Though the crimson tides of the south continue their eternal assault of the SEC and colleges nationwide, there is a contrast when it comes to the rinks. Tides are constantly taking turns, eroding different coasts, and moving in all kinds of directions in the hockey world. We are around the 1/3 mark of the 2018-19 NHL Regular Season, and like always, teams are finding their rhythms at different times and the musical chair continues in the Standings.

As like any other season, there are clubs that have made surprisingly positive impacts through the first bit of the campaign. Then on the contrary, there are others that are performing not quite up to the level where many expected them to be.

Today in my thirty game report, I will discuss which teams may be of value look at in phase two of the season versus the ones that might not be as profitable from a bettor’s standpoint. With the cream starting to rise, there will be a number of hockey clubs that may begin their surge right about now, and there will be some that are vulnerable to implosion any time soon.

Here are my analyses of the five teams to bet on in the 2/3 of the season, and the five teams to bet against in the same period:

 

TEAMS TO FADE

Buffalo Sabres:

Let’s start with the obvious. The Buffalo Sabres have been at the bottom for quite some time now, but it appears as though their rebuilding efforts are finally coming into fruition as we approach the end of 2018. While many anticipated that it was eminent that this Lake Eerie squad would progress sooner than later, nobody expected them to be tied for the third best record in hockey at this point of the season. With the right additions and great leadership by Franchise Captain Forward Jack Eichel, Buffalo is the only team that has successfully put together a ten game win streak this season; something they have not been able to do in a decade. With no explanation needed, it is clear that this winning momentum has propelled them right to the top in the given sample.

I am not going to dispute the fact that the Sabres are on an expected rise, but it would be highly shocking to see them maintain a top five spot in the league through the New Year. This is not a stab at the team, as they are deserving of the credit they have received so far. Simply, this level of performance is likely not sustainable through peaks and valleys for a young and growing group, and there are many teams that have yet to be in optimal form. It would be foolish to dismiss the Buffalo Sabres as playoff contenders, but expect a drop off pretty soon, as a .630 winning percentage is probably not realistic for this team to sustain.

 

Montreal Canadiens:

The Montreal Canadiens entered this season with little hopes from the Hockey world. espn.com had them ranked 28th out of 31 teams, and most of the more prominent hockey networks also had them ranked in the bottom five. So far, this young Habs team has looked decent, as they came flying out of the gates with a 6-2-2 start through their first ten games of the season. Right now, they sit middle of the pack within the division.

With a lack of experience and elite roster caliber, these pre season rankings were made with good reason. This Montreal team is an overall mediocre roster that is on the midst of, or maybe in early stages of a complete rebuild. The only perceived structural advantage that this team has over a large part of the league would lie in goaltending.

However, because the Canadiens are the pioneers of hockey and naturally have Original Six favor, the early overachievement may have blown a few things out of proportion. The Habs may continue to be overvalued for a bit, especially at home. Start betting against them while there is still value, before oddsmakers start to catch on and accept the team as one that will not be competing this season.

 

New York Rangers:

Very similarly to Montreal, the New York Rangers were also a bottom five ranked team at the start of the season, but right now sit in the top half of standings in arguably the most competitive division in hockey. With a 13-12-2-1 record so far, this team is seen to be overachieving in the eyes of many.

Let’s face it. This team made a rare official surrender statement towards the final phase of last season, and this was with full intention of a rebuild. Do not expect this process to translate into visible success this quickly. With the two Pennsylvania teams stuck at the bottom of the division, it would be naive to ignore the likelihood of one or both of the Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers finding their groove in the second phase. When teams get into midseason form, the Rangers will have a tough time maintaining their position in the division. Let’s not forget that New York parted ways with pretty much their entire core, and are operating under an NHL rookie head coach in David Quinn.

While the Manhattan squad may become elite once again if all of the construction is done correctly, don’t expect it to be this season. Take advantage of the Original Six favor to this team, and use it to bet on their opponents..especially at MSG.

 

Colorado Avalanche:

Unlike the previous two, the Colorado Avalanche sit in the same category as the Buffalo Sabres; a team on the rise with eventual cup contending potential. Colorado can be a little tricky to get a read on, as they have showed both signs of higher end contention as well as incompetence in the past half decade. They have also explored various coaching options in the process, and appear to have found some consistency with Jerad Bednar taking reigns. Colorado has also seen fruition with some of their top draftees, particularly Mikko Rantanen and Nate MacKinnon who currently sit first and second in league scoring (respectively). Currently, the very impressive Denver club sits tied for first place in the Western Conference with a 16-6-4 record.

Again, sustainability will be extremely difficult as teams find their groove in the West. also, the top line production pace is unrealistic. Once defensive structures become fortified, don’t expect this Avalanche offense to find their way to the back of the net so easily.

Will they continue to be a contender throughout the course of the season? most likely. Will they continue to maintain a first place position? unlikely. While the hockey experts continue to drool over this talented production, their respect remains high from the oddsmakers. As soon as a reality check becomes apparent, take advantage of the value in fading them…as the drop off is likely inevitable.

 

Carolina Hurricanes:

The Carolina Hurricanes sit in a category of their own, and it is certainly not a category 5. The South Eastern club prides themselves on heavy puck possession, and have done so in the past three season. The oddsmakers have also been putting a lot of emphasis on advanced stats, and incorporated a lot of it into line creations. This method always gives Carolina heavy favor, as they currently rank first in CORSI % once again at 57.1 so far. While the hockey world of analysts are shifting their views to a foundation of these advanced stats, let’s start by realizing that puck possession is a style more so than a necessity of success. Being a high CORSI team does not ensure success. Conversely, being a low CORSI team does not entail lack thereof. Puck movement is simply a style. If there is any proof to what I just said, it would be that the Carolina Hurricanes have not seen the Playoffs for an entire decade, and are not exactly on track to it this season either. The Hurricanes sit in the middle of the pack with essentially a 12-14 record for betting purposes, and are currently the 8th least profitable team in hockey with a -4.46 overall unit loss so far in the 2018-19 season.

The difference between the Carolina Hurricanes and the seven teams that have been less profitable than them? There is no reason to believe that the Hurricanes will turn things around.

I have observed more undeserved favor with the Hurricanes than any other team so far this season, and I have no reason to believe that the books will adjust if the team continues their puck possession dominance at or near this current level. The part they forgot to talk about with advanced stats, is that teams still need to ultimately puck the puck in the net for it to be effective. The Hurricanes are tied for second last in Goals For this season, and nothing about their mediocre roster would lead me to believe that this will change significantly. Keep taking the plus money that the books offer in betting against this franchise.

 

TEAM TO RIDE

Florida Panthers:

All the hype over the past few years has been about the Edmonton Oilers and Connor McDavid, or the Toronto Maple Leafs and their young talented corps. Even the Colorado Avalanche and Buffalo Sabres have received recognition in regards to a high potential once rebuilds are completed. However, the team that has been quietly collecting quality first round picks for quite some time now consistently would be the Florida Panthers. Year after year, they continue to be overlooked for a few reasons. First of, they play in a horrible hockey market. Second, they are always seen to be in the middle of the pack, but usually fall short of playoff contention. In reality, and with offseason additions, this Southeast Florida team has a potentially stacked team from top to bottom.

Oddsmakers took notes, as this team had pre season point totals in the 94-97 range, meaning that Vegas expects them to compete for the playoffs this year.

Well things did not really start as planned, as Florida lost four games out of the gates to start the season, and only strung together two wins in their first 11 games. The Panthers have somewhat clawed their way back to a 10-10-3-2 record, but are still not making enough noise to suggest that things are fully turning around.

While Florida may be a little more highly respected (especially at home) than some might notice, this is a team that has the talent to win against top teams. With a slow start, Florida will continue to lose favor to the more established franchises. Really pick your spots here, and if the Panthers start to perform better through momentum, it might be time to hop on the train.

 

Pittsburgh Penguins:

Although it may be highly difficult or maybe even impossible for the Pittsburgh Penguins to fully lose respect after a decade of excellence, there is a sense of turmoil in Steel City to start the 2018-19 season. The Penguins have yet to get into any kind of groove this year, and continue to struggle with their goaltender situation. Most would have still expected them to be above their 10-10-3-2 record so far.

However, books have taken notes and the near Dynasty Franchise is starting to receive betting value, particularly on the road.

As long as the team has Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin competing at an elite level, they will have a chance against almost anyone.

The smart thing to do would be to snipe value situations with the Penguins, as a large part of the roster has seen it all and done it all. When you see Penguins at plus money on the road, take it as a smart play.

 

St. Louis Blues:

The St. Louis Blues had a disappointing end to last season, as they missed the Playoffs by just a bit despite having one of the hottest starts to the season. This year is quite the opposite, as they currently sit at a 9-16 moneyline record so far. Similarly to the Penguins, this Blues have not been able to find momentum.

Some may argue that St. Louis is on a mild decline, but it should not be this bad. The perennial Midwest contender is operating through essentially the same core as the past few seasons. Although they have already gone through a coaching change this year, expect things to turn around.

With the Central being a very tough division at the moment, I am not suggesting that St. Louis will even make the playoffs. However, they should be competing on a much higher level than right now, and they should continue to receive plus money value until they get themselves into a respectable position.

 

Edmonton Oilers:

The baffling drop off from the Edmonton Oilers between 2016-17 and last season has caused them to lose enormous respect, and therefore, value is often present in their moneylines.

After two very contrasting seasons, the Oilers sit neither here nor there, but are starting to look significantly better under Ken Hitchcock’s reign so far. With preseason hopes being nothing of praise from an outside perspective, all the Oilers need to do is exceed the low standards set by oddsmakers, in order to be profitable.

The Alberta squad should continue to receive value, and keep in mind that when Phenom Connor McDavid finds open spaces, the team always has a chance to win games…especially now that they have a defensive coach to address their weaknesses.

 

Los Angeles Kings:

The struggles of the Los Angeles Kings so far have been well documented, and many will suggest that the recently near Dynasty Southern California club is on the decline with aging veterans. The Kings are tied for dead last in the NHL with 21 points, but are not exactly terrible with a 10-16-1 record so far to the point that things are out of reach.

As of late, LA has been looking more like their old selves on defense, especially with Jonathan Quick back in net and getting his first win out of the way in vintage fashion.

Simply put, I think this style just needed some warming up. While we might not get ideal value with the Kings the same way we may with the Oilers or Blues, it may be worth riding them against top teams. When their defense is on, they can battle with the best of them.

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