Betting on Baseball – Why to consider betting on the first 5 innings
If you’re betting on baseball, you should consider taking advantage of betting on the first 5 innings.
Anyone who watches sports knows that a baseball game can be long. A lot of different personnel are involved in the outcome of a game, and ultimately a lot of things can happen.
Baseball is the only sport where the team matchup can be exactly the same as the day before, but the handicapping approach is completely different from the first game to the second game.
When I first begin to decide on what to bet on in an MLB game, one of the first things I look at is the pitching matchup. This can be the difference between a +150 moneyline and a -250 moneyline for a side in the matchup between two of the same teams from one day to another.
In fact, the majority of MLB handicapping revolves around the starting pitching matchup. No matter what your capping style is, the starting pitchers will have a strong influence on your decision to make a bet.
As I mentioned earlier, an MLB game can be a grueling 9 innings, or more if extra-innings are involved. The starting pitching will lead you to take a side or total, but in reality, it is rare for a pitcher to last all 9 innings.
What I am getting at here is that one of the relievers can come in and completely destroy your analysis of the matchup.
How many times have we seen bullpen implosions, or one of the closers blow a game?
How many times have we seen various line alterations and strategic management come into play in a tight game?
How many times have we seen the starting pitcher get pulled in a bad situation, leading to a single inning implosion that contributes to a lost bet?
Alternatively, how many times have we counted on an entire game to reach an Over, only to have the first part of the game be high scoring while the bullpens come in and shut the door?
The answer in every question is: FAR TOO OFTEN!
The great advantage of betting the first five innings is that your fate is typically in the hands of the two starting pitchers. This means that more random factors, such as the benches and both bullpens usually will not come into play.
Now, I understand that at various points of the season, some of your capping also involves bullpen nature and tendencies. Or if some of you take it to the next level, you also know exactly who is likely to come out of the bullpen, and how they may do against that particular lineup.
However, many games are capped simply based on what happens in the first five innings of the game. In the first five innings, you can expect your starting pitchers to still be pitching more often than not by the end of the fifth inning. You can expect them to be at their best energy and focus wise. You can expect the hitters to be in their most natural form. You can also avoid emotional late game uncertainties.
So the question is, if you are capping solely based on starting lineups and pitchers, then why would you risk venturing into the unknown when all of that changes in the later stages of the game?
The second half of a baseball game introduces random elements out of your control that can cost you the win.
You may like the cushion on a total for a full game. You may like the comfort of knowing that you have three hours or more to win your bet if things are not going well in the early going. However, if you are not handicapping bullpens or late game activity, you are basically just decreasing the effectiveness of your handicapping by betting the full game.
Whereas early in the game, you can look at a known lineup against a known opponent and not worry about the rest of the game causing interference with the result of your bet.
By no means am I telling bettors to limit themselves to First Five Inning Bets, and ignore their reads that involve the standard full game bet. However, I encourage you all to increase the purity of your research, and find options that eliminate as many unexplored variables as possible.