“The Money Zone” (the difference between my calculated spread and the actual spread is between 2-6).   Games that fall within this tier have hit above 56% on a 400+ game sample.  I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run.  Since I’ve been running the formula, about half of all games fall within this tier.  This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc.  I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.  Think of the Money Zone as the 401k of your bankroll.

**2018 Money Zone Record is 27-17 (61.36%) ATS so Far!** 

Full access to the Money Zone is at Shoresteinsays.com

“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week:  Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow.  Read below for my in-depth analysis.  **2018 Shorestein Says Picks of the Week are 14-9 (60.86%) ATS so Far!** 

Cleveland +3 @ Tampa Bay: I think the Browns have solid value in their first appearance in the “Money Zone” in two years.  I think the roles are reversed in this matchup as Cleveland is nowhere near the rollover that they were in years past.  Cleveland has made vast improvements to its defense in 2018.  The young talent is finally showing itself as they are now the 2nd ranked pass defense in the NFL at 76.80, and they are 2^nd in forced turnovers at 2.7 / game.  They clearly laid an egg in their matchup with the Chargers, who is one of the hottest teams in the league right now, last week.  However, I fully expect Cleveland’s defense to rebound against a historically turnover happy team in the Buccaneers.

Another strong reason to like the Browns is Tampa’s dreadful defense.  Mayfield may feel (see what I did there….lol) like he’s back in the Big 12 when he lines up and faces a defense that has yielded the following numbers:

I threw in the 2017 numbers to show that this isn’t a new problem for the Bucs.  Mayfield has shown that he can light up bad defenses when he led the offense to 42 points and threw 2 touchdowns against the Raiders.  Expect a similar performance against the Buccaneers easy-to-read schemes.  Hopefully, Winston throws a few picks to setup some great field position for the Browns.

Random Thoughts from Around the League:

• I felt great about my week 6 picks…. Until the games started. ☹
• I hope you enjoyed my Money Zone analysis. I think there’s a lot of great information to take note of in there.
• Also, I wanted to give a reminder that the games that have double digit variances on the spread vs actual you should probably avoid. This week, the Bears and Dolphins appear in that category.  Historically, you’d be better if you take the opposite team of the projected winner.  So if you’re using this in a pick ‘em pool, go with New England & Detroit.  The large discrepancies are typically due to injuries, like this week in Miami.

Good Luck!