Stanford O 6.5 (-135) Heritage

The last time Stanford won fewer than seven games was 2008, the second year under Jim Harbaugh.

Only once under Shaw have they won fewer than eight games.

This number is low because Stanford will be facing one of the most difficult schedules in the country this season. Their non-conference slate includes a home game against Northwestern, a trip to UCF and Notre Dame at home to close out the season. And of course the Pac-12 North schedule is brutal as the Cardinal face two preseason top 10 teams (Oregon and Washington) and a borderline top 25 team (Washington State).

However, this schedule actually sets-up pretty nice for the Cardinal as they’ll be facing their three toughest foes (Oregon, Washington and Notre Dame) in Palo Alto. Road games at UCF, USC and Washington State will be tough, but all three of those games are winnable.

Overall Stanford has 7 home games (5 Pac-12 home games) and two of their 5 road games are against the two weakest teams in each division of the conference (Oregon State & Colorado).

Based on their five-year Pac-12 recruiting ranking (per 247sports): 5-3-2-7-4, they only play 3 teams in conference (USC, Oregon and Washington) and one team out of conference (Notre Dame) who have a higher recruiting profile than the Cardinal.

I project them to win 7 games.

The key on offense will be an improved running game. The Cardinal were 11^th in the Pac-12 in rushing last year (107.92 ypg), which is unfathomable considering they had 4 all-conference players along the O-Line and an NFL quality running back (Bryce Love, NFL 4^th round), However, Love was injured all season long as were several offensive linemen. So despite less quality at running back and less experience along the O-Line, I expect their run numbers to actually increase this season, and with a talented and experienced QB like Costello that should translate to a more balanced and efficient offense in 2019.

Stanford only returns 5 starters to an average 2018 defense — 9^th in the conference in total defense (410.10 ypg) & 4^th in scoring defense 922.9 ppg) – but HC Shaw has recruited well on this side of the ball and I expect improvement. There are potential all-conference players at each level, including All-American CB Paulson Adebo.

I break down each position group in more detail here.

I’ll call for 8-4, but if they take out both Washington and Oregon at home, they’re winning the Pac-12 North (+730 at Bookmaker).