GoSooners College Football Picks For Week #2
GoSooners College Football Picks For Week #2
Last Week: 0-6 ATS
Not the start I was hoping for. I don’t think I’ve ever been shut out before. The only good thing is I didn’t make many plays. But I was definitely wrong about a few of my teams. I also got a few bad beats on a couple others. But that’s history. Hopefully I’ll get some of it back this week.
- Previous College Football Betting Notes – Week # 2
- Next Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Pitt Panthers Preview
37 thoughts on “GoSooners College Football Picks For Week #2”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
Thanks for your thoughts GoSooners. Have a Better week this week.
Good insights. Thanks!
Ahem. On your Michigan State play, I feel obligated to show you some valuable information sent to me by this really cool blog site a couple of months ago:
1. Avoid double digit road favorites
This is just a personal preference and I know plenty of good college football handicappers who wager on double digit road favorites. However, my thought process is since you have so many betting options available each weekend, why worry about wagering on a double digit road favorite?
“As I mention in our 7- part email series “7 essential tips for betting on college football,” when considering wagering on an away team there should be a “higher burden of proof” before making the wager. Teams typically do not play as well on the road as they do at home, and therefore laying double digits away is a risky proposition in my eyes.”
(Interject chuckling smilie with hand over mouth here.)
BS, I must confess that one is definitely one of my own personal preferences. I believe I can count on one hand the number of times I have broken this “rule.”
BS…That is more Pezgordo’s thinking than mine. I think there is some value there based on MSU’s talent. I’ll say I rarely bet DD favorites on the road. I probably don’t do it more than a couple times a year. And I always prefer my favorite have a great defense and running game. Check and check with MSU. I used to bet USC all the time when they were DD road favorites. I thought about betting them this weekend. I bet Oregon last year as 33 point favorites on the road against Colorado. Like I told Pezgordo about that bet. It was a good play precisely because nobody liked it. Yet we all knew the Ducks capabilities on offense, and how Colorado was a sitting target when they first entered the Pac-12.
Really love the Ole Miss play. UTEP is super hyped by the public from last week and no one knows what to make of Ole Miss (besides me). I know the Ole Miss team very well and Hugh Freeze really has changed the dynamic that is going on there. The players buy in and love playing for him. He also has a good grasp of his talent as well. Nutt was a great guy, but hes a moron for a coach. Had no idea what he was doing.
With that being said, Ole Miss has a HUGE step up in terms of QB here. Bo Wallace is the real deal. If you have a second, watch his highlight tape from JUCO. Its pretty absurd. He’s a prostyle QB that is rather quick and is extremely big. I think by the end of the year, you will be saying he is the 2nd or 3rd best QB in the SEC (behind Bray and Murray). They have weapons at WR in Moncrief and they have Darren Sproles-eque RB Jeff Scott returning this week.
Freeze is running a very up-tempo offense that is pretty easy once you get the hang of it. They never huddle (well, not that much) and the QB walks up to the line with 6 different types of play they can run. Then, depending on what the defense gives, calls out the entire play. He calls out OL assignments, WR routes, and RB routes at the LOS. Very fast paced and hard to predict.
Ole Miss needs to eliminate some of the mistakes, and tighten things up on defense. Not saying theyre going to be one of the better teams in the SEC, but atleast they will compete.
I’ll be at the Texas game next weekend. Hopefully they can put some sort of game together.
Good info right here.
Saber…That’s great info on Ole Miss. I was very impressed with Hugh Freeze last season. We’re talking about taking a 4-8 team to a 10 win season. And he wasn’t just getting lucky and winning close games, they won almost every game they played by double digits. That’s very impressive. And a credit to his coaching. He definitely has a system that works. And he obviously knows how to plug in players and make it work right away. I also like the way this guy has come up through the ranks of coaching. From being a NAIA HC (20-5) to coordinator, to AQ head coach to the BCS ranks. Those are usually the guys who turn out to be the most successful.
Thanks Doug and Alkimyst. I should have a few more plays in as the week goes. I’m just waiting for a few lines and totals to move my way.
GS, since you brought up the Oklahoma game from last week, and since we haven’t had time to discuss it, let me throw out where I think OU HAS to improve this season or they can kiss another Big 12 championship goodbye:
1.) They have to get stronger and better in the trenches. The offensive and defensive line was horrendous last game, and personally, I don’t see how it will get any better. I don’t think we have the personnel to band-aid the owies I saw last Saturday. The Walker kid is suppose to come back to play maybe by the time the Kansas State game rolls around which should help the defensive line a bit, but there is no help for the offensive line. They just have to get better.
2.) If the offensive line doesn’t get better, Landry better get more efficient at passing under pressure. Yes, he hit Stills for that long pass scrambling, but I didn’t see much else that shows me he is improved in this department. He has NEVER been a good passer under pressure, and I am fading them every time they play a defense that can rush the passer decently this season. He’s a great passer as long as he gets protection, but that is not looking likely this season.
3.) Once again, we have no running game. Waley looked like shit. I’m hoping that run was not a fluke that the JUCO kid put in the endzone towards the end of the game to seal the deal. The coaching staff is about to piss me off for promising us Millard and then not giving him the ball. I know they probably wanted to be very vanilla with their offense, but it nearly came back and bit them in the ass. There is so much more they could do with their offense if they would just open it up and do it.
4.) You know what thought struck me while watching the game? Whenever Price was jailbreaking his team for the punt block, and then he went for a fake punt himself, I thought, “You know, Stoops use to be like that.” But, he’s not anymore. The river boat gambler of the past has become a pompous ass who thinks he can just throw on everybody and win games. I long for the good old days . . . . . . . . . . post-smellyburger and Blake.
BS…OU’s biggest problem is they are no longer recruiting like they used to. We can get all of the WR’s we want, but we can’t get the quality of lineman that it takes to win championships. It’s gotten worse in the last couple of years. And this year it looks like OU is going to drop way down in the recruiting ranks out of the top 10, and barely in the top 20.
The difference between Stoops and Nick Saban is Saban and his staff are relentless recruiters who make it a year around job. That’s not the case with Stoops. I also think the OU staff came over better with recruits 10 years ago when 80% of the staff was under 40. Now they are all pushing 50 or more. And I don’t think they put the energy and effort into it like they used to. At least that’s what I’ve heard from some of the donors who are close to the program.
These things might work themselves out. But I have my doubts. Everything is cyclical when it comes to college football. It was the Sooners show for about 10 years under Stoops. Now some of these other teams like OSU and possibly WV are getting in on the act and moving up. Along with Texas, who will always be there because of their recruiting base. Stoops will probably either need to rededicate himself to his job or eventually move on. But he’s pretty hard headed. He might stay until Castiglione fires him. I still think Stoops is fundamentally a good coach like his brother Mike. But right now with dealing with injuries along with not having quite the quality of recruits he used to have, things are very shakey in Norman. I think we’ll have 3-4 losses this year. The games that they have a good chance of losing are Texas, WV, Notre Dame (way better lines on both sides), and i wouldn’t be surprised if we lost another game at home. KSU could jump up and beat us in that early game if OU hasn’t ironed out their line problems. OU simply needs to get more physical up front. And it would also help to recruit a linebacker that is bigger than my sister!
I agree. Some believe that we have a hard time keeping linemen because Schmitty is too hard on them. Offensive linemen look big and tough, but a lot of them are momma’s boys. Offensive linemen need to be able to be strong for short spurts, but Schmitty trains everybody like they are going to play wide receiver the whole game. Whenever you look at some of those offensive and defensive linemen for Alabama, they look like they just got up from an all day buffet, but they can sure push people around.
GS – like your thoughts on the FLA/TAMU game, but aren’t they both SEC teams now?! Guess you’re waiting on Saturday to make it official!
Hey guys,
Noob NCAA gambler here from Ireland. I’ve always loved football and have stepped up from little interest bets on a Saturday afternoon to taking it a little bit more seriously.
With a great deal of bad luck and downright bad plays, last week was dreadful to say the least. It seems that was the way for nearly everybody. So I thought I’d post some of the lines I’m looking at this week and get your thoughts. Admittedly I don’t know every team inside out or be able to spot a good line from a bad, but here goes:
Clemson -27.5 – high powered, exciting offence. Devastating at home, East. Michigan put 26 on the board @ Ball State?
Purdue +14 – ND coming back from a great opener in Ireland, might take some time to readjust, 14 points quite a big lead?
Wisconsin -7 – One more game under their belt than Oregon State?
Oklahoma State -11 – Arizona went to overtime, Oklahoma will have oiled up the offence after last week’s thrashing?
Savannah St +70 (I think) – A lot of controversy with them going against two BCS teams, Florida might take it real easy and not heap more shame after last week?
Also, when you guys say you beat the closing line, does that mean you cover your pre-game bets in play? When is it a good time to execute?
First off, my ancestry is Scottish and I love the Irish. My favorite music in the whole world is traditional Celtic language and I get along with contemporary Celtic as well. Next week I am going to a Scottish Festival in Tulsa, OK where there will be nothing but music and beer for three whole days. You will not be seeing me online that entire weekend. 🙂
OK, I’m not an expert handicapper, but some years I do pretty well at this, and sometimes I can even prove it. Kevin, I don’t like any of your plays and here is why: I can’t see Clemson getting up to play Ball State after playing Auburn in an emotional game last week. I think -27.5 is too many to lay on them.
I was surprised the way Notre Dame came out and played last week against Navy. They were a little rusty, but I like what I saw. This is their home opener and Purdue doesn’t have the talent to win this game unless Notre Dame just lays down here. Frankly, I don’t see ND doing that. If ND comes out and plays like they are capable of doing, they will cover easily.
Wisconsin could certainly cover their spread, but I have seen a lot of cappers on Oregon State in this game and it causes me not to want to play it all. I haven’t seen Oregon State play yet, as we all have not, and I don’t know if they are improved or not. I believe Wisconsin is down from their previous years though and that would hinder me from playing on them on the road if I were playing this game.
The Arizona/Oklahoma State line came out at -13. I wanted to play on Arizona because I think Rodriguez has the Wildcats improved and they should get better as the season progresses. Oklahoma State QB, Wes Lunt, is a true freshman QB who is making his first road start. I think there will be some mistakes made by the Cowboys in this game and I think it will allow Arizona to hang within the pointspread . . . . . if they don’t pull the outright upset.
Savannah State gets several hundred thousand dollars to play in these games against Oklahoma State and Florida State. Because of that money, these programs do not feel bad running the score up on these Pop Warner players. It’s kind of like paying a prostitute — if you pay $100 you get yours and don’t worry whether she got any pleasure out of it or not.
These are short answers to your questions without getting too deep, but if you are just getting into college football gambling, you may just want to play a few plays by tailing someone else’s picks, like GoSooners, through the season and try to learn a little more about it. There is no shame in doing so.
Good luck, dude!
Kevin, when I talk about beating the closing line, I am referring to the number at which I made the bet at vs the final number that was offered for that games’s side and/or total.
For example last week I took Clemson-Auburn Under 63 when it first opened. The final line offered on that game was 54.5 (that is the number it closed at). So I beat the closing line by 8.5 points.
Meaning that if you believe the lines to eventually settle at an efficient number after being shaped all week long by sharps and the public, then if you are consistently beating this number, you will win games in the long-term that others who are on the same side actually end up losing.
It really just comes down to probabilities. If you and I are always betting on the same games and I am consistently getting 1 point, or even 1/2 point better lines than you are, eventually I am going to win or push a game that you will lose.
Stevofrog..UF/A&M is one of my plays this week. I just put it in last night.
“But when in doubt I would rather put my money down on the SEC team.”
Was that accidental or on purpose? Either way I got a good laugh out of it.
kevin…Pezgordo or SoonerBS may want to chime in on these games. But just the quick rundown I have of these games:
Clmeson -27…Your biggest gamble might be the Clemson hangover from last week. It was pretty obvious they put a lot of effort and emotion into that game. I’m just not sure if they are going to come out and give a 100% effort this week.
Purdue +14..I actually kind of lean Notre Dame here. And I’ve been going back and forth on this game all week. Personally I think the ND hangover from going overseas is WAY overblown. I’ve been on long flights before, and there’s about a one day adjustement period when you get back. These are 20 year old kids, not your grandpa. They get over things fast. The main concerns I have with football players are how much they are focused for the next game. There are basically only two things I’m looking at with this game. Can that freshman QB (if Kelly elects to play him) do well against a pretty good Purdue front 7. And is Notre Dame looking ahead to Michigan State next week? That’s a real possibility. Notre Dame won at Purdue last year 38-10 as -12 favorites. And are an even better team this year. ND is always a difficult bet because they are a public team, and very seldom come out on top with their ATS record at the end of the year.
Pez likes Oregon State here. I lean Wisconsin. Although the game scares me because some strange things have been known to happen in Corvallis. The problem is we know Wisky is always going to be Wisky. But we really don’t know how strong a team Mike Riley will have this season. They’ll be better than the team who lost 35-0 to Wisky last season. But how much better I don’t know. Pez or Conan might be able to answer that better than me.
Arizona and OSU is another game we’ve been kicking around all week. I think this is a dangerous game for OSU. But if Zona can’t stop the OSU running game, it could be a long night for the Cats. And it could turn into one of those 45-28 type of games. If Rich Rod has the defense to be able to slow down Joseph Randal, I think we could have a lower scoring game than is expected, because Gundy isn’t going to put the game on his frshman QB Lunt’s shoulders. I think Randal is the key. He is the best all purpose bacvk in the Big 12. And he can really hurt you catching those short passes out of the backfield. I really want to take the under here with two green QB’s. But it’s a gamble. It reminds me a little of the Baylor/SMU game last week. It looked like it should go under, but there were a lot of skill players on the field who could make plays, and the game went over despite no RG3.
Savannah St +70…I was leaning Savannah St., but a very good capper I know made a good point about this game. You have to keep in mind here that teams like OSU and FSU have two of the best football/workout facilities in the country. And even the 3rd unit players on these teams are more physically fit than the players from this poor black school. So when the 3rd unit is better than Savannah, how do you keep the score down? Short of taking a knee, I don’t know what the coach tells a kid when he goes into a game like this. Back when Barry Switzer had the wishbone offense, he used to say “we pass the ball to keep the score down.” But that’s not going to work here.
Pez might be able to answer your last question better than me. I very seldom cover my pregame bets in play.
Thanks! Will take them all into consideration.
Is there anywhere here or online for highest rated spreads, or good tipster’s #1 fancies? Might help steer me in the right direction.
There are several “free” picks with explanation on this blog site. Look for the “week #2” blogs.
Good write ups GS.. I agree completely with the Fla-A&M thought process. Not playing last week is huge. Probably the same reason I like Wisky over Oregon St.. 1st game for Beavs too and you know Wisky will show a helluva lot more
RedEye..Great to see you. You were wise not playing that first weekend. I wish I had done the same. I had a lot of my half unit leans that hit for me. But I didn’t feel quite comfortable enough about them to post in here. Plus I didn’t want to post a hundred games the first weekend before I really get to know these teams. I still don’t know quite what to make of the Wisky/OSU game. But i would think it would be at least a slight disadvantage not being able to play a game first before facing a very physical team. But I won’t bet Wisky either. I get very nervous betting on midwest/eastern teams that head west as favorites. Too many unknown in this game. Even with Wisky we have new coordinators and a different QB this time. All I know about OSU right now is they averaged only 87 ypg rushing last year. That’s not going to get it done. Especially against a rushing monster like Wisky. The Beavs better be improved on the ground this year or else they could be in for another long season. GL this week.
Stevefrog…Good catch on my SEC comment. But I still can’t quite buy Texas A&M being an official member of the S-E-C brotherhood. It’s like somebody bragging that they work in a law firm. They just don’t mention they are the janitor.
BOL with your card. I do like this one much better.
Great read guys. If you want more good opinions in college football and nfl, check out what bettingresource.com cappers are on. 6 profitable years in a row…..thank me later.
GS, I had C Mich on my radar screen given the obvious RLM but you reminded me of the beat down I took with them last year in a similar situation with Sparty in the sandwich spot. For some reason I’ve never had much luck taking these MAC squads against the Big10, always seems like a blowout.
Sendacash, Michigan State isn’t one of my stronger plays. But given their recent history against this team, for CMU to stay on the same field, I’ve got to see it to believe it. I just rememeber the huge beatdown MSU gave them last year with seemingly little effort. But like you, I hate reverse line movement. If MSU comes to play, they shouldn’t have any problems. If they are looking ahead to Notre Dame next week, then CMU may cover.
GS, after what i saw last week, I thought i would add another value play on WV +650 to win Big 12… should be able to hedge that one at least…
RedEye, I’m considering WV. I’ll tell you what could determin the Big 12 winner. See what happens when KSU goes to Norman in a couple of weeks. With the problems OU is having with both lines right now, it wouldn’t surprise me if KSU upsets them. That would completely turn the Big 12 upside down and bring a lot of teams into play, including WV and KSU. The teams with the best QB play usually win the Big 12. That only leaves basically 3 teams. OU, KSU, WV who are capable. I’m actually considering KSU just as much as WV. But they have a little tougher schedule.
I grabbed some KSU at 22 /1 when I made my big 12 plays..I thought the futures i saw on Big 12 were as good as I have seen to create a few winners…Key was getting + money on OU
SITE IS ON FIRE TODAY
GREAT JOB
nice job GS !! great rebound !
Thanks guys. BOL next week!
BOL this week, as always. It was most fitting that you had a Monster week. The site is White HOT with winners.
Thanks Doug. BOL to you as well