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NBA 3/25/2019

Magic +2

I know this is going to be an unpopular pick and that makes me like it even more!  Again at first glance this looks like an obvious play for Philadelphia -2.  “They are the better team, they basically just have to win the game straight up, they are going to go all the way to the NBA finals, yada yada yada.”  This is exactly what Vegas wants you to think and a huge trap game in my opinion. 

When you look more closely, the Magic are riding a 4 game winning streak and have closed the gap to just 1 game out for the remaining playoff spot.  The Magic are treating all these games like playoffs games for the rest of the season.  They have a nice motivational edge in that regard!

I can honestly say just fading bets that look too good to be true you can and will make money sports betting.  You don’t even really have to look at statistics or anything more than that.  In this game at hand I am literally reading between the lines.  The early money from the public was over 90% betting 76ers @ -2.5.  More often than not this will cause the line to move to -3 so Vegas can lessen their liability on the game and balance the action. 

In some cases the line doesn’t move at all or there is Reverse Line Movement like in this particular instance.  The line went to -2.  This is a red flag to me.  Vegas is baiting you and everyone else to keep betting Philadelphia.  I admit I sometimes don’t even know why they are doing this or what information they have, but no one has more resources than the guys making these lines in the desert. And what I do know is if Vegas is happy to take unbalanced action on a game they must have some good reasons or intel and I want to be on the smart side of it and ride with them!

However a couple statistics that I think will have you feeling a little better taking this pick and possibly some of the reasoning for Vegas to take a stand with this +2 line for the Magic are:

Magic have won their first 4 games SU in their current 5 game home stand.

Philadelphia is 5-10 ATS as an away favorite. And 15-20 on the road ATS overall.

The home team has won this matchup in all 3 games this season.

And of course the Magic only being 1 game out of a playoff spot now and every game is a must win. 

Thanks for reading and good luck!

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