(19-28 -4.25 units)

Sabres moneyline +120  1*

I thought about this one for awhile, and there were quite a few things to factor in here.

First off, there is no doubt that there are some biases involving this matchup. The first that would come to mind is the fact that Buffalo is currently amidst a five game losing streak, and having to endure what many may assume is jetlag after an overseas trip from Sweden in a two game series against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Second, is the fact that Buffalo was in a similar situation last year, as they were first place through American Thanksgiving last season only to find themselves completely falling apart after that. Third, Carolina just ended a four game losing streak themselves, and did so with a convincing 8-2 win over the lowly Senators. Last but not least, Carolina has proven to be a top puck possession team for three straight seasons now, and this would be the kicking factor as to why the Hurricanes see themselves as quite heavy road favorites coming into this one…while Buffalo ranks in the bottom third in CORSI and FENWICK.

The betting patterns on this matchup have also been quite predictable. While it is clear that sharp money in hockey can often be based off advanced stats, we are seeing some of that in the slight movement towards the Hurricanes early on in the day. The more square bettors, however, are looking at the records plus the home advantage and not really making any sense of the heavy favor to Carolina. Therefore, we have slight consensus’ in favor of Buffalo, but overall still quite a divide in opinions about this one.

However, I am not too concerned about what other people’s reasons are for betting this game.

My take is that Ralph Kruger is the father of innovation when it comes to handling young hockey players, and five losses and a long flight home from Europe should be enough to shake this team into better days. While many are banking on the jetlag and lack of activity to hurt the Sabres, this is a team that will be coming back to North America with every intention to get back to the winning ways. I expect the last practice held to be a priming for tonight.

Also, I am noticing that although Carolina ranks fourth in CORSI % this year (to nobody’s surprise), their opponents’ counter attack have been even more overall effective. In the past five games, the Hurricanes are 1-4 on the moneyline, but have outshot their opponent in each of those five. This goes to show that either sharp shooters or quality chances are happening the other way. Also, if you rewatch the 8-2 win that Carolina had in Ottawa, it was the product of a very poor showing by Ottawa. The first four Carolina goals could be easily described as flukes, and by then the game was already out of hand. A focused Buffalo team will not go down without a fight. Seeing from which the Sabres are not going to try to match the Hurricanes in puck possession by any means, they can focus better on their game needed to beat Carolina. I think this will be one of those matchups which may see the puck in the Buffalo zone, but they will make every turnover count.