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“Shorestein Says” 2019 NFL Week 3 Pick

YTD: 1-1

NY Giants +6.5 @ Tampa Bay:  Let the Daniel Jones era begin in New York!  Tampa Bay hasn’t quite been the sieve on defense that it was in 2018, but I assure you that the 6.5 points that they are laying in this game is an over reaction to the small sample size that we’ve seen so far.  I expect the Giants to come out in this game with energy on offense.  The replacement of Eli Manning is long overdue, and the skill players should feed off this energy.  The Giants have had a tough go out of the gate getting matched with Buffalo and Dallas, two teams that have excelled on defense.  Only Chicago and Baltimore finished 2018 with a better defensive passer rating than Buffalo’s 82.60.  They’ve picked up right where they left off in 2019, holding their two opponents to a combined 73.10 rating.

Tampa’s defense has played well to start 2019, but I attribute that more to the opposition’s incompetence on offense.  The Bucs played well against San Francisco, but Garoppolo was clearly not ready to go in his first game back from injury.  The success that they had last week was primarily due to Cam Newton’s putrid accuracy.  The Panthers left plays to be made on the field as open receivers saw balls sail over their heads all night.

I refuse to believe that a team that surrendered these awful numbers on defense in 2018 has cured everything with largely the same personnel and an offensive minded head coach:

The Giants have run the ball exceptionally well to start the season.  Saquon Barkley and Co. have averaged 7.0 yards per carry in their two games (1st in the NFL).  Daniel Jones has proven that he’s been accurate in his limited time so far.  I think he has a great opportunity to kick start his future against a defense that has struggled against the pass for the last 2+ years.

I still believe that Winston is a turnover machine as he’s led the NFL in TO’s since 2015.  At any moment, he could throw a back-breaking pick or lose a head-scratching fumble.  I think this a rare opportunity to fade a turnover happy QB, with a suspect defense that is laying close to a TD.

 

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