I’m going to keep this analysis fairly short and sweet. Let me point out that Memphis is definitely not a powerhouse team by any means of the imagination. However, as I have mentioned in previous posts it’s all about finding good situations for teams to be successful. Memphis has been very solid defensively all year. They do an even better job of slowing down the pace of the game which translates into being within striking distance down the stretch. This is where being the home underdog and getting 4.5 points is a nice cushion in these type of close, low scoring affairs.
Another strong indicator that I love to see is almost all the public money is piling on the San Antonio Spurs yet the line is not moving. To me this says that Vegas is more than happy with the unbalanced action and will take their chances with Memphis at the current line. Ask yourself this, if every game Vegas put out where 90% of the public was betting one side and those games won over 50% of the time, the sports books would go out of business. My educated guess is those games will win closer to 40% of the time. The lines made by Vegas are never on accident and my job is to read between the lines (pun intended) and to interpret exactly what Vegas is telling us.
I think what differentiates the novice bettor from the Pro is most people betting recreationally are just looking at the team names. Everyone associates Spurs with a long history of winning which is deservedly so. However upon closer examination you can see how badly the Spurs have been struggling, particularly in the last 4 games. They have given up at least 125 points in each of those contests. They have also lost all four of those games SU and ATS. In fact even more staggering, they have lost their last 7 consecutive games against the spread. The Spurs are also in the midst of their 5th road game of 8 in a row to be played. On the other hand Memphis is playing their 3rd game in a row at home which heavily favors Memphis’s chances here, and why they are my pick of the day!