“Shorestein Says” 2019 NFL Week 4 Pick

“The Money Zone”:  Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone.  Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit above 55% on a sample of over 500 games.  I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run.  This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc.  However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful. 

**2019 Money Zone picks are 7-11 ATS. All Time they are 279-228 (55.03%)  Full access to these picks at Shoresteinsays.com**

LA Chargers @ Miami +16.5:

The narrative around the Dolphins so far for 2019 is that they are essentially the equivalent of a college team playing in the NFL.  That has largely been true so far.  Here are some reasons to believe the Dolphins can keep it relatively close this weekend:

  • You could make the case that Miami has played 3 of the top 5 best teams in the NFL (Ravens, Patriots, & Cowboys). The Chargers are not close to that level of a team.
  • The Cowboys ravished the Dolphins in the running game. The Chargers have only averaged 21 rushes per game which puts them at 23rd in the league.  I don’t think this will be a major factor.
  • The Chargers are coming from the west coast and are playing in the 1 o’clock east coast slot. This is historically, a great spot for double digit home underdogs.
  • Although the front office of Miami wants to tank, Josh Rosen’s career is on the line. This is likely his last opportunity to establish himself as a starter.  He should have a decent chance at home against the Chargers who have started horribly on defense:

  • It’s risky to back a heavy favorite who has had major issues in the kicking game. Already two chip shots missed by LA this season.
  • The Chargers have struggled to protect Philip Rivers as he’s been sacked on ~8% of attempts (24th ranked)
  • The Chargers have averaged 1.7 turnovers per game so far.  Again, if you can’t control the ball its difficult to win by 2+ TD’s on the road.
  • The Dolphins have to cover a game at some point!

Good Luck Everyone!

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