We are just over halfway through an admittedly odd college basketball season, and a few things have solidly emerged.  Gonzaga and Baylor, as I supposed six weeks ago, are CLEARLY the best two teams in the nation.  A second tier has started to poke free, including Villanova, Michigan, Texas, Houston, and Virginia.  and I THINK Iowa and Wisconsin, but both have some blemishes.   The SEC has seen Tennessee and Alabama emerge, but if you want to put a huge stack on either to make the Final Four, be my guest, but I’ll pass for now. From there?  Anyone’s guess.  Kansas run of supremacy in the Big Twelve is clearly at an end this season after Baylor laid the lumber to them this week.  The second-best team in the ACC doesn’t appear to be Duke, North Carolina or Louisville – all of whom are far from locks for the Big Dance, and might be…  Virginia Tech?  Florida State?  Clemson?  Even Pitt and Georgia Tech have thus far outpaced the traditional blue bloods.

We have six more weeks to get some clarity before the tourney, but my suspicion is that we will have just as much uncertainty outside the elite top few teams as major conferences trade blows, especially in the Big Ten and ACC.

That DOESN’T mean there aren’t some great wagering opportunities out there.  It just means we need to look at some data and not rely on big names on jerseys playing in front of raucous home crowds.

TODAY’S FREE PICKS:

Kansas Jayhawks -1 at Oklahoma Sooners  (Noon EST)

Speaking of ignoring the name on the jersey… Kansas is just a one-point favorite over Oklahoma, and the line still feels wrong to me.  OU is 5-2 ATS in conference play, with a Big 12-best +6.7 MOV ATS.  Kansas is just 6-7 ATS this season and has a negative MOV ATS this season, and just a +1.4 point differential overall in conference play.  This is NOT a typical dominant Jayhawk squad.  Sure, two of their losses are to Gonzaga and Baylor – but neither on was really competitive.  They also recently lost to Texas by 25 and lost to Oklahoma State.  They only beat OU by 4 at home, and are just 2-3 in their last five games.

Oklahoma isn’t great this year either, but they should be favored at home.  They lost by just 4 at KU and by two at Texas Tech.  They got thumped by Baylor, just like Kansas, but otherwise have similar conference performances – perhaps even a little stronger actual play on the floor than the Jayhawks.

I’ll take the Sooners on the moneyline and give away a small sliver of possible push to get down to -105.  I’m just not sold on Kansas this year, and think if they had the exact same profile, but were named “Iowa State” or “Kansas State” this line is -3 or -3.5.

MY PICK:  OKLAHOMA MONEYLINE -105

 

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Cavaliers -8.5 (8pm EST)

If you raised your eyebrows at the inclusion of Virginia in the second tier of elite teams earlier, despite being ranked much lower than the others in the AP Poll, you might have missed the last three weeks of the season.  Yes, UVA took a weird loss to San Francisco early in the year and followed it up by needing overtime to dispatch of Kent State (who lost to Toledo and Akron).  But they are a perfect 5-0 in the ACC, 5-0 ATS and have won those games by an average 15.4 points and 7-4 ATS. They have DOMINATED the league so far, and their last outing, the 85-50 thumping of Clemson.

That game is particularly important in my analysis.  Clemson profiles nearly similarly to Georgia Tech, though I realize GA Tech put a 18 point win on them last week.  Two upstart middle-of-the packers (or worse), lightly-regarded entering the season, who are flying a little too close to the sun being ahead of Duke, UNC and L’ville.  The Tigers wings melted this week, and I think Virginia’s smothering defense will bring the blowtorch to Tech tonight as well.

Georgia Tech has fared similarly well to Virginia ATS in conference play, largely because of how vastly they’ve exceeded expectations.  But three of their last four games have been cancelled, so rust could be a factor, and upon closer inspection, the two marquee wins; Kentucky and North Carolina, are over NIT or worse teams.

Virginia has simply pulverized teams and has legit challenge Baylor/Gonzaga potential.  I like them to reassert their best-in-ACC dominance tonight with a convincing victory.

MY PICK:  VIRGINIA -8.5

 

Providence Friars at Villanova Wildcats -11.5 (2:30 EST)

Doubt Ed Cooley’s Friars at your own risk.  Is there anything more reliable than a 15-16 win Providence team heading into March, needing to make up ground to get in the Dance, knocking off two or three ranked teams in two weeks to end up as an #8 seed?  They’ve shown flashes of that already with last week’s 74-70 road win over Creighton.  Sure, the Friars are 4-4 in conference play and have lost three of their last four games, but they are a Xavier’s buzzer-beater and a possession at home against Creighton from being 6-2 SU and 5-1 in their last six games.  Forget the record.  The Friars are not to be casually dismissed.

Villanova has remained ranked #3 for a while now, but has spent less time on the court than most top ten teams.  Their games against Xavier and UConn were cancelled (among three others) and they’ve only played once in the month of January, a two-point win over Seton Hall.  Could they have won impressively in all those games and asserted themselves as the third team in a nationwide Big Three?  Perhaps.  But that’s a lot of speculation required to justify a #3 ranking and a double-digit spread against a tough Providence team who profiles similarly to Seton Hall.  They are 6-3 and 5-3 ATS in Big East play respectively, with Seton Hall owning a 1 point edge in MOV and Providence slightly better in MOV ATS.  David Duke is a stud on both sides of the ball and will be a tough matchup for fellow Big East POY candidate, Collin Gillespie.

I’ll take the Friars with a big pile of points.  I am not knocking Villanova.  I think they’ll most defintely win the Big East yet again.  But this spread is WAAAY to big.  I’d have thought about ‘Nova at -6.5.  Giving a dozen?  Feels way to steep.

MY PICK:  PROVIDENCE +11.5