NBA 3/8/2019

Toronto/New Orleans Under 232

At first I was leaning pretty strongly on taking the Pelicans +8 here (which might be in fact still a nice value play).  As I learned more and more about all their injury troubles I think I spotted more value in taking the under!

The Pelicans have been going through lots of ups and down (mostly downs) this year and it just keeps getting worse.  Jrue Holiday is going to be out for at least a week.  I honestly don’t think they are going to find enough offense in this game to contribute to the total going over.  Jrue has been averaging 21PPG, Davis has been averaging 27ppgs and his minutes have been strictly cut about 50%.  Another key component in charge of running the offense, E’Twaun Moore, is also out.  In my opinion they aren’t going to be able to outscore opponents like they usually try to do, so maybe they slow a pace a little for once. 

Maybe indicative of my previous comment, the Pelicans have also gone under the total the last 3 consecutive games, even while shooting above their season averages in overall FG% and a red hot 40.5% from the 3pt line in those respected games.  This tells me they probably have already slowed their pace of play down to some degree recently.  If you add Holiday and Moore being out into the equation I think this further supports the under.

All of this while on the other side of the coin Toronto has been struggling a little lately.  I think they are still adjusting to their new acquisitions like Marc Gasol and Jeremy Lin, and that is still going to take time to gel before running on all cylinders.  There is also the potential of the blowout with Toronto laying 8 points and I think that also favors the under.  

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