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2019 NFL MVP Odds

Making future bets on the regular season MVP is always a huge hit for the betting public.  But there are some things that you should know heading into the season before you decide to blindly throw money into a sucker’s bet.

As you review the MVP’s of the past several seasons, you should notice several key factors.  The winner is almost always a prolific passer on one of the league’s top teams.  Seems like a pretty simple concept, but you’d be shocked at how many people take running backs and defensive players who only take home this award in extremely rare cases.

To me, the best case for predicting an MVP comes down to three things:

  • Regular Season Wins
  • Touchdown Passes
  • QB Rating

It’s no shock that the past 5 MVP’s lit up these 3 categories:

All of these QB’s held ratings above 100, and were dominant offensive teams with the lone exception being Cam Newton at 99.40, but he was other worldly when also considering his running ability and 15 wins.

The chart below outlines expectations both from past performance and from the perspective of the sports books:

The name that should jump off the chart is Jared Goff.  Anyone who has followed my writing in the past knows that I was as skeptical as anyone about his ability to lead an offense.  But value is value…..

For 2 straight seasons he’s thrown 30+ TD passes, held a QB rating of over 100 and has led his team to double digit victories.  Yet, his MVP odds are far worse than anyone on this list.  The key question is, why?  I think the biggest reason is that he’s often thought of as a system QB (which very well might be the case) and the credit is given to the coach instead.  That perception unfortunately will decrease his chances of winning the award.  To overcome this, I think he will have to have some of his best games against elite competition (Cowboys, Saints, Bears, Steelers, Ravens all on the schedule).

Another factor is undoubtedly the egg that he laid in the Super Bowl last season.  This however, I view as a buying opportunity.  Bill Belichick simply overmatched McVay and was prepared for every wrinkle of the offense.  Goff’s lost and inept performance is still fresh on the public’s mind, and people aren’t willing to take the chance on his MVP odds.

Here is my list of selling points to take the long odds:

  • Goff has been virtually injury free his entire 3-year career.
  • Goff/McVay combination have dominated inferior competition, often running up scores to pad MVP caliber stats. They had 7 double digit victories in 2018 alone.
  • Rams Offense finished 2nd in Points scored in 2018 and 3rd in 2017.
  • Goff struggles in cold weather, but doesn’t appear to have any outdoor cold games scheduled. Pittsburgh on 11/10 appears to be the only possible game.
  • Loaded offensive line and skill players are all coming back.
  • Bill Belichick only coaches the New England Patriots and no other NFL team.

Other Considerations for MVP:

Personally, I think Brees, Brady and Mahomes all have equal chances to have elite-level seasons, but I think Brees probably has the best chance of that group.  To me, Rodgers, Luck and Wentz have too much injury concern to be a serious play.  Mayfield is intriguing, but I have well documented feelings about the Ravens and Steelers as the true contenders of the AFC North.  A decent hedge bet on Goff could be Russell Wilson.  Wilson will likely put up monster numbers yet again, but he will need to dethrone the Rams in the West to get serious consideration.

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