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2018 MLB Fantasy Tips and Sleepers

Often times, Sports betting and Fantasy drafts can go hand in hand. Having a Fantasy team will encourage bettors to keep up with individual player trends, and use the information in relation with handicapping. However, Fantasy drafts are also a very popular pursuit that requires a great deal of strategy to win.

Of course, the first challenge in Fantasy Sports, is the draft itself. Rightfully so, we can’t pick whoever we want, as there is a certain order of each round where players are acquired by contestants. The more contestants in a draft, the trickier it gets to put together a team that is competent in every position, as the player pool becomes deeper due to distribution among more Fantasy teams.

Unfortunately in most cases, we can’t stack our teams with superstars from top to bottom, and something has to give in different areas. However, if you are sharp enough, you will be able to find gems to fulfill these needs.

Below I will list the ideal draft choice for each position, and then an under the radar value choice at that position:

 

Starting Pitcher:

Ideal Pick:
Clayton Kershaw

In any given season in the past half decade, we can expect Clayton Kershaw to be a front runner in Wins, ERA, Ks, WHIP, and there would be no surprise if he ranked first in all four in a season out of all Starting Pitchers. No matter what kind of Fantasy scoring style system a contestant is taking part in, he or she can expect this perennial Ace to acquire more points or value than any pitcher and possibly even any MLB player overall. The price you would pay for this, is simply the fact that Clayton Kershaw will likely not make it through the first three picks without being selected. No matter your approach, Kershaw will give you a fighting chance to win almost every pitcher category.

Sleeper Picks:
Lucas Giolito

Lucas Giolito has been one of the top prospects in baseball for awhile, and finally got to showcase himself at the end of 2017. The 23 year old dazzled the league as he finished his seven starts with a 3-3 record and a 2.38 ERA. Giolito has displayed tremendous composure and a solid backup curveball, and should continue to stump batters through their first couple times seeing him. While Giolito has not shown extravagant strikeout ability, and he most definitely won’t be a 20 win type of pitcher this season with the rebuilding Chicago White Sox, he is of phenom status and will continue to grow into the anticipated Elite potential sooner than later. No matter how deep your draft is, you can wait until around the mid 200s in draft position to take him, meaning that you can draft the majority of the key players needed in your roster before the kid even enters the screen for other contestants to see. Lucas may turn out to be an absolute steal from the 13th round or later.

Alex Cobb

If you are particularly aiming for Strikeouts as your main strategy to succeed in pitching, keep scrolling. However, if you are looking for a decent and reliable back end pitcher to strengthen your roster, Alex Cobb has been an extremely overlooked option. Cobb is an established knucklecurve pitcher that will benefit from being in the sea level altitude of Camden Yards, especially in the Spring and Fall. The Baltimore Orioles should be a half decent team this season as well, so expect the wins to come in as well while he is pitching from the back end of the rotation. At the 220 draft spot, you will not find a more established and reliable pitcher…if you are okay with sacrificing strikeout potential.

Rich Hill

Rich Hill has emerged as arguably the best curveball pitcher in baseball behind Clayton Kershaw. He also has high strikeout potential, at over a K per inning in recent years, and will win a lot of games being a Dodger. He also has the ability to keep his ERA in the 2s, and wear and tear will not be a factor with his newly molded and polished arsenal. The difference between him and guys like Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, and Corey Kluber? You won’t have to take him in the first round, but you will get nearly the same output from him as these guys. Rich Hill has been ranked in the low 100s in most Fantasy lists, so if you want to use the first 5-6 rounds to take care of the offensive stats, just remember that an Ace is still out there waiting for you once you are done with that.

Chicago White Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito

Chicago White Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito

 

C

Ideal Pick:

Gary Sanchez

In a position that has been traditionally known for its scarcity in offensive potential, there is no doubt that Gary Sanchez is the undisputed anticipated number one offensive contributor from the catcher spot, and it is not even close. Sanchez shocked the world upon arrival, hitting 20 HRs in 53 games of his first season in 2016. While understandably, he did not maintain that pace last year, he still finished with 33 HRS in a shortened season of 122 games on his end. He also finished with 90 RBIs, which is more than any other Catcher by at least 10, and a respectable .278 Batting Average. Expect the pace to continue or even exceed last year, as he remains on an even more stacked Yankees team. The only problem is, you have to be willing to take him by the late second round at the latest. If you are a Fantasy player that values position scarcity, this is the guy you want to have in your lineup early.

Sleeper Pick:

Salvador Perez

Quite surprisingly, Salvador’s stock value has gone down with the Royals organization since winning the World Series, but his numbers really haven’t. The 27 year old Venezuelan has gradually progressed in every Fantasy Offense category since 2014, and is actually just coming into his prime right now. With a pace of HRs in the mid to high 20s, and RBI counts reaching the 80s, and Batting Averages ligering around the mid .260 mark, you can’t ask for more from a player at a position of scarcity who is ranked in the 140s. If you miss out on a top catcher (particularly Sanchez) in the first few rounds, don’t forget to put Perez on your watch list to take later on after you have built the core of your team. Keep in mind that other Fantasy Players will also be filtering pitchers once they realize their slot is empty, so he may go a little earlier than the 140 spot.

 

1B

Ideal Pick:

Edwin Encarnacion

Even with a horrendous start to the 2017 season with the Cleveland Indians, Edwin Encarnacion was still able to finish with the third most homeruns out of any First baseman with 38, and the fourth most RBIs at that position with 107. EE is a true slugger, and will go on extended hitting streaks at several points throughout the season. If he starts off on the right foot this season, expect his batting average to be more towards the .270s than in the .250s like last year, and expect his RBI count to remain high from the Cleanup spot on a very offensively stacked team. Edwin will be expected to go in the low 40s, so this could be your big slugger in the third or fourth round.

Sleeper Pick:

Justin Bour

Justin Bour is coming off a career season in 2017, and is gradually starting to establish himself as a dangerous slugger in the majors. In his short career thus far, Bour has not hit less than .260 in any of his four seasons. In the two seasons that he played 100 or more games, he did not hit less than 20 Homeruns. While overall runs and RBIs may take a hit with the dismantling of the Miami Marlins in the offseason, Bour will remain one of the bright spots in that lineup, and is coming into his prime with year to year progress. For a solid hitter ranked in the 160s, you can create value for yourself by taking him in the later rounds while the more overhyped sluggers who put up similar numbers go in the early rounds.

 

2B

Ideal Pick:

Jose Altuve

I don’t think a whole lot needs to be said here when a player is coming off a season hitting .346, and also getting over 30 stolen bases, over 80 RBIs, and over 20 HRs. Altuve is the best roto player in baseball, and has maintained solid numbers in all categories since his first couple seasons in the majors. You may win batting average in many weeks just off this guy alone. While the second base position has seen more and more offensive contributors recently, this is still a position that you can gain leverage on by having the best guy. This one is a no brainer if you have a top three pick in the draft.

Sleeper Pick:

Yoan Moncada

Yoan Moncada has been a top prospect for quite some time, and became a regular for the Chicago White Sox in the later part of 2017. Like his teammate Giolito, he has also fallen under the radar a little more than most phenom prospects. Moncada went through struggles in early MLB adjustments, but turned into a solid player as the season goes on. Look for him to have a breakout season anytime now, and become the go to guy in Chicago for offense along with Jose Abreu. Getting the former number one prospect in baseball in the 150s, that’s not bad. I expect him to be a 20 Homerun guy with batting average in the high .200s this season. If you want to focus on other stars early, then let this future superstar be your sleeper second baseman pick.

Chicago White Sox second baseman Yoan Moncada

Chicago White Sox second baseman Yoan Moncada

 

3B

Ideal Pick:

Nolan Arenado

I don’t think there is much to explain with this one, as Nolan Arenado is not only a top slugger in baseball, but also plays in Colorado. Anyone who plays for the Rockies has the benefit of extreme altitude for at least half of the season. Generally, this automatically adds a significant slugging and batting average increase. With this 26 year old who is just reaching his prime, you can expect near 40 homeruns, near .300 batting average, and 130 RBIs in any given season moving forward. Assuming he is healthy, no one is expected to be more valuable than Arenado from the 3B position. Expect him to go in the top five though.

Sleeper Pick:

Scooter Gennett

At 27 years old, Scooter Gennett had a breakout season in 2017, and the progress was very significant as he joined the Cincinnati Reds. Genett doubled his homerun total between 2016 and 2017, and also saw a 41 RBI increase and a .032 batting Average increase in the same time frame. Could this all involve a bit of luck and timing? Maybe. However, the bottom line is that Scooter Gennett is coming into his prime, and hit like a true consistent slugger last season with a .295 avg, 27 HR, and 95 RBIs. Not bad for someone ranked in the 200s. Don’t be surprised to see him repeat, and if he does, this is could be one of the steals of the drafts, as Gennett is also versatile at 2B and OF in some Fantasy leagues as well.

 

SS

Ideal Pick

Trea Turner

Apart from Jose Altuve, Trea Turner is potentially the next best roto player, and this is from a Shortstop position of scarcity. Turner came into the league and turned some heads in 2016 as he finished his 73 game campaign with a .342 batting average, 13 homeruns, and 33 stolen bases. Last year, Turner saw significant injuries that caused him to miss almost half of the season, but in the games that he did play, he finished with a .284 batting average, 11 homeruns, and a whopping 46 stolen bases. In taking Turner, you can expect to be golden in batting average and stolen bases throughout a full season, as well as the Runs category if needed. No other shortstop will get you this type of production in all categories combined.

Sleeper Pick:

Marwin Gonzalez

When you think of the Houston Astros, Marwin Gonzalez may not be the first name in mind, but also keep in mind that every person in that Houston batting order is dangerous. Marwin just happens to be that utility guy that gets shifted around, which also means he can be placed at SS,2B, 1B, 3B, OF. Gonzalez finished with 23 HRs, 90 RBIs, and a .303 batting average last season, and there are suggestions that he may have broken into his prime and found a low pressure role in Houston among other strong hitters. At a draft spot in the 160s, Marwin will not only offer value on offense, but also value in position. He can address several positions of needs, leaving you room to relax in the early rounds without having to worry about needing too much position strategy while drafting your true hitters.

 

Outfield:

Ideal Pick:

Marcell Ozuna

Despite a plethora of sluggers from the Outfield positions, and some being bigger point producers than Marcell Ozuna, Ozuna himself is arguably the fastest developing hitter from any of the outfield positions. Ozuna finished with 37 HRs, 124 RBIs, and hit above .300 for the first time in his career, in 2017. Those numbers are MVP worthy in some seasons. At 27 years old, and on a good team like the St. Louis Cardinals, I don’t expect these numbers to drop significantly. While he may not hit 50 HRs like his former teammate Giancarlo Stanton, he may prove to be a better roto player with a higher batting average if he can maintain it. More importantly, you don’t have to wait until the 40 spot to take him. Instead of getting caught up in the first two round chaos of everyone trying to get big name sluggers, maybe address the positions such as 2B and SS with those picks, and then take Ozuna after the smoke clears a bit.

St Louis Cardinals outfieder Marcell Ozuna

St Louis Cardinals outfieder Marcell Ozuna

 

Sleeper Picks:

Eddie Rosario

One thing that is generally known, is that the Outfield will have a very deep pool of hitters. You will need at least three outfielders, so perhaps you may want to address one of those slots with a strong and established hitter, and then cheap out a bit on the rest while you address other positions of need. Eddie Rosario may be a prime candidate for a low key Outfielder, as he is yet another young player coming into his Prime at 27, and also coming off a career year. With 27 HRs, 78 RBIs, and a .290 batting average, the growth of Rosario pretty much reflects the progression of the Minnesota Twins. Looks for this team to continue to compete, and for Eddie Rosario to be one of the driving forces for them from the 130th spot.

Carlos Gonzalez

Two or three years ago, we would not be talking about Carlos Gonzalez on a Sleeper list. However, after last season, his rank is now in the low 200s despite being a Colorado Rockie. Last year was a bad year for Cargo, as he finished with the lowest totals in almost any category than he ever had since his third season. There has also been no secret that the 32 year old has seen his share of nagging injuries over time. However, being a Rockie and looking for a rebound season, the ability to get back on track is boosted by the altitude nature of Denver. I expect him to have a much better year than 2017, and for him to make that 200+ spot selection look like a complete steal.

 

Closers/Reliever:

Arodys Vizcaino

Although some closers are visibly better than others, I don’t like to put too much emphasis on picking a reliever at a high spot, because of a few reasons. First off, we cannot predict how many save opportunities a closer will have. Second, the deviation of points between one reliever to another is not large, but also not predictable either. Instead of wasting a 5th round pick on Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman, use those picks to build your team, and then take the Atlanta Braves Closer Arodys Vizcaino in the 180s. Another good choice is Jheurys Familia from the New York Mets, who is also around the same rank and has fallen off radar due to last year’s injury. Don’t waste picks on closers, but make sure you get your share of them. Chances are, having a late pick closer will not earn you much less scoring as getting a top closer in the early rounds. The player you select instead at that high spot, will likely have a better impact than if you selected a closer.

 

The Saturday Edge

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One thought on “2018 MLB Fantasy Tips and Sleepers”

  1. Sab SabertStxVii says:

    Give my boy Albies some love!

    Also, Joey Gallo in OBP leagues…could easily lead MLB in home runs and is being listed around 18/20 to 1 at offshores to lead league in HRs.

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