As I continue to scroll through the betting options currently available on DraftKings, I have found another bet that jumped out to me.  I see immense value on betting the New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs in 2021.

I was stunned to see the following odds available:

Will Tampa Bay Bucs make the playoffs in 2021?

Yes (-650)           No (+450)

Will New Orleans Saints make the playoffs in 2021?

Yes (-115)           No (-115)

To me, this is an incredibly lopsided adjustment by the oddsmakers.  I look at New Orleans as a premier, elite regular season juggernaut that has a history of choking in the playoffs.  Drew Brees’ departure has clearly impacted the Saints odds, but again I think that is a wild over reaction.  If you watched the Saints closely over the past few seasons, you should have seen that this is a team that is built on its aggressive, athletic defense, and its punishing offensive line that paves the way for Alvin Kamara.  Brees’ play has remained efficient, but his arm strength had significantly gone downhill and was no longer the focal point of the team’s success.

Maximizing Passing Efficiency Through Balanced Offense:

I think they can win double digit games in a weaker than normal NFC despite his departure.  Their balanced team structure is further evidenced by their 8-2 record since 2019 in games where Brees was injured.  They won these games with game-management style quarterback play with Taysom Hill and Teddy Bridgewater.  Since 2017, the Saints have won 11, 13, 13, and 12 games respectively in the past four seasons.  Last year, they still won 12 games with their best pass catcher, Michael Thomas, sidelined for over half the season.

This team has all the surrounding strengths to enable efficient quarterback play.  Starting with the offensive line, I think Ryan Ramczyk and Terron Armstead are the best offensive tackle combination in the NFL.  Saints quarterbacks have been sacked on under 5% of attempts in both 2020 and 2019.  The Saints also ran the ball an average of 31 times per game which ranked them 4^th in the NFL.  I believe that is an excellent strategy to maximize efficiency in the passing game.  It also doesn’t hurt when you’re handing the ball to the most dynamic running back in football in Alvin Kamara.

Retaining Elite Defense:

This is a top 3 defensive roster in the NFL.  I think the defensive line is loaded with athletic pass rushers, and it is complimented by a disruptive secondary.  Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen is never hesitant to bring blitz pressure, and I think it is a winning strategy with this personnel set.  This defense had no weaknesses last year as they allowed 3.8 yards per rush (tied for 1^st) and surrendered an 84.5 defensive passer rating (4^th).  Also, throw in that they allowed an impressive 20.9 points per game (3^rd).  I made the argument many times last season that this was the best defense in the NFL, and I have no reason to believe that they will have a significant drop off.

The Schedule:

Games projected as favorites: @Carolina, @ New England, NY Giants, @ Washington, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, @ Philadelphia, Buffalo, Dallas, NY Jets, Miami, Carolina, @ Atlanta.

Toss Up: Green Bay

Games projected as underdogs: @ Seattle , @ Tennessee, @ Tampa Bay

This is just my initial eyeball test, but I have them as projected favorites in 13 of their 17 games.  I think a 10-7 record would just about guarantee a playoff spot in a weaker NFC this season.

Over Reaction to Tampa Bay:

I take nothing away from the post season run that Tampa went on last year.  They played 4 straight incredible games led by the most clutch, best player in the history of the sport…..  However, their projected win totals, Super Bowl odds, and other future bets have been completed inflated by this 4 game stretch.  In the regular season, this was a team that was pounded by the Saints twice, completely overpowered by the Rams, and had a bad loss to a mediocre Bears team.  I think they’ve proven to be an extremely talented and clutch team, but I wouldn’t touch any of their regular season future bets.  The Saints have been and should remain the far more consistent regular season team, and I think there is also good value on them to win the NFC South as well.  The Bucs are being valued like the far superior team, but I think the matchup between these two teams is a coin flip at best.

Shorestein Says Bet New Orleans to Make the Playoffs in 2021 (-115)

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