GoSooners College Football Picks For Week #1
GoSooners college football picks for week # 1
My favorite time of year is finally here.. What makes it especially sweet this year is Pezgordo and I are getting to make our own college football picks on our own site without getting lost in the clutter of ten thousand other people doing the same. And being able to make our own rules as we go. Like I did in the RX Forum, I’m looking forward to getting imput and comments from you guys on these games.
- Previous BCS Mess – Could the 2012 season be 2007 all over again?
- Next Chris Copeland’s College Football Picks – Week # 1
41 thoughts on “GoSooners College Football Picks For Week #1”
Leave a Reply to plaz Cancel reply
MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
Thanks in advance and Best of Luck to ya as Always!!
Thanks Doug, and BOL to you this season.
Thanks. I failed to mention how much i enjoy reading yours and Pez comments you guys are very good at research for sure.
Looking forward to all that goes on here.
Good writeup on Cal. I can tell you first-hand that the fanbase is excited about getting back to Memorial after playing across the Bay in SF. I noticed the spread moved down from -11 and was holding out hope that it gets to -10, but that’s probably too much to ask for. I’m also going to look at playing Nevada under the TT, as I agree that Cal’s D is underrated. BOL
GoBears, half-point calculator has buying down from 10.5 to 10 at -119.5, so you could just buy the 1/2 point to 10 (-120) for a little extra security (push probability is almost 4%). That is what I did.
Of course if in fact it does go down to 10 it is a complete waste of an extra 10%, but I think this one heads back up to 11+.
I like both of these plays. You have to go back 4 years to find a winning margin more than 7 points between Kentucky and Louisville. This is a lot of points and I think it is largely based on hype since a lot of prognosticators have chosen Louisville to win the Big East this season. This is normally a closely played rivalry game.
I will not be playing the Cal/Nevada game myself, but I sure see the reasons for a Cal play. The only thing you have going against you is the fact that the TOUT newsletters are rolling out and several have Cal as a big play this week. 🙂
GoSooners….As always great write ups and good luck this year. I’ve been following you on the rx since 2006. Great to see you with your own site.
GoBears…It probably wouldn’t hurt to wait for a 10 if it comes. But if it’s like SoonerBS says, if Cal is one of the top picks by the touts this week, the line will probably stay the same or go up. I seriously considered taking the under 55.5. I think Cal will be ready for them on defense. By the way, I’ve been to Berkeley many times. It’s a great atmosphere for college football around there.
SoonerBS…My only concern about the Cal/Nevada game is Cal’s ability to score. Hopefully Maynard has shaken off his growing pains from last year, and will put up some better numbers. He actually cut way down on mistakes in his last 4 games last season, but I would like to see him improve on his 57% career completions. That will be the gamble that me and I guess the touts are taking here. After facing Texas defense in their bowl, you would think Nevada’s D will look much more inviting.
Lonnie…Thanks for the kind words, and welcome to the TSE. It should be a fun year without all of the RX clutter. BOL this season!
By all accounts Maynard has looked infinitely better both in spring ball and now in camp. If some of the young receivers can step up and help Keenan Allen and the OL can do a decent job, Cal’s offense might show glimpses of the early Tedford years. My biggest fear in this game is that Pendergast, while a great D Coordinator, has struggled with stopping the Pistol (see not only Nevada in 2010, but also UCLA last year). He’s got to figure it out sometime…right?
Nevada’s last 4 road openers vs BCS schools: 20-69 @ OR, 0-35 @ ND, 17-69 @ Mizzou, 10-52 @ Neb …. I’ll give Cal a shot.
NV was pretty much rebuilding the offense last year. It will click this year, but, you are right the D will be down.
1. Cal will have an tuff time pulling away in this game.
2. NV will eat clock and move the chains.
FG either way, but, if it lands w/CAl winning by 11 we will both be happy campers.
GS – been following you on rx for a few years. Thanks for posting good w/u’s and congrats on your own website. BOL this year and hope to see you in FW on Dec 1!
Thanks Stevo. I’m looking forward to OU playing both TCU and WV this year. In this first season it’s going to feel more like an out of conference game with these teams. BOL this season.
Hey GS, really like the new site and continued success as usual. Wanted to get your insight on a couple games. Wazzu +13 @ BYU, part of me wants to take the wait and see approach to see how the Cougs are reacting to Leach’s new system. On the other hand, Wazzu has some legit weapons on the offensive side of the ball that I don’t think BYU has answers for. With the volume of passes that Wazzu will throw, the backdoor is always there.
Also, thoughts on Oregon/Arky State O66? Malzhan is the guy there now replacing Freeze but their offenses are pretty similar IMO. Aplin is a really nice, scrappy QB who does it all. Even with Oregon’s new approach to defense, I still think Arky State can get 24-27 which means we ‘only’-lol need 42 out of Oregon’s breakneck offense to hit.
BOL!!
GoSooners, I have not heard much about the Spartans QB, Andrew Maxwell. Even though it is his first start, he has been with the team for 3 years. If any, what impact could this have on the game? Much like Boise, do you expect any drop off from Cousins?
I played Oregon/Arky St Over 66 on Monday. The Ducks should be good for at least 49 (I hope). I did read that 2 of Arky WR’s have been suspended however.
Lonnie, i always expect somewhat of a dropoff from a QB who passed for over 9,000 yards. But the one good thing with MSU this year is I think they’ll have a better rushing team. Expect to see a healthy dose of rushing and for the TE to get a fair share of dump passes. I think the under is also a good play here
With Oregon/ASU I expect that game to go over the number. If and when the game starts getting out of hand, I expect backup QB Bennett to come in and show what he can do with the offense. Remember, Bennett almost transferred out when he didn’t win the starting position. If he gets his opportunity, I’m sure he’ll be coming into the game with a bit of a chip on his shoulder. Oregon can probably put up a half a hundred by themselves in this game.
Xmas…I prefer to play a wait and see with Wash. St. Leach has his QB and WR’s in place. But he doesn’t have a great line to work with, which could make it tough facing a good BYU defense in this first game. Leach’s wide-split blocking schemes aren’t usually something that’s learned overnight. So there will be some growing pains there when they face the good defenses. WSU also allowed 32 ppg last year. So they need to show a lot more improvement on D. And they rushed for only 85 ypg. Even in Leach’s scheme they’ll have to run the ball much better than that to stay on the same field as BYU. With this line going down, I have a lean to BYU.
Sooners, I always enjoyed following you on theRX. Thanks for the insights. I don’t know much about the Pac-12, as I am a BIg Ten guy living in the south now, but I really like your analysis on the other two games. LVL-KEN is usually a fairly close game. Getting that many points, I think Kentucky is the play as well. Louisville may be getting too much hype this pre-season. As for MSU, I hate fading Boise, as they seem to usually cover in big spots. I know Boise wasn’t that great against the number last year, as they were often DD faves, howeveer they lost a TON of talent, so they may be scrambling early on this year. That being said, I think Peterson is a great football mind and a solid recruiter who finds kids in places that most coaches fail to look.So, it;s often hard to gauge where his new guys will perform when they get their opportunities. I won’t be playing this game, but good luck to you on all your plays.
Nice website, very well done!
Thanks Plaz. BOL this season!
Alkymst, looking back at the Boise/Michigan State line, my biggest regret is I didn’t go ahead and get the early under total when it was set at over 50. It might still be good, but if it’s anything I hate it is getting in late on a total after it’s crossed key numbers or already made it’s run. I probably wouldn’t have played the game at all if it was 7 or higher. I just think this game is going to be a slugfest that will be played in the trenches. One thing that is guaranteed is Boise will give a 100% effort for 60 minutes. My feeling is MSU will wear them down. But the MSU QB will HAVE to make a play or two in this game for Sparty to cover. BOL this season.
GoSooners, great to see your write ups again and best of luck to a profitable season. Curious if you had any opinion on Vandy +6, I think this is a good spot for them. With the exception of Bama, they played the better teams in the SEC tough last year.
Rowdy, I’m leaning more to South Carolina in this game. Especially with the line being under a TD. It’s true that Vandy played everybody tough last year. But was anybody really expecting them to do what they did after coming off a 2-10 season? I know I wasn’t. The problem is this season they won’t be sneaking up on anybody. And SC has had a summer to prepare for them. Plus I still remember the game from these teams last year. SC really frustrated Rodgers and the Vandy offense. They simply couldn’t do anything that night. Now I know every year is different. But i don’t think the strength of these two teams have changed all that much from last season. Vandy will have to much improved on offense to keep this close. What it comes down to for me is SC is simply the more talented team. And with this first game being an important conference game, I think they’ll go into Vandy very focused.
Is this your final card? Will there be others?
Thanks in adance as Always
Doug, I’m going to be looking at a few more games tonight. I might have one or two more plays IF some of these line movements go my way. But to be honest, I don’t have a strong feeling about any of the games this weekend. Which is unusual in the first week. But I feel the linesmakers have really set some tighter lines in this first week than they have in the past. And since 8 out of 10 people bet the favorites, it makes it even tougher. I don’t usually bet many totals like Pezgordo, but I’m looking at a few. Right now I’m kind of liking the Oregon/ASU over. But it has moved a full 5 points off of the opening number.
As you have mentioned, there not much room for error there. What makes it even worse the number, the real number is long gone. I myslef “like” that total also, but i missed the number. BOL if you partake into that.
I remember when you first started at the Rx. You seemed to have a handle on the Big 12. Sinse you have sorta branched out i notice. I also notice that when Conan zeroed in on the West Coast he had a Killer year. Both y’all on the Cal side which i do like very very much.
Doug…I would love to do just the Big 12. But the problem is it’s no longer the same conference. And it doesn’t even have 12 teams. It’s hard to zero in on a league that has two teams going out one year, then two more teams the next year, then two more teams coming in the next year. The reason Conan is good at what he does in the Pac-12 is because he’s basically had the same teams to work with all these years. And through time he’s got to know their tendecies. I have no idea how these new teams are going to do coming into the Big 12. In other words, there is no longer any history with the Big 12. It’s for all practical purposes a new conference because very few of these teams have a long history with each other. It has also been a very inconsistent conference to try to cap the last couple of years becausei t’s in transistion. Which is another reason I branched out to other conferences.
GS, Sparty was the right side. Complete domination, but those turnovers kept Boise in the game. Sparty D and Bell were impressive. Maxwell not so much.
Turnovers Turnovers they killed what chance Michigan State had in the game to cover.
Any thoughts on Ohio St covering 24 in Urbans first game? Thanks, this is SSI btw, dont know if u remember me… nice site..
Falcon…I guess I’m one of the few who like Miami, Ohio in this game. I’m just not sure if Braxton Miller is the right player for an Urban Meyer type spread offense. I question his passing ability. And I also have questions about OSU’s receiving corps. They have very little experience there. The 3 WR’s who came out of the spring as starters have a combined 31 catches. Plus i think people could be underestimating Miami’s defense a little. They have a veteran senior heavy defensive line, and some key defenders back who ranked third in total defense in the MAC last year. They’ll be one of the top units in that conference this year. My feeling right now is this will be a low scoring game. But Miami does have a QB who could keep them in the game. Dysert threw for 3,500 yards and 23 TD’s last year. I think the 90% of the people who are on OSU just automatically think Urban Meyer is going to snap his fingers and they are going to come out and blow teams away. I’m not so sure about that.
thanks for the comments, didnt get to catch the game, looks like Urban did ok in the opener, ill be checking u out,
best wishes
Falcon (SSI)
goes to show you how bad the gators are…muschamp is in over his head…mark it down
I agree Trent. Florida didn’t look good on either side of the ball. They remind me of Texas last year. They have two QB’s that can’t read a defense and complete a pass over 5 yards.
14 penalties…can’t make a decision on choosing a qb…team played uninspired…coming off a 6-6 regular season…it’s not going to end well…the chorus is gonna start to get louder…just watch
Lets hope it gets Better, Real soon.
Louisville number came right back to the opener of 14. GO Kentucky!! Strange first weekend looks to me like. I suppose i should be used to strange things happending on saturday just like they do on sunday.