SabertStxVii Week 7 College Football Picks
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
Saber, excellent so far. Great work. At what number would you play Miss up to? I also got Alabama when it came out at -18 and Florida at -7.
Thoughts on SMU @ Tulane?
Thanks
Lonnie,
Thanks – am on a good run this year, important to stay patient and continue to pick the spots. I see value in playing Ole Miss up to 7. If its at 6 or 6.5 I think I’ll be hovering around 1.5/2 units (I may upgrade the play down the road I’m guessing). If it gets to 7, I play it for 1 unit. If the Rebs win, I see it at about a 35% chance they win by more than 7. If it dips below 6 again, I will definitely add to the play for my post. Keep in mind, I got this at 2.5, so what I am posting is just where I see value from here on out.
Great snag on Bama and Florida at 18 and 7. I got Bama at 17.5 and Florida at 8.5 I believe. I got Bama for 2.5 units at 17.5 which I thought was tons of value. I just don’t see Mizzou scoring more than 10 or 14 without James Franklin especially, coming off a tough loss. Bama should smoke them. I don’t see value laying over 3 TDs on the road though.
With regards to SMU and Temple, I may be finally jumping off the fade Temple train. Temple has been put in a tough spot on defense because of how poorly the O is playing. The O can’t pick up 1st downs/has terrible 3rd down conversion percentage. The D has been on the field way too long and they have been exposed. I am not saying they are good, but what I am saying is if Ryan Griffin plays and is healthy, he can possibly get them a few scores. It may not be worth it for me to lay points on SMU, a team that struggles on O themselves against not the best teams. Tulane could be trying to get the first win, with a QB that has played for 4 years, at home.
Also, just curious, how many units are you playing Bama?
Hey Sabert,
I’m a beginning capper as of this season, and I’ve been following The Saturday Edge and the newsletter tips, and they’ve been very educational. In your post you mentioned your capping style. I was wondering what is the capping style you use?
Thanks!
Nick — thanks for commenting and I’m glad you have found things helpful, that is one of our goals.
I use a baseline system in CFB as the first step in developing my plays. In football, to achieve success, everything is based off of yards. To score you need first downs, to get first downs, you need to pick up yards. To stop a team from beating you, you need to stop them from scoring, and to do that, you need to limit their yards (or cause turnovers). The amount you score FGs and TDs is based off of how many yards you pick up. A lot of things play into these factors of course.
What I do is compare lots of team stats of Team A’s offense (by yards) vs. Team B’s defense (by yards). For example, rush yards per TD, pass yards per TD, RY/1stD, PY/1stD…stats such as this. This gives me an average of what Team A’s offense would do if the game played out 100% statistically (to my stats of course). From there, I make adjustments up or down for certain factors. I have ran correlation analysis over the past 5 years on all 120 teams as to what statistical categories effects a team winning and scoring points. If a team is significantly better in one category, I adjust them up a certain percentage, depending on how big the discrepancy is.
What I ultimately do is predict a score. I backtest that score. Basically I attest to the best and worst case scenario with each team, and get multiple score outputs. From there, I determine my spread, and adjust accordingly. What I adjust by are soft factors that are extremely tough to put a value too, and I think this is where the human opinion comes into it.
What you will notice if you read much or any of what I write is I play on a unit system. There are many people that will say that there is no value in this and flat betting is the way to deliver you the most alpha. Both opinions have tons of warrant, but I’ve been successful on the unit system for years. Currently I am 30-14 +35 units on the year. If I was flat betting, I would be only up 16 units. My hit % gets much better as my unit size rises as well.
My primary career is in wealth management. What makes investing in Apple different than Google? I read their 10-k’s (stats), listen to the Exec Team speak (coaches), hear from people that work there (players), and finally, I try to decipher if the market has under- or over- valued the company. If I feel much more conviction about the future for Apple versus Google, without getting too deep in finance, I would allocate more money towards Apple than Google; its common sense. It is ridiculous how close (the math behind) allocating a portfolio and breaking a company down parallels a football game. The same carries true for my handicapping. I have certain factors that will add or subtract unit value from a play. These are things that I have found to be important, or factors/trends I like to bet on.
A unit for me is typically about 1% of my bankroll. The most I will play on any single game is 5 units, and that is if all the stars aligned per se. This helps to limit my loss in any one game. I never unload on certain games, or have “GAMES OF THE YEAR”, which I think helps manage my bankroll. Even plays I absolutely love, I limit the maximum size I will bet. I have had one 4.5* game this season, Ole Miss -17.5 vs Tulane. The only thing I didn’t like about Ole Miss was: they weren’t home, and Tulane was playing a new QB, where you never know if a player given their first opportunity makes the most of it.
Overall, I have a list of things that help me decide unit value (homefield, motivation, coaching, stats, etc.). It has been successful for me since I’ve really started handicapping CFB so I will stick with it until I feel like I am using value with this strategy. Let me know if you have more questions along the way as you get deeper in the process, I’d be glad to give my advice if needed.
Hey Sabert,
Thank you for the detailed reply. And congratulations on your success so far! Sorry for the delayed response. I wasn’t sure where to follow up so I’m just going to go ahead and put it here. It was interesting to hear capping compared to financial analysis especially since, although I don’t know anything about it, am really interested in it. I also like the more analytical approach to capping. I’m really interested to hear some more detailed explanations of how to go about creating a statistical outcome of the game like you do with yards. Well, interested in the rest of what you said too, but basics first, I guess. If at all possible, could you point me to where I could find some info on that or if you ever have some free time help me understand how to do it? I was thinking I could practice on some old stats and see how it turns out with respect to the actual final scores.
Thanks again
Sabert, awesome info. I really enjoyed reading it. As an advocate of (more or less) “flat” betting, I would like to point out that my typical wager unit is 2% of my bankroll. Therefore, if you had been wagering 2% per game instead of 1% to 5% you would still be up about 32 units on the year. So not a big difference.
On the other hand as we have discussed, I will increase my wagers another 1/2 unit (1%) if the lines moves in my favor as it did this past weekend w/ Ole Miss for example, or for whatever reason I feel more confident than usual in a side or total.
Now with that being said, your unit system is obviously working for you and that is the most important thing. I also understand your “philosophy” about larger wagers for games/stocks that “appear” to have a larger edge.
But since we can only approximate what that edge is, I tend to keep my wagers closer to the 2% unit with less variation.
In the end I guess our “units” vs “flat” betting strategies aren’t really that different, except with the overall variation we are both willing to take.
Loved the info,
Pez
Impressive record. You see value in Stanford getting 8?
Bobby,
Thanks for the comment/compliment. Been a good season so far and hoping to keep things rolling.
What we have here is 2 good defenses vs 2 subpar offenses.
Unfortunately, I just don’t see much value on Stanford here. Their one player that I liked with the ability to stretch the field will not be playing. I have not been overly impressed with Nunes. Of course we saw how he fared in his first ever hostile road game. If he thought that was hostile in Washington, this is going to be absurd. Gameday is in South Bend, the players are jacked, and this will be the best defense Stanford has faced.
With that being said, the weakness to ND is their secondary. If you think Stanford can get in the 20s here, then this line has value. While both defenses are good, I think ND is better. ND D has not faced a strong offensive opponent in my mind, so I that is part of the reason why I don’t see value on them either here. I do see them getting scores here. Expecting like a 27-17 final with alot of standard deviation on both teams, so not much value from my standpoint.
What’s your read on the AZst-Colorado game?
Saber,
Appreciate your input.
Good luck on your plays.
Just off the top of your head… do you like any of these dogs to win SU.
Texas
Mia Fla
Maryland
Minnesota
Temple
Oregon St
Utah St
congrats on a good season so far and thanks in advance
I think Maryland can win straight up, although Sims at QB for another week he may be figuring it out.
OSU should have a chance to win straight up. Neither team can score, and BYU QB Nelson is banged up. One hard hit and their to their 3rd stringer.
Minnesota can. Revenge game after getting smacked at Iowa. It’s their homecoming.
In oder:
OSU or Maryland
Minny
Miami
USU
Goodluck!
thanks for the comments.. i played texas and oregon st moneyline.
Saber-
I’m ready to outfit my family in Ole Miss gear thanks to your guidance, and I’m a Florida alum! Keep the wisdom coming my friend.
D
Saber, wound up playing all 7 of them, went 4-3 and added your 2 for tonight… SCar and Tenn both ML..