Today is a pretty loaded day of college hoops, but fair warning, it’s top-heavy in terms of time of game.  Most of the big ones are in the early noon/1pm block, but I’ve plucked out a late game out as well.  If you are looking to get in on some college hoops action today, make sure you do it early….

Just in the noon/1pm block, we have Auburn at Kentucky, UConn at Xavier, Indiana at Ohio State, and West Virginia v. Oklahoma.  But the best one MIGHT be the one few will watch; Loyola of Chicago at Drake in a battle of top-tier elite Mid Majors.  Tune in for a bit, even if it’s just to say hi to Sister Jean…

Let’s see if we can keep up the winners this week after a nice 4-1 ATS two weeks (and the loss was on a bad-beat uncontested dunk with :02 to steal the Purdue cover…ugh)

TODAY’S FREE COLLEGE HOOPS PICKS:

Indiana Hoosiers at Ohio State -6.5  (Noon, EST)

An unranked team headed on the road to take on the #4 ranked team in the nation.  No contest, right?  Well, let’s take a deeper look because this is the Big Ten where anything can (and does happen), especially in a year where the difference between #3 and #50 is as slim as any in recent memory.

Indiana enters 6-6 in conference play and fresh off a huge week where they won both games; a two-point thriller over Iowa and then the three-point escape job in a classic let-down game against Northwestern.  In fact, most Indiana games have unfolded similarly the last few weeks; razor-thin margins regardless of the caliber of the opponent.  Their last four games have all been settled by two or less possessions.  For the season in conference play, their average MOV is -0.7 and the ATS is -1.2.

But Ohio State has started to emerge from the crowded pack nationally thanks to a five-game winning streak and reeling off eight of their last nine.  They have nice wins over Rutgers, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Iowa with the only blemish a two-point loss to Purdue.  They’ve won all but one of them by more than seven points and seven by low double-digits.  Their ATS margin in conference play is an impressive +5.4 – they are usually favored, and they usually cover, especially since an uneven 2-3 SU start to league play.  In the last month, Ohio State has the best case for “who is the third best team in the nation” (Gonzaga and Baylor are in a different tier from everyone else).

Indiana is a tricky team to wager against, because they have enough TALENT to jump up and clip good teams; see “Iowa” twice.  But perhaps that’s just a good matchup for the Hoosiers, because against other ranked opponents, the result have been far worse.  They are 0-5 straight-up against non-Iowa ranked teams, and three of the losses were by a comfortable margin.

I think Ohio State is the hot team and the far more consistent offensive team.  They rank 9^th in the nation in offensive efficiency.  Indiana clocks in at 127.

I’ll take the Bucks at home today in a close, but ultimately sufficient, cover.

FREE PICK:  OHIO STATE -6.5

 

Auburn Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats -2  (1pm EST)

Oh Kentucky, why can’t Vegas just quit you??  Seven losses in their last eight games, 3-8 ATS in league play, 5-13 SU overall… yet STILL favored.  Sigh…

I get it.  The switch could flip, they have talent, they are at home (in awkwardly, cavernously-empty Rupp Arena), and Coach Cal, and… stop it.  This team is DREADFUL and I’m going to keep fading them until someone unplugs the ATM.

The positive news for the Wildcats – they have lost just a single point in their last two games and have six losses by a single possession this season.  If you were an extreme over-optimist, you can say Kentucky could easily be 11-7 and in position to be an NCAA Tournament team.  You could also say – they ALWAYS lose, and since I would have to lay two points to back a team that has lost seven of their last eight…

Meanwhile, Auburn has a similarly frustrating track record.  After a stretch where they reeled off four of five, there was some buzz this might actually be the best team in the SEC.  They followed it up with three losses in their last four games, all but crippling their NCAA Tourney dreams.  The Baylor loss is no big deal, and they actually competed pretty well.  But losses to Georgia and Ole Miss were killers.

I’ll take Auburn for two big reasons.  They play defense and Kentucky can’t shoot.  UK is shooting 41.6% from the floor on the season to Auburn’s 44.9%.  That efficiency difference should be enough to send Kentucky to a familiar fate – a big play or two short in the last few minutes and another brutal loss.

FREE PICK:  AUBURN TIGERS +2

 

Villanova Wildcats -3 at Creighton Blue Jays  (5pm EST)

Villanova leads the Big East at 8-1, but also leads the conference in cancellations/PPDs with a whopping ELEVEN games.  TO say it’s been an odd year for Jay Wright’s crew would be an understatement.  Yet, they are finally back on a normal rhythm after a shake-off-the-rust clunker to St. John’s, thy’ve won their last two conference games by a combined 42 points.

Meanwhile, Creighton is ranked #15, second in the league, and a sure-fire NCAA Tournament team getting points at home.  There is a reason.  The Jays are a dismal 5-10 ATS in league play, while Villanova, despite all the starts and stops to their season, has largely handled their business, and is a tidy 6-3 ATS with a +11.7 average margin of victory (MOV).

There’s not a ton more to say about this one for me.  I’ll take the better team with the better metrics (5^th in the nation in offensive efficiency to Creighton’s 31^st) at a pretty fair number.

FREE PICK:  VILLANOVA WILDCATS -3