College Football Betting Notes – Week # 4
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61 thoughts on “College Football Betting Notes – Week # 4”
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Good stuff Pez. Glad I can read some comments on games cause I didn’t get to catch too many this weekend.
Also, pretty sure you can add Pitt to your good bets. Not quite a better defense, but definitely a home, running dog gettind DD. Donkey bet on my part, but I just couldn’t help fade them. Atleast I kept the unit size low.
Pulled one of your moves and jumped on the early lines. Some have moved my way, and others surprisingly haven’t. We’ll see how it works out. May buy back some points in some.
Sabert, I was really surprised at how Pitt just dominated VT from the get go. Sunseri looked like a new man. He had a terrific game as did both Pitt RB’s (Graham of course and the freshman, whose name escapes me right now, is tough). Logan Thomas was overthrowing receivers by yards, not feet. VT has no running game to speak of.
I wasn’t able to check out any opening lines last night and I totally missed out on some good ones. AZ +24 (now 23.5) and Wazzou -17 (now 18.5) stood out to me.
Who’d you get on?
Totals have been coming out on Monday so far this season, and I haven’t been able to prepare for them in time, which unfortunately showed last weekend.
I got on quite a few, all for small amounts just to see how I did with the line moves.
I got on:
BYU +7.5 (thought a TD against 2 teams I have very statistically similar was too much)
UGA -16 and then again at -13.5 (Vandy hasn’t shown me ANYthing against a remotely decent defense; on the road here against best def they’ve faced while UGA is clicking on O)
Rutgers +5 (think it will go even higher once they announce TW is playing. I figured waiting from PK to +5 was decent)
LSU -18.5 (what the heck can Auburn do on offense vs. the best defense they’ve seen? I know CFBmatrix is calling for an upset here but I cannot see that at all)
Just wanted to see how I did with beating the lines and how it plays out. Not sure if these will be included in my write-up plays or not. Typically like to wait just before gameday on those to judge injuries, situations, etc.
We are in agreement on several of these. I hit BYU about an hour ago at +8 for 1/2 unit …. saving the other 1/2 unit in case it continues to rise.
Seeing Rutgers +7 now and just exchanged some emails w/ GoSooners about this game.
I have crashed and burned on Auburn 3 weeks in a row. No sense in me abandoning them now. Plus I am a sucker for home dogs. Mettenberger is still an unknown on the road.
No opinion on UGA yet, other than I agree that the Vandy offense has not played well.
What about South Carolina -10? I was not impressed w/ Mizzou this past weekend. They were worn down by both UGA and ASU in the second halves.
Yeah Missou isn’t impressive, but SC starting safety just got suspended which could be big.
It is also rumored that a bunch of Mizzou OL are super banged up, and if thats the case, I’d slam SC, even if Shaw isn’t playing. Mizzou cannot operate on offense if there is pressure on the QB. SC is always so scary on offense though, it could be a 17-10 game or a 40-10 game.
HA-I’ve been burned twice too. I may stay away besides the early small play. Auburn I just cannot see how they score besides McCaleb breaking something big. LSU defense is solid. Also, they were home last week too and almost squandered that one away. I cannot get a read on how they are going to come out and play.
Just wanted to drop a note to you guys and day thanks! Enjoy reading every ones thoughts and opinions. It’s pretty clear this is going to be one of the hottest sites around for CFB.
Was wondering about that SC game also. Need to look closer but initial thought is if SC has a chance to open things up – they will. I am sure they have Georgia’s score in the back of their mind and would like to win even more convincingly in this spot.
LSU is up to 20 now (where’d it open, 16??). At +21 I’ll bite.
Mizzou OL has been banged up for the past several weeks. ASU has a decent DL, but it isn’t as good as South Carolina’s. I just don’t think Mizzou can hang 4 quarters on the road against a quality SEC opponent. Will be curious to see of Franklin plays …. if the frosh starts I will have to take a hard look at the Gamecocks.
I don’t know. Boise’s home record is crazy. They didn’t have that tough of a game last week vs. Miami(OH), the latter half of which they looked pretty good. I can grab this at -7.5 and am thinking about hitting, but you guys have me questioning that instinct right now.
But maybe I’m just still burning over Boise torching me on Miami at +22, which I figured was pretty much a lock.
Just found the site and am liking it. Thanks!
Snow, thanks for the comment. Glad you found the site and you like it.
As for Boise, GoSooners and I have been going back and forth on this one all day. I just can’t see Boise being nearly as good as they have been the past few years. They lost too many NFL caliber players and a non-BCS school just can’t reload like Bama or LSU can.
Both Boise and BYU recruit from the same talent pool, so no talent advantage for either team. However, BYU is a lot more experienced this season than Boise.
GS’s point is that BYU is coming off a huge rivalry game in which they lost and of course Boise has the Blue Turf advantage.
All valid points. I’m going to stick with my gut and hit at -7.5, and come back to cry or gloat in a couple days. Haha.
Disclaimer: I’m a complete novice. No one take my words as actionable advice.
Boise is a very well coached team and even when they were getting pounded on both sides of the ball by Sparty a few weeks ago, they were still in a position to win the game.
I’ve just never had much success in the psychology department trying to figure out when a team will be up, down or whatever.
I can guarantee that for every great sandwich spot, emotional let down spot, look ahead, etc, etc, I can find just as many examples of that “spot” not being successful.
So maybe BYU will be emotionally down for this game, but maybe not. I prefer to look at the teams, coaches, match ups, etc, and in this case these two teams are extremely even IMO.
Also, let’s not forget BYU was down nearly three touchdowns into the fourth quarter. That 4th down miss by Utah late was a ridiculous call that lead to the last BYU touchdown. That game was not as close as the score foretold.
If Boise goes up a couple touchdowns at home, look for them to press even harder and tack on a couple more.
It’s really going to be imperative for BYU to get in this game early and keep it close.
7 points on 5 turnovers. Omg. Haha. Good call, pez.
WOW! Was that one ugly game or what? I have no idea why Bronco went for two in that situation. Peterson had ZERO confidence in his kicking game. BYU would have had a huge advantage in OT.
How about that review whistle just before Boise punched it in? Two calls to go for it when they should have kicked it. Nuts.
And yeah, BYU should have taken the extra point. After that drive, and Boise’s inability to score on offense, I can’t believe they went for 2 either.
I think you summed it up perfectly: ugly.
The Vanderbilt/Georgia line is continuing to go up as money gets dropped on Georgia. The line is currently at +15 and was +14 only this morning. I know that most of the nation thinks that Georgia has a chance of upsetting Alabama’s apple cart in the SEC, but I think Georgia is a pretender. They have all the right talent on paper, but I question their supposed “stout defense.” FAU has one of the worse teams in college football. They showed their obvious lack of defense against Georgia last weekend allowing +700 total yards, but I have seen FAU play and there is no way that Georgia should have allowed +300 yards and 20 points. Did Georgia defense just not care, or what?
Vanderbilt is not lacking in offensive potential, defense, or heart. I can’t see them laying down and allowing Georgia to just walk all over them this Saturday, but it looks like that is what a lot of people are thinking according to the line. I know that according to power rankings, the line looks a little light, but I am not convinced that Georgia is the real deal. What do you guys think?
BS, I’m going to take a shot on the under 55 in this one. I’m kind of in the middle when it comes to UGA, I think they have a solid team, but I don;t think they are at Bama or LSU’s level.
Vandy offense is very pedestrian. Georgia D is good enough to hold them to around 17 IMO (similar to what South Carolina did) … especially between the hedges.
Vandy D is also solid and this being an SEC game, I think we’ll see both D’s excel.
Stanford is just proof again of the fact that if you have a good physical running game and a solid defense, you can beat the prima donnas with their flashy offenses and talented defensive rosters.
Alabama has been doing the same.
Is it Kansas State’s turn to show this Saturday against Oklahoma?
BS, I kind of like K-State’s chances this weekend. They are definitely a potential running dog and the OU offense since the injury/departure of Broyles has really looked average.
I’m definitely looking forward to what you and GS have to say about this one, but I’m really leaning towards K-State.
I have to agree with you here. I may even split this one up and lay half on the money line. I really like the way Kstate has been moving the ball, and oklahoma, while putting up great defensive numbers so far, hasn’t really been tested yet.
I have this much closer to a pk than the +14 Kstate is currently getting. Can’t wait to see what else you guys have to say on this one.
I hope you are wrong about USC as a fan. I’m hoping this galvanizes the team, like the loss to ASU did last year. I’m very concerned about USC’s offensive line though.
Any thoughts on USC -16? Is this a spot where USC will vent its frustration and blow Cal out or will Cal keep it tight?
Seth, I agree that USC’s OL is a huge concern for them right now. I just read this at: https://www.nationalfootballpost.com/After-further-review-Week-3-9174.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium
USC’s struggles up front. The Trojans were completely exposed on Saturday night in Palo Alto against Stanford. We really saw how much ‘SC misses left tackle Ryan Kalil, who was a top draft pick this past April by the Minnesota Vikings, as well as starting center Khaled Holmes. It was shocking how much pressure Chase Thomas and the Stanford defense was able to put on Matt Barkley. The Trojans quarterback had to continually settle for short passes because he didn’t have time to make plays down the field. And when Stanford had the football, running back Stepfan Taylor looked like the best overall player in that contest. Cardinal head coach David Shaw has seamlessly picked up where Jim Harbaugh left off, and Stanford showed that it should not be forgotten in a Pac-12 that everyone was ready to hand to either USC or Oregon.
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As for Cal, I was concerned about their injuries, road woes and QB Maynard. I was wrong on all accounts. USC has owned them for the last 8 years, especially in the Coliseum.
But the Cal DL is pretty good too and should be able to get some pressure on Barkley. The big question is can Maynard play back-to-back good road games? If he can Cal stays w/in this number ……. USC will probably only score in the 30’s IMO.
On BC/NW…I should have won that one! 876 yards and 56 first downs, but only 35 points, that is almost impossible! For comparison, Louisville / NC had 4 less yards and 9 less FD’s, but more than double the points. I feel like in those circumstances I win that bet at least 85% of the time. Terrible Red Zone execution did us in there. Hopefully the upside is that we get better value on the next BC over vs Clemson. Pulling for FSU / Clemson to go under I guess..
Agreed jimmy, that was what I was alluding to in my commentary. I watched this game and both teams marched up and down the field on each other. But in the red zone they were both completely incompetent. It was a very frustrating wager.
Thanks guys, this is really interesting stuff. Gla I found you.
Thanks for stopping by WannabeCapper. I look forward to your future participation and game/team insights.
Pez
In the past 4 seasons BC has had a total listed in the 50’s 5 times…they have gone under every time
When Pez told me his totals on Tuesday I told him without even looking at any numbers that I didn’t like it…
When I checked the numbers I started to love the under…just waited until it hit 55 and pounced
NW is 101st in ncaa in ypp…
BC qb was next to last in acc last yr in qb rating and coming off a 16-32 day vs Maine
Both teams were in the bottom 30 in rushing ypc
Lots of other numbers that i’m not gonna re-hash…but like i said to Pez there are no playmakers in that game…the longest play from scrimmage coming into the game for both teams was 30-something yards…that’s pathetic!!
I know they marched up and down the field…but that’s the point with weak offenses…when usc/alabama/ok st get in the red zone they score TDs…when NW/BC get in the red zone they probably score fgs, might score tds, and might come away empty…
btw-as stated in my GOY article I took Scar -4.5 with a belief it could be double-digits come game time…i figured i was risking 1 point to make 6…worked out exactly right
good luck on your games this week
“I know they marched up and down the field…but that’s the point with weak offenses…when usc/alabama/ok st get in the red zone they score TDs…when NW/BC get in the red zone they probably score fgs, might score tds, and might come away empty…”
Trent, you nailed this point. These two entered the RZ 9 times and came away w/ 6 FGs and 3 turnovers (2 TO’s & a TOD).
However a game that produces 876 yards, 56 first downs and 9 trips into the red zone is going over 53/54 more often than not.
Another 2 games that I like, that lines are not out for yet are Ole Miss vs. Tulane and LA Tech vs. Illinois.
Ole Miss is coming off a loss where their defense got totally exposed. They will definitely clean up their act on defense this week, as well as getting back Trae Elston. We know this team can score and they will at will against Tulane. I think they come out and win really big here, and get some stops on the lethargic Tulane offense. I’d hit this anywhere in the – mid 20s.
La Tech is a solid team. Actually somewhat similar to Ole Miss. This team can score, and is no stranger to playing good competition. They barely lost to TCU last year in the bowl game, and hung in there with some powerful teams like Houston. I think they will be able to score vs. Illinois, and I think the game ends up really close. As long as La Tech doesn’t open favored, I’d look extremely close at this one as well.
I wonder if Illinois QB Scheelhaase is finally going to play. He’s listed as questionable. Both of Illinois starting safety’s are also questionable. I also hate that this is Tuesday and we still don’t have a line on this game.
Agreed. I feel like a stalker checking like every hour. I don’t get why there are 3 games we don’t have lines for. I think it probably opens up at Illi by 3? Although I hope its way more than that…I bet Ole Miss opens by 17?
Could be way off though.
I guess i am the only one in Amercia that saw Arkansas QUIT!
I am not sure if they will show up at ANY game the rest of the year. I think they are Done. JMHO,
Doug, Tyler Wilson saw it too. He called out several of his teammates for “quitting” Saturday.
One has to seriously consider Rutgers plus the TD this week. JLS is a joke as a HC.
I really like Rutgers here too. They have a solid D that can get after the QB, as well as a good running game. Not only that, but their receivers are very big and physical and could pose a matchup problem for Arky D.
I would not jump on this yet. It has moved to +7 with the public unsure of if TW plays. I expect it to get close to double digits if that announcement comes out of him playing.
Saber, you have a point with the line. Am I reading this right, the line went from +2 to +7 based strictly on Tyler Wilson’s after game Tim Tebow speech? I know these SEC teams are proud and don’t like losing to out of conference opponents, but damn, don’t you have to win first before thinking about winning by DD’s over a quality Big East team? I think the problem goes back to their first game. Arky even had trouble with Jacksonville State before depth took over and they pulled away. So they can say what they want in the postgame pressers, they still have to prove it on the field. Like you said, Rutgers finally has some weapons on offense for once. I was impressed by their receivers. The biggest problem with Arkansas is they can’t run the ball. And Rutgers can stop the run. So Rutgers is most definitely the running dogs here.
GS,
The line from my understanding opened at PK (I saw people on twitter going crazy about it). As you would expect, everyone slammed Arky (I still liked Rutgers even at a PK but didn’t jump on that). As soon as I could get on and see what it was at, It was up to +5 so I hit it there. It then has moved to 7, and that is before TW has even announced if he will be playing or not.
I think people see this to be a mediocre (actually good in my eyes) Big East team vs. a perennial SEC powerhouse. IF TW announces he is going to play, this line should move even move. Love the running dogs, with a good defense and a QB that is able to throw.
The thing about Arkansas though, guys, is that this team is just a few less players away from that 11-2 team of last year. Most all the key players are there from last year’s squad with the exception of ONE VITAL ELEMENT . . . . . . Bobby Petrino. It is just like Pez noted, John L. Smith sucks as a coach and he has NEVER been worth a shit even whenever he was at Michigan State. This team lacks leadership, pure and simple. Tyler Wilson might be the leadership that resurrects this program. Who knows? But, if they do get their heads out of their asses, AND if JLS will leave them alone and allow them to do what they do best, they could get all focus on this game right here and I don’t think Rutgers would have a chance in hell.
Wilson was right though. I thought they could hang with Alabama last week if they put their heart into it. Again, no one doubts the talent they have available. But they just outright quit, and quit early in the game. I’d like to take Arkansas again this Saturday, but there are just way too many unknowns at this point and time with this team.
Great insight, love the back and forth…. I’ll put my thoughts together as well to bounce off everyone. Do you guys have the same going on for NFL?
From last weekend, I bet against Arkansas purely due to bobby petrino not being there. A few players less than last year, and THE COACH. I lost taking the under at 51, although I do think it was kind of a bad beat.
I like Rutgers to keep it close this week, too. Although, the best aspect of D is against the run, whereas ARK is more of a throwing team. However, run well, play D well, and good coaching/leadership on the field.
I like Louisiana Monroe at home catching over a TD. What are your thoughts there?
The CHIEF, thanks for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. It definitely was a bad beat to lose that under at 51. It looked to me like Saban was just trying to run out the clock and get the hell out of town, but Arkansas still couldn’t stop them.
Plus nothing kills an under like cheap TDs, and Arkansas gave Bama 4 short fields (2 times inside the 5 yard line). Tough to keep the scoring down in those type of sitiutions.
I think Doug is right, Arkansas just quit.
As for ULM,do you think they can get up for a third BCS team in a row? GoSooners and I were discussing this game and he thinks the over could be a play too. I think it is at 68.5 and 69 is the next key # up.
I personally like ULM on the side too. Baylor’s defense isn’t very good, especially on the road. They allowed 24 at home to SMU who was just held to a FG by A & M last week.
I personally don’t see how they “don’t” get up for this game. At home, on Thurs, national TV, and I think they’re hungry to get back to winning after a tough loss. Also, beat ARK with Wilson, then lost to an SEC team on the road in OT. On the other hand, might be tough for baylor to get up against La Tech. However, when Baylor wins, or loses, it’s not always that tight, but i still think 7.5 might be enough. Also, best team Baylor has faced. This also has back-door cover written on it with the poor D if we need it.
As for the over, that’s a lot of points, and when they put it at 68.5, it’s almost like they’re begging us to bet under, and it’s a sucker bet. I kinda like the over too, but will probably stay away with it being so high. I can be convinced otherwise, tho!
Good point about them being on national TV. I have not looked at this one in detail yet as it isn’t at the top of my list of games/totals I like. But at this point I lean ULM and over. If ULM can score 28+ points in back-to-back weeks on two mediocre SEC defenses, they should be able to eclipse that against a less than average Big 12 defense.
I’ve been riding Western Kentucky this year, but I fear they’ve been discovered after beating an SEC opponent (hit the ML last week!). I am not familiar with Southern Miss, however. Is there value with riding WKent again this week with this type of spread (3.5-6.5)… I hate 4.5 point faves.
CHIEF, I wagered on WKU a few times last year, but haven’t touched them yet this season. I know they had a phenomenal ATS record last year and are already 2-0 ATS this year, but as I am sure GoSooners will point out to you, these non-BCS schools that have great ATS seasons one year, seldom repeat it the next year.
In the 10 games ATS they covered last year they were only favored in 1 (they were a pk at North Texas), and in the 2 games they’ve covered this year they were also dogs. Now they are a favored over a team that lost a lot of experience, but is traditionally pretty strong.
My two cents on this Baylor/ULM game. Guys I really like ULM, I really do. I like their QB and WR’s and their overall team chemsitry. And I’ve looked at this game for a long time and would really like to take them in this spot. But the one problem that keeps holding me back is “line value.” ULM has now “lost” their line value. They’ve gone from being 30 point dogs to Arkansas just 2 weeks ago, to the spread being cut in half to 15 at Auburn. And now cut in half yet again against Baylor. Eventually line value always catches up with every team. Especially when you are the dogs in every game. Unless you were a LSU or Stanford team last year who beat the spread every week because they could totally dominate every opponent they played. But that’s not the case when we’re talking about dogs instead of favorites. I definitely don’t want to talk anybody off ULM. They could very well cover. But I have seen this same scenerio many times before. My feeling is if Baylor covers this game it’s going to be high scoring because when was the last time we saw Baylor win a 17-14 type of game? Remember last season? They couldn’t set the totals high enough for this team. They set their bowl game total at 80 and everybody was saying take the under. And they end up scoring 123 points. I could be wrong, but so far other than not having RG3, Baylor hasn’t showed me they are much different than they were last season. Speaking of line value, I don’t know if the books have caught up with Baylor yet, but they’ve gone “OVER” in every game so far. And so has ULM.
I wonder if Rutgers figures in as a Running Dog?
I think Rutgers can definitely be considered a potential running dog.
I like your thoughts on LSM/Baylor.
How about the over Wed night. Both of these teams have had high scoring games in their first too, and 51 isn’t bad for college ball.
CHIEF, I have zero interest in spending time capping this game tonight, so I’m going w/ a pizza wager on Buffalo. Strictly for viewing purposes. LOL!
We are doing picks @ where I work. Just game winners in Div 1A. So far I am in the lead after week 3 with a total of 180 – 36. Here is a breakdown of the weeks I picked. Week 1:66-10 / Week 2:57-15 / Week 3:57-11.
Great job Chris B. I hope we can help you make a good decision on any borderline games. Heck, the way you are going I hope you can help us. LOL!
Thanks for the comment and we look forward to your insight.
Pez
I love ASU against Utah this week, Utah can barely move the ball and if BYU wasn’t so intimidated by the UTES everytime they play they could have easily won that game. I love ASU at -4 and an hour later it was -7. Lot of people must agree with my thinking.
Windog in Oregon
Winston, Devils look like a brand new team. They should have won that game last week. I DO NOT agree w/ Graham’s QB merry-go-round theory at all, especially on 2nd and goal from the 2 w/ the game on the line. I want my best QB (Kelly) in there in that situation.
My initial lean was Utah or the under. You are correct, Utes are pretty poor on offense, but they have a terrific defense.
I will be there Saturday night, and I rarely bet on or against ASU, so I’ll probably just go and enjoy the game.
Thanks for your thoughts on this game. Good for me to see what a neutral third party is thinking about ASU.
Great discussion, guys. Has anyone looked at Maryland +27 yet.
Something I like to do (picked up from GoSooners) is to look at last year’s spread. Maryland was -1 vs. WV. Now just a year later it’s a 4 TD difference?
My worry is Maryland won’t be able to keep up the pace, but their game plan going in should be ball control and keep Smith and that WV offense off the field. WV only beat 1 AQ team (minus bowl game) by 27 last year, and that was UConn (43-16).
Thoughts?
While Maryland’s defense looks quite a bit better than last year, their offense is going to have a really hard time keeping WV off the field. Their offensive production has been pathetic thus far in just about every category.
They really, really need their defensive to give them some seriously short fields to even have a shot to cover in my opinion.
+27 may seem like a lot initially, but I don’t like it.
Thanks for the comment and insight Tribetimenow. I am definitely looking at Maryland. I had an exchange on Twitter this morning w/ jimmyshivers, our ACC guru and he suggested Maryland first half before the WVU pace takes over in the 2nd half.
However, my response was similar to the way you are thinking, Terps should try and run the ball as much as possible.
Also, I think the Maryland defense is better than West Virginia’s.
I haven’t committed yet, but 4 TDs sure seems like a lot of points, and maybe West Virginia is looking a little ahead to next weeks Big 12 opener against Baylor.
Yeah. I’ll wait for a more thorough breakdown of the matchups before deciding on this one. That first half call might look good.
Also,
I think Arkey has mailed it in for the year, Rutgers should win this game with or withour TW. I think ULM mentally put them in a very bad place. These are 20 year old kids.
WD
Winston, you never know, but I sure am not going to argue otherwise. And there is no way JLS will right this sinking ship.
Rutgers +7 looks like a good play with or without them having quite, but if they have in fact mailed it in, Rutgers should win this game outright.
I’m in agreement with Pez here about Maryland. I think it’s Maryland or nothing. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen a team put in a subpar performance before playing their first conference opponent the next week. Keep in mind that Baylor is not only WV’s first conference opponent, it’s their first ever Big 12 game, and Homecoming. So with Holgersen not knowing exactly how his team will stack up in the Big 12, he’s not going to have his team going full out 100% against Maryland for 60 minutes if he don’t have to. I also think the Baylor game Friday night could also dictate how much effort WV puts towards Maryland. If Baylor should come out and bury ULM on the road, I guarantee you they are going to have Holgersen’s full attention. And Maryland will just be a sidebar until the big show next week.So I’m kind of hoping for a Baylor cover against ULM. Then watch how fast Holgersen starts pulling his first unit defense if he should get up by 3 scores or so. My only concern will be if Holgersen is looking to really pad Geno Smith’s Heisman numbers. Maryland’s defense looks good on paper. But they’ve played a couple teams who are pretty much offensively dead. But on trhe other hand WV gave up 540 yards to Marshall. So Maryland could have a little offensive success in this game.These are gambles you take. But like Tribe said, there is some line value in this game from last season. Although my numbers have WV -39, it doesn’t mean a whole lot because of the situational play, and being very early in the season.