “tee off” on Bray. Tennessee’s O-Line has been solid, giving up only three sacks all year, but they haven’t seen a pass rush like the one Alabama will give them on Saturday.
You’re absolutely right here. I think with Bray and the WR being as good as they are, Bama won’t be able to load up the box as much as they would like (hence why the Tenn run game has been so solid this year). I think whoever is playing at RB, they need to pick up some good yards when they can.
What I’m worried about most is Tenn and Bray forcing things and causing turnovers. This is what Bama feeds on, is short fields. Here is a breakdown of how many TD drives they’ve gotten from each distance:
80+=3, 60-79=9, 40-59=6, 20-39=4, 0-19=5.
The fact that they’ve started 5 TD drives from inside the 20 yard line is terrible, and 14 have started inside the 50! Pretty crazy numbers, so pinning Bama deep is not a bad move here. Hopefully Tennessee does that.
Exactly. I am leaning Tennessee +21 also, but Bray’s tendency to throw into tight windows is a huge concern. He’s gotten a little bit better this year, but as we saw last week, he still tries to press it when he should probably just check down.
Also, like you said, that Tennessee run defense is a huge question mark. They are giving up just shy of 200 rushing yards per game. I remember watching the Georgia-Tennessee game, and the Vols got absolutely steamrolled on some of those long touchdown runs. Luckily they were able to get some turnovers and keep up enough offensive production to stay in the game, but they can’t let that happen against Alabama.
I agree. They CANNOT give up big plays to Bama, on offense or defense. You have to limit the turnovers, and do not allow Bama to have big plays. Bama struggles as we know to have long drives TDs — alot of long drives end up in FGs. Bama will punish them here for mistakes like that. Hopefully playing at home, some of these things become easier to handle than on the road.
Two games:
1) I think LSU stops manziel and is able to score enough to cover -3 1/2 on the road. Please talk me out of making this a rather large play.
2) Why is no one talking about this game??!! I see SC limping into the Swamp with feelings hurt and not being able to bounce right back. UF is on a mission now and can start to taste it (like LSU was LY)and should cover the 3 at home easier than LSU did last week. Their 2H D is awesome. Please share thoughts but most of all thanks a ton for sharing your winning plays!!
GL to us this W/E
Doogie whats up man, no problem at all thanks for following.
1. I think LSU stops Manziel similar to how they slowed down Driskel. Manziel is better than Driskel though. LSU will have to win this game on the ground, similar to how Florida beat A&M. I think this game comes down to the wire, but I have LSU winning by stats, and A&M winning by my correlation stats. My bet is this game comes down to last 5 minutes with Johnny a chance to drive down the field to win. Think in a toss up game, always better to find value elsewhere.
2. No idea why no one is talking about it. Probably because there are a few other big SEC games and this is a tough one to read. Agreed that Florida is one of the best 2h teams at adjusting i’ve seen this year. This line is basically saying that these teams are rather even, with the homefield giving Florida the edge. Florida survived a tough spot last week going to Vandy (and covering) but coming home this should be a huge game. Here are my issues: SC has a better offense, Florida has a better defense. SC offense should struggle here to score more than 20, if Florida can contain them on special teams that is. If Lattimore isn’t playing, thats another blow to SC. On the contrary, Florida struggles on offense. Gillislee is awesome, but he could get beat up here against this aggressive SC DL.
Both games I could see a FG either way but if I play one, I take Florida for motivation reasons and I think they win by 6ish.
Goodluck this weekend!
Congrats on a great season so far, and love your card this week. I see value in everyone of those picks, but I especially like the dogs between 3 & 7pts. I’m playing 2 of them on the ML. Was going to unload on La Monroe because the line is backwards, but then I did some digging and W. Ken is 15-0 ATS in the last 15 and 16-1 since the start of 2011. Pretty difficult to put up a sizeable amount against that trend.
This leads me to a couple questions…How much stock do you put into situational trends in your capping? I have a tough time leaning with the historic trends and angles, and at times I think touts especially lean on some of them much too heavily when they seemingly have little relevance to the current teams on the field. I put a lot more stock in trends based on there relevance. How do you decide when trends are important to the outcome of a game?
Thanks TReid, i’ve been happy with how things have gone so far obviously!
I think the dogs have some value in a lot of different spots, but I always struggle with the ML. I think I will end up playing the Auburn one for a sprinkle, but need to analyze value once it comes out.
Great question with regard to capping. I tout (not literally) myself as a situation capper. With that being said, I like to think I adapt as the season goes on to different situations. The way I operate my plays is I have a model based off of lots of things, but primarily yards, to compare Team A vs Team B and predict a final score. I also have a correlation matrix that compares stats that I have found contribute to winning and scoring for Team A and Team B.
With that being said, the stats are always the basis of my play, but I adjust for things up or down depending. I am NOT a big believer in historical trends at all. My primary job is within Finance industry and I am a big believer that past performance is not indicative of future results. There are so many variables with football that I do not see trends being overly useful. I think it is very easy for someone to see a trend and then put way to much weight into it. I also think its very useful to find a trend that relates to anything (Ex: Notre Dame, playing outside, with a black QB and a white head coach, on the 3rd Saturday of the month, are undefeated against the spread). Do we think the book takes into account shit like that? Probably not, so I don’t like to think about it.
So instead of playing trends, I play situations. I do this by trying to put myself in the shoes of football players. For example, do players get stuck looking ahead to the next game? Rarely. Players are prepared for the week ahead, they go out, they are motivated and Do coaches? Yes. They bench players early to not get injured, they don’t show their full playbook, etc. I adjust for that.
Early in the year, I play the returning starters, new coaches, new players, situations a lot. Depending on how much of the previous season team is in tact, I look at the stats and adjust accordingly. Later in the year, I believe the books are starting to get the lines much more accurate, so I play situations and motivations way more. For example, you will see my playing the “super bowl” trend. I look at travel schedules, similar opponents, match-ups, bowl implications, and off field situations to adjust scores that my stats predict.
Sorry for rambling, feel free to ask follow-up questions if you’d like. Thanks for the question and goodluck this weekend!
Thanks for detailed reply. I believe we are all in it together against the books, so any helpful information just sharpens the knife a little more and is much appreciated. Great site you guys have put together and it is a nice resource for information to flow back an forth.
I typically only make 1-2 ML plays/week, and only if I feel the wrong team is favored from 3.5 – 7 pts. I play the side as well, and it has been profitable up to this point. If Auburn can avoid T/O, they will win outright. Everything about the LA-Mon/WKY game screams LA-Mon, but the 15-0 ATS streak is impressive for WKY.
GL this week and thanks for the information!
Think thats a very smart play to make. There are always upsets in college football and a lot of times the book doesn’t see them coming either. Just gotta pick your spots. I urge you to check out this forum; we always go through a “Live Dogs” thread each week: https://www.beyondthebets.com/forum/thread-cfb-wk-8-live-dogs
Also, OpeningLine wrote a great post this week, and has an awesome trend in there about double digit home dogs: https://dailysportsedge.com/5397/betting-on-college-football-week-8-quick-hitters/
Best of luck!
I have a question unrelated to this week’s games. I wasn’t sure how to reach you, so sorry to put this in your weekly column. And sorry if this is a noob kind of question.
Reverse line movement and the term sharps. I always read about this, It seems whenever a team is favored, for example, -9 and it gets bet down to -7, the day of the game, or hours before, people always say the sharps are on it. How do we know that? People always seem to get really worried regarding this. Oregon tonight has moved from -10 to as low as -7, and it fluctuated all day today. Are the so called sharps pounding ASU? Do they already have ASU at -10 and looking for a middle?
Also, when a large portion of the public are on a team and the line moves the other way, what is the reason for this? Does this ever play into one’s handicapping?
Thanks for your time. Good luck this week.
Lonnie — no problem at all. If you ever have a question feel free to just ask on here, I don’t mind. Also, no question is a noob question; its probably a question we’ve all either asked or wondered about at some point. I would first reccommend reading this article from Todd Fuhrman who worked at Ceasars for a number of years and now works at Don Best: https://www.toddstake.com/2012/09/21/sharp-vs-square-deconstructed/
In this day and age, information can be found so efficiently, so the term sharp has become more loosely defined. Anyone can be a sharp with the access we have for information. But there are certainly people out there that work in syndicates, get inside information, or just have a better analysis of games.
Sharps are mysterious. In some situations, exactly what you said will happen. The Sharps will unload on a line at a certain spot all at once, possibly like what happened tonight. In some situations, Sharps will bet lets so 100 on a game to move the line down a point, then unload 10,000 on the other side, where they really wanted the line. Its very, very tough to tell. Pregame.com has a sportsbook spy, but I sometime question the accuratenes, and its tough to tell if its Sharp-Money ( https://pregame.com/sportsbook_spy/default.aspx ).
When I handicap, I always try and put myself in the shoes of the book first, knowing they always end up winning overall. Why did they set the line where it is? What side is the public side that they “want” people to bet on? This will help you determine which side is public. Now, with that being said, the public side these days is not bad.
To be honest, I do look at it sometimes, but it will never change my play. I get nervous sometimes when “everyone” is on the same side of me, but you should just trust your abilities before you change plays because of Sharp v Public money. The Sharps lose alot too and aren’t always right.
What’s your read on the Clemson-VaTech game? I’m confused as the why the line is only -8. VaTech is pretty weak this year, with an overrated qb, young receiving core and average defense. Plus they’ve struggled on the road this year. Clemson on the other hand has one of the more explosive offenses in the country. Is there any way VaTech stays in this game?
Really weird spot here Spartan. VaTech is weak this year, but this line is only -8 is because VaTech has vastly underperformed what they are supposed to do. Going on the road vs Clemson, I like Clemson here, but I’m not going to play it for a few reasons.
Va Tech was down 20 last week to a weak Duke defense, and came back and crushed them. That is scary, because Clemson’s D is not that great either. Also, that could be the momentum they need to get things rolling here. Beamer is good on the road historically.
When I break it down, I could see VaTech scoring 10, or surprising Clemson. Tough for me to call either way, but I lean Clemson giving just over a TD at home, but wouldn’t be surprised if this doesn’t hit.
Any reason you know of or can think of as to why Rutgers has gone down to -4?
Would really like to play them, but I am concerned they don’t score enough points to cover.
No idea why they have dropped honestly. I think their offense can get it done. Nova has played well, they have good WR, and a stud RB. I think Temple struggles to move the ball in this one and I think Rutgers does actually get a few scores here.
Throw out Temple’s game against a FCS opponent and they’re averaging 23 points a game. Now they’re going up against the best rushing D in the nation, and a bunch of freaks in general on defense. I just don’t see how they get going in this one as long as Rutgers protects the ball, which they generally have been doing.
Following you for weeks, and you are amazing…keep rockin…
Any thoughts on tonight’s game? I love ‘Cuse at -4 in their home dome…should I chance the wager?
Thanks alot, glad you’ve been following; hope the success continues.
This is such a weird game to me. Cuse is continuing to be favored and I don’t really get it. Both of these teams really struggle to score. One would think that Syracuse would play better in the dome but they are only averaging 27 there, and they are playing a better defense here than what they have seen at home.
UConn on the contary sucks on offense too. They just really can’t get it done. Syracuse is not a terrible on the defensive side of the ball, and at home for a Natl V game, I can see them getting some extra motivation for this game.
I don’t normally suggest this, but my only play would probably be the under, but I hate total bets so take that for what its worth. I see like a 20-10 type of ugly game. But…with Nassib at QB, turnovers could easily change things here.
I’m staying off it. Big day tomorrow.
Another great week. Thanks for all your work.