SabertStxVii Week 3 College Football Picks
Week 1 and 2 have gone well for me, as well as for most of the people on TSE. I wrote in my Week 2 Recap about my thoughts from the weekend which can be found here. I refer to these notes as well as the Week 1 notes when looking at the Week 3 card. Below you will find my College Football Picks for week 3.
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14 thoughts on “SabertStxVii Week 3 College Football Picks”
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Good luck, Sabert. I don’t play many Thursday night games anymore. The best I use to do was to play every game and just bet on the home team no matter the line. That system use to cash regularly. Teams really get up for this game since they are the only game in the nation that night.
Sooner,
Thanks for the comment. I typically try to lay off of mid-week games but I have enough time to put forth a good analysis so I think it atleast warrents a little bit of a look.
The home team has been a super safe bet on the Thursday night ganmes, and I agree with you, they have the motivation on Natl. TV and at home.
Why I went with Rutgers is because everything I have read is USF talking about how complex it is to grasp the Rutgers defense and how they aren’t your traditional 4-3. They run more of a Steelers or Pro-style D where all of hte players are all over the place (makes sense with Schiano being the HC and DC there for awhile).
I think you add that in with the short week as well as Rutgers being a running dog, I think they can hang for awhile. USF should be able to pass themselves to a win. I need Rutgers to score around 20 for the cover I believe.
I think you’re dead on with your thoughts on Thursday night games. I went with USF and got burned. I thought they were pretty solid, but they proved me wrong.
I like your Auburn play, too.
Sabert, do you think a good play in this situation here would be also a play in Rutgers 1st half? I aee USF coming out a little bit flat.
Tommy,
Thanks for the comment. I actually had a discussion with one of my buddies last night who read the play and then asked me the same thing. There are a few different perspective’s I have on this.
First the game goes like we both think and Rutgers covers the first half spread. USF has struggled coming out of the gates. They scored 13 pts last week by halftime. That could be attributed to the long travel and higher altitude, etc. They will be confused against this Rutgers D coming off of short rest after a west coast came. What a lot of people don’t put a lot of value in is the fact that Saturday night Rutgers got to sleep in their own beds, and wake up Sunday, hit the training room up and watch film all day and get moving a bit. USF flew back Sunday and wasn’t able to do any of that so they are a day behind. Rutgers hasn’t scored too much early on either. I think the under could be a play if were going along this situation as well.
Here’s the other situation I see. USF basically picks up where they left off. They are coming off an emotion, end of the game win in Nevada. This game could have given the team and offense confidence that they are capable. They are also pumped up because they are on National TV. They come out blazing.
What do I think will happen? Probably a mix of both. I know that sounds vague. I think this game will be pretty smash mouth in the beginning, and once both the teams get loose that some plays will open up.
My best play of this game is on the Rutgers game line for a few reasons I mentioned. USF had less time to prepare and less rest. Rutgers offense smashes the ball and has had success against BJ Daniels and USF.
My leans outside of this would be U 1h, Rutgers 1h, U game. I see this being a 23 vs. 17 score. Worst case is So. Fla slings the rock well against this defense and Rutgers gets down early and has to move away from their run game.
Best of luck and thanks for following.
BOL with ALL your action as Always. I do Love your site!
Thanks a lot Doug and thanks for following.
I’m sorry but your description of Auburn’s performance against Clemson is ridiculous. Did you even bother to watch the game or check the box score? A QB going 11-27 is a pitiful stat line. The yardage was decent but most came on a wide open bomb to Emory Blake. “Auburn played good defense.” What?? They gave up 528 yards of offense including 320 (!!!!) on the ground! In what universe is that good defense? Again, sure they only punted 3 times, but they were 4-13 on 3rd down, hardly an indication of an offense in rhythm. Lots of holes on this Auburn team. QB isn’t trusted by his own coaches to throw the ball, coaches aren’t trusted by the players and fanbase, and the defensive fundamentals are just pathetic. ULM is going to chew up yardage after getting the ball out into space quickly. I can guarantee that the home crowd will turn negative quickly if things don’t go Auburn’s way from the outset… Lots of unrest there.
Congrats on the win last night and best of luck moving forward.
CJ,
Totally understand all of your points and not going to refute them; they are valid. Auburn has certainly struggled on O, and while I brushed it off, it should be a reason for concern.
There are certainly lots of holes on this team right now, which we’ve seen so far this season. This team was still an 8-5 team last year and only had some small holes to fill, and not really any on defense. I agree with you that both Auburn games got away from them, but they were playing two VERY solid offenses with lots of experience. Miss St returned quite a bit of talent on offense, and even more on defense while Clemson, well, we know what they’re like on offense.
When it comes down to it, I know how these things play out. I highly, highly doubt that the ULM players went back to campus on Saturday / Sunday and said, “okay, lets get ready for Auburn now.” I’m sure they had some fun and are celebrating the win over Arky. I’m not saying they don’t care about this game, because they do, I just think it means A LOT more for Auburn. After watching them dismantle the Hogs last week, Auburn will not take this team lightly.
This is more of a play fading ULM than it is touting Auburn, because I agree, they’ve looked like crap the first few weeks. What do you think the spread is here if Auburn played two trash teams before they face ULM? What my play came down too is being on the better team at home, desperate for a win.
Thanks for the comment and best of luck.
Not sure the traditional letdown angle really applies here. I am thinking that ULM’s win over Arkansas makes them a little more dangerous. They come into today’s game knowing they have a realistic shot at beating two SEC teams in a row and doing something special. Not a hard sell for these kids. They have tasted a big upset a few years back when they went into Tuscaloosa and beat Alabama. This time I would expect they are wanting more. I was impressed that the ULM quarterback mentioned Auburn in his postgame interview on the field. A good sign. Auburn, on the other hand, is going to be under intense pressure today. The boo-birds may be out early… not sure how the Auburn players will react to that. Lots and lots of frustration brewing on and off the field…
Great call here. Seems like you got a good read on this Auburn team. I really think they struggle rest of the season, even after nearly sneaking by ULM for first win of the season.
I think this is a great spot to play AUb this week. ULM coming off the win of their LIFETIMES last week. Tough to re-focus college kids and get them to stop believing their newspaper clippings after a win like that. While Auburn has certainly looked mundane in their first two outings, the talent gap this week should play itself out, and I don’t think Auburn will make the same mistakes that Ark made last week and try to throw the ball all over the field. Churn and burn….
Nice call on Rutgers, Sabert, and good luck today!