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2019 Big Ten Picks – Week Five

The penultimate weekend of September brought a 2-1 week that brings me to 7-7 on the season through four weeks. The Big Ten slate is a bit heavier this weekend as a few teams are back from byes. The offerings are as follows: Penn State (-6.5) at Maryland, Northwestern at Wisconsin (-21), Middle Tennessee at Iowa (-23), Rutgers at Michigan (-29), Indiana at Michigan State (-14), Minnesota (-1) at Purdue, Ohio State (-15) at Nebraska

Ohio State (-15) at Nebraska – 7:30 on ABC

I am riding the Buckeyes. I know it will be a crazy atmosphere in Lincoln as College Gameday is in town and the Huskers are hosting a top ten team under the lights but I believe Ohio State is one of the four best teams in the country and they are going to flex their muscle in primetime. After seeing them up close, I believe the Buckeyes are the type of team that will relish the spotlight and play up to it as opposed to shrink from it. After surrendering an early lead to Miami of Ohio, Ohio State outgained the RedHawks 601-130 and won 76-5. They have beaten the ever-loving snot out of all four of their opponents. Meanwhile, Nebraska was fortunate to survive at Illinois and they gave up 38 points to the Illini. Adrian Martinez is still really good and the Illini were certainly aided by turnovers from Nebraska. Also, don’t look now but I sang the praises of true freshman Wan’Dale Robinson before the season began and he is now turning into the weapon I envisioned. I have no doubt the Huskers will play better than they did last Saturday night but I do not think this will be particularly close. This is a statement performance for the Buckeyes.

Northwestern at Wisconsin (-21) – Noon on ABC

Wisconsin appears to be outstanding and this might be the year that Pat Fitzgerald cannot summon the magic we so often see from him. The Wildcats will struggle mightily to move the ball against this Wisconsin defense, just as they did against Michigan State. They lost by 21 at home to MSU and I think Wisconsin has a substantially better offense than the Spartans do. Jonathan Taylor is a monster and he racked up 203 yards and an 8.8 yards per carry average against Michigan. Perhaps just as importantly, the Badgers got contributions from others. Jack Coan was 13-16 for 128 yards. Bradrick Shaw had 53 yards rushing (with a 42 yard run), Garrett Groshek had 40 yards rushing, Jack Coan had a 25 yard run. The only way this game is remotely close is if Wisconsin comes out very complacent and lets the Wildcats build a lead. The Badgers appear to be on a mission to take back the West and I think they stomp Northwestern in Madison.

Penn State at Maryland – UNDER 58.5 – 8:00 on FS1

It is absolutely scary to take the under in a game with as many explosive weapons as this one. However, 58.5 strikes me as a high number and I think this finishes closer to 50 than 60-plus. The early offensive outbursts by these teams mean nothing to me. Idaho and Howard are not legitimate tests. More telling, to me at least, was the offensive struggles against Pitt and Temple. I don’t trust Sean Clifford yet for the Nittany Lions and I am not convinced they have a real difference maker at running back. On the other side of the ball, Maryland has some terrific skill talent but I think their offensive line is going to have a real struggle with the Penn State defensive front seven. That is a disruptive unit that will give nearly every opponent a lot of problems. This won’t be a slog but I don’t think it will reach the 60s and I’m going with the under.

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