SabertStxVii Week 5 College Football Picks

Georgia's Brandon Boykin (2) gets past Tennessee's Chad Cunningham (96) in route to a 100-yard kickoff return during the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, October 10, 2009 in Knoxville, Tenn. (AP Photo/AthensBanner Herald,David Manning)

As the season progresses, the capping style starts to change as stats become more predictive. With this, there are also more situational spots as well where the stats can be completely thrown out. This is a tough week because it is right there in the middle. I definitely have some college football picks I like though. Think I will play more plays this week, but for a smaller amount.

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12 thoughts on “SabertStxVii Week 5 College Football Picks”

  1. Kevin says:

    um . . . Florida State plays USF not UCF; c’mon son. You’re better than that.

  2. jimmyshviers says:

    Really like USF to go under the TT this weekend, the idea of the ever erratic BJD going against that swarming FSU defense just feels like money to me. Only hesitation right now is that it isn’t a very good spot for FSU..

  3. kevin says:

    Love the Ole Miss play, can’t find any sites in Europe that have it though! 🙁

  4. Snow says:

    Thanks for the picks. I don’t think I even glanced at the team total as a possible play for ole miss, but I like it. I got it at 12.5 though.

    Someone else put me on La Tech last week just prior to gametime. Because of that I actually ended up streaming their game. Liked what I saw. I hit their TT which they doubled. Kind of spoiled that number for this week, but do you think it’s still playable at ~30?

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      Snow, thanks for stopping by. Sorry i didn’t get back to this over the weekend — was travelling.

      Glad the total hit for us for Ole Miss. I know the team really well so I always seem to have some sort of play on them.

      I’ve been on La Tech since mid year last year. The team is well coached, and has great leadership.

      Hope you hit their team total as well as the spread! Will be interested to see what their team total is this week against a bad defense UNLV team.

      • Snow says:

        Yep. Hit the total as well. I’m not sure I’m going to mess with the spread on them this week unless it gets below 3 TDs, but will probably sprinkle a little something on their total if it’s under 40, which shouldn’t be a problem against UNLV.

        Thanks again for that ole miss pick! I took a lot of personal flak for that one (I live in AL). Haha. I already threw them in my early line parlay for this week too. Can’t wait to see what you have to say about that matchup.

        • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

          Yeah I may not either but I still see some value in it. I am going to write about it in a piece we should have out this afternoon about all of our initial thoughts, why we like/may not like certain games.

          HA – tough living in Bama, but everyone should have known Ole Miss wasn’t a threat. If that kickoff wasn’t returned for a TD, game could have gotten really interesting. Bama only had 1 sustained scoring drive that wasn’t set up by a turnover or a great special teams play.

          I’ll include Ole Miss in the article this afternoon and thoughts. Any other games your interested in?

          Thanks for following.

  5. Trentmoney says:

    I’ll play devil’s advocate…

    3-score road fav that had to come from 10 down to beat conference rival last week in an intense game, with a conference road game on deck (@ nc st), goes on the road to non-conference team who will play like it’s their super bowl…you couldn’t ask for a better situation to play usf…if i knew anything about them i would

    La Tech was +3 last week vs Illinois…against a team with a similar power rating, goes back on the road for a back to back, but now lays -3…seems like the value is gone to me

    don’t have a dog in the race in either so i will root for you
    texas -2.5 for me
    good luck

    • Trentmoney says:

      actually took -125 ML as Fera is out and i don’t trust that terrible kicker to hit all his xp’s…

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      Trent — good call on FSU. They shoulda still covered this, but i’ll chalk it up as a bad play. I just couldn’t envision how USF was going to score on them.

      La Tech rolled, but their luck may be running out. They keep relying on huge turnovers. It may be skill, but I think they have gotten the lucky end in some regards playing some terrible QBs. Can’t wait to see the line when they get A&M at home.

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